I agree with Jeff... Keep the trough in the east, and then by the time the pattern reverses, it will be good enough to pump some instability northward, and the days will be longer. Leave winter as it is through March, then bring on spring with a western trough/eastern ridge. Trough in the west would mean a greater chance for some strong energy to round that said trough, and come up negatively tilted through the plains, into the moisture/instability which it would have pumped northward.
As for CDC, looking at the medium range teleconnections, particularly NAO, would suggest that the eastern trough will hold, if not intensify, before a ridge begins to build in by April (most likely). HPC says we are stuck with winter for at least the next 7 days in the northeast...
