Chase Case 7

[Chris Heater]

I'll sit in Oklahoma City for now until I get some more data. I'm starting to like Texas though...so I may move over to Midland, TX or so later on

 

[Karla Dorman]

Hmmm. First attempt at this. Setting up at Midland/Odessa, can adjust further north or south if needed.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I actually recognized the trough right off the bat, I'm out

 

[Andrea Griffa]

This time I'm starting from Liberal,Ks.

 

[John Hudson]

I'll sit tight in Enid, OK for tonight.

John

 

[jaredleighton]

Gonna head out of Lawrence and work my way to SW Kansas. Assuming a 13 or 14 Z departure, I'd be getting there around 19 or 20 Z. I may want to mosey even further to the south toward AMA, but time may not allow such a maneuver. So for now put me in Liberal, KS.

EDIT: Didn't see the disclaimer that we could start anywhere. I'll continue to hedge a little and stay put in Liberal, but at 12Z rather than 20Z. I'll probably need to head south, but I'll see if I can't get a little more info before doing so.

 

[Matt Gingery]

STILL HANGING OUT IN ODESSA, TX. FED THE CATTLE AND TRYING TO SHAKE OFF THE HANGEOVER FROM THE CRAZY NIGHT AT THE LOST COYOTE SALOON. GONNA GO CHECK MY ABUNDANT OIL DERRICKS TO MAKE SURE MAINTANENCE IS UP TO SPEED AND SHOOT HAVALENAS WHILE I WAIT FOR DATA. ALOT OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY IN THIS AREA TODAY. WHEN I SEE A TROUGH DIG THAT FAR SOUTH I IMMEDIATELY KNOW THE DRYLINE WILL BE A FACTOR AND THE CAPROCK USUALLY LIGHTS UP. I AM GOING TO PLAY THE CAPROCK FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS BACKED INTO THE AREA WILL HELP STORM ENHANCEMENT AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES IN. I WILL TARGET BETWEEN AMARILLO AND MIDLAND.

 

[Jim Cross]

I will start the day in Plainview,TX.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Liberal, KS for me.

850 moist advection is moving fast north tought so I'm keeping an eye on NW KS as well, they could get enough moisture and be in some nice upper div over there.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Intermediate Update

*14Z Intermediate Update*​

You had checked SPC already, but found the site to be not updated. In fact, the most up-to-date convective outlook you could find was a Day 3 from two days ago (thus valid today):

2-day-old Day 3 outlook

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING ALOFT FROM HUDSON BAY TO FL...AND DEEP WRN TROUGH. SRN STREAM LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MEX -- IS FCST TO EJECT ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY DAY-2...WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY BY DAY-3 WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION. OF GREATER CONSEQUENCE WILL BE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FROM WRN STATES TROUGH. DISCREPANCIES IN STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THIS LOW THAT BEGIN TO APPEAR IN DAY-2 BECOME QUITE PRONOUNCED DAY-3...WITH VARIOUS SREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL PROGS PREDICTING CYCLONE CENTER ANYWHERE FROM NERN MT TO ERN CO. NONETHELESS...PROGS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON STRONG/SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SWD THEN EWD ACROSS AZ/NM DURING PERIOD.

AT SFC...MULTIPLE CYCLONE CENTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS TO SW TX OVER CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...CORRESPONDING TO COMBINED LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE POSITION. SPECIFIC LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THESE LOWS WILL BE INFLUENCED STRONGLY BY CHARACTERISTICS OF MID/UPPER CYCLONE AND REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN ATTM. DESPITE THAT...PRIND WAA AND RAPID NWD SPREAD OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN BROAD WARM SECTOR...FROM TX AT LEAST INTO NRN NEB/SRN SD...SUPPORTING SVR PROBABILITIES AOA CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK THRESHOLD. NARROWER CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW ACROSS DAKOTAS...SUPPORTING CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT REPRESENTED ATTM BY 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY LINES.

...GREAT PLAINS STATES...
ELONGATED AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG/E OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AND S OF SFC WARM FRONT THAT
GENERALLY WILL EXTEND FROM SD ESEWD ACROSS IA. OPTIMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD OCCUR IN RELATIVELY NARROW BUT VERY LONG PLUME WHERE FAVORABLE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE -- WITH DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY 60S F -- JUXTAPOSE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH. MORE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF MID/UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH MOST INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FORCING...ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY WRN OK NWD. WINDS ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE STRONGLY PARALLEL TO PRIMARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONGER CAPPING AND POTENTIALLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS/SMALLER HODOGRAPHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS W TX...BUT ALSO...GREATER SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE DURING AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GREATER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

CONSIDERABLE VARIATION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN STORM MODE AND TIMING OF INITIATION...AND FCST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT BOTH DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR AND LINEAR/MIXED MODES THROUGHOUT GREAT PLAINS. MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE SVR EVENT MAY OCCUR...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT SVR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND MOST PROBABLE MODES OF DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE MORE SPECIFIC AREA OF GREATER PROBABILITIES ATTM.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Not being one to follow the crowd, I will set up shop in Macon, Missouri. There are many things that I like about the area besides the fact that everyone else will be in Texas, so I can sell my footage at "fair-market price" ...There is on-going convection already laying down very noticeable outflow boundaries in the area and there is something about that warm/stationary front that is looking very appealing at this point.

No overwhelming sounding is screaming to stay put in Missouri but dew points into the high 50's are already advecting into the area and I expect that more will continue to move in through the day. With skies clearing into central Missouri reinforcing the front or possibly lifting it north, I'll take my chances closer to home.

 

[Patrick Martin]

In the spirit of the waking up and seeing the potential the morning of, I'll say I am grabbing my gear and bolting out the door from my house in Denver and headed to Garden City, KS. I'm following the S&T directions, so heading down 287 from Limon, and then east from Lamar to GCK. I am liking the SW KS play, but it leaves the option open to drop south towards OK and nrthrn TX panhandle. Will be monitoring data en route. Pending other data, will be in GCK by 18z.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Looks like a good setup is upon us. I will head out of Denver and target Ulysses, KS and await further updates. I think SW KS is going to be the place to be.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I stay put in Liberal waiting for the next run of the models and analysis maps.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'm out, I recognize the date. Many of you will be very happy.