I think I'm gonna scream...

Joined
Oct 10, 2004
Messages
1,412
Location
Madison, WI
:x AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At this time last year, I was watching brilliant CG strikes crash all around on the way home from school.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST CORNER INDIANA
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1130 AM UNTIL 500
PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Whereas this year...

THERE IS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE MED RANGE MODELS THAT THE PATTERN WL BECOME VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEXT WK. IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD RESULT IN THE DELIVERY OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

EVEN THOUGH THE CALENDAR MAY SAY IT IS MARCH 1ST ON TUESDAY... NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN CAN STILL PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO.



[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/images/storms/2005/022705snow.jpg

:evil:
 
Consider your pain felt. A year ago today, my posse and I embarked on the first chase of the 2004 season. Today, my Atmos. Physics prof said we'd observe the shapes of the ice crystals if it was still precipitating this afternoon. As much as I've looked forward to March, it hasn't been very kind to me so far. If the GFS is to be believed, the next 10 days will bring more of the same: cold and snowy.

Ben
 
Just remember, some of the BIGGEST snowstorms the midwest has seen, occur in March and even early April...

I'm a man of two extremes... I will take a blizzard, and I will take severe thunderstorms... Just not the crap in between (i.e. 4 inches of slush, garden variety showers, etc.)
 
This is one of the few things that DOESN'T thrill me about my upcoming move to Wisconsin. Actually, I thought Andy's snow photo was pretty good, even if I'd rather be looking at a supercell.
 
URGENT...BREAKING WEATHER BULLETIN!!!

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
8:21 PM CST TUE 01 MAR 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

*LOUSY WEATHER ADVISORY*

FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS: COLD WITH OCCASSIONAL LIGHT SNOW. THAT'S ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW. WE HERE AT THE NWS ARE BORED AS HELL WAITING FOR SPRING TO ARRIVE SO SOME REAL WEATHER CAN HAPPEN. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL BE ON VACATION. LOOK FOR A POSTCARD FROM WARM (AND OCCASSIONALLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE :D) FLORIDA.

Well, this is what they should issue. :lol:
 
I'll second the lousy weather. Temperatures here are colder than they've been in several weeks now, as we drop into the teens for overnite lows. Its been snowing off and on for the last two days, but with intervals of sun, not much accumulation has been occuring. But...the fact that its happening is enough to annoy me anymore. I'm ready for the sunshine and 60's we had a week ago!

The long term does show a nice warming trend for the western Midwest...before another arctic blast shatters our dreams of warming temperatures, and cumulonimbus clouds. :(
 
:lol: I think you have better spread that lousy weather advisory for much more of the northern plains including IA/MN/NE and the Dakotas!! I can't wait to at least hear some thunder and see some lightning. RIght now I don't care if it isn't severe, just some nice thunderstorm activity to get the blood pumpin'!!
 
I usually don't mind winter too much. It can be fun tracking and watching the big snowstorms. However, we haven't had squat for snow here this year. (I see it's even worse for you Jayson lol).


Spring is getting really close now though! 8)
 
:lol: Joel indeed it has... Although I am up to 12.85 inches of snow, but none of it is on the ground.

Justin, I know exactly what that is going to show and I don't want to look at it!!!
 
Personally I couldn't care less about a 975MB cyclone wrapping up unless said cyclone has plenty of moisture and CAPE in the warm sector! Otherwise it just means another unpleasant, windy day.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
Just remember, some of the BIGGEST snowstorms the midwest has seen, occur in March and even early April...


Which is fine, because just south of the snow is usually a decent severe weather threat, but we arent even getting the normal late winter storms. Just cold and flurries. I remember a few chases into Illinois, where I had to drive through winter storm conditions on the way back to Wisconsin. I just got the wx worx threat net and am just dying for some storms now.

Doug Raflik
[email protected]
http://www.wxnut.net
 
Originally posted by David Wolfson
Better to get the Trough of Death pattern out of the way before storm season.

Exactly... Law of Averages has it that the negative East Coast 500mb height anomolies (read: mean 500mb trough) and positive West Coast 500mb height anoms (read: mean 500mb ridge) will likely be replaced sometime by just the opposite... I'll take an eastern U.S. trough now through the next month (March) if that means we'll have a mean west coast trough / east coast Ridge (read: southwest flow aloft across the Plains) in April and May... :)
 
Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
Personally I couldn't care less about a 975MB cyclone wrapping up unless said cyclone has plenty of moisture and CAPE in the warm sector! Otherwise it just means another unpleasant, windy day.

Hey, don't hate just because we had more snow! :lol:

No, but really, I am fascinated by ALL apsects of meteorology, provided that we at least get SOMETHING interesting, whether it's severe thunderstorms, blizzards, ice storms, or a significant wind storms... I find that it keeps me busy and relieves SDS...
 
A slight ray of hope...

CPC sez:

There are indications, which must be considered somewhat uncertain this far ahead, from most of the recent GFS model runs that the pattern might be starting to change during this period, with an increasing tendency for troughing over the West or the Great Plains...

...rrrrgh...I can see the light at the end of the tunnel...gasp...almost there...

:)
 
I agree with Jeff... Keep the trough in the east, and then by the time the pattern reverses, it will be good enough to pump some instability northward, and the days will be longer. Leave winter as it is through March, then bring on spring with a western trough/eastern ridge. Trough in the west would mean a greater chance for some strong energy to round that said trough, and come up negatively tilted through the plains, into the moisture/instability which it would have pumped northward.

As for CDC, looking at the medium range teleconnections, particularly NAO, would suggest that the eastern trough will hold, if not intensify, before a ridge begins to build in by April (most likely). HPC says we are stuck with winter for at least the next 7 days in the northeast...
 
How is the gulf doing? I know early last spring a couple major arctic intrusions went all the way through the gulf down to the Yucatan. I don't recall anything that extreme early this season so maybe that will make for quicker moisture recoveries early on?
 
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