Ted Keller
EF0
I'll stay in Amarillo for now but might be inclined to move north later into the clearer air.
Chase Case #10
- Thread starter Jason Branz
- Start date
Matthew Fischer
EF1
12z target was dalhart, tx but 15z target is now Amarillio, Tx. I like the better road options west and east and north and south. Still alot to play or choose from right now. Starting to get early convection at 15z in NW Texas. Will watch that but have some sonic for lunch! Then head to a better location to decide.
Chris Lott
EF4
I wish I could catch up to that bomb that went off in the NW.TX panhandle, but instead I will reposition myself in Lubbock,TX for right now.
scott r currens
EF3
I'd love to play along but I keep remembering the chase day before I get past 12z visible satellite and surface obs. How is it that I remember every satellite image from the last 10 chase seasons but I can remember why I walked from one room to another?
Anyone have pre-1998 chase cases?
Anyone have pre-1998 chase cases?
Charles Kuster
EF4
Based on the 15Z data I will move south and west to Perryton, Texas. It is still early, so I should have time to move north or south based on the next data set.
Brandon Ivey
EF2
I am still going to play further north in southern/southwest Kansas. It is close to home and I like how the winds shift from SSE in Dodge City to almost due easterly in Great Bend. Nice little boundary in there, although per radar imagary, It appears to be a little further south that what the SFC Obs would indicate. Not worried about LCL heights as Temperature/dewpoint spreads are good throughout the entire warm sector. I still plan to head to Pratt, KS and get the 18Z data out there alongside Matt Harding. I am taking off work at 11:00AM (Lunch Time) and getting on the road by 11:30. This will give me time to zip through a drive through and get something to eat and still have plenty of time to make it to Pratt for the 1:00 PM update.
Joel Wright
EF5
Wow, looks like we're having a party in Amarillo.
After seeing the 15z update I still like the TX panhandle and will stay in Amarillo for now. May have to head west though later on depending on how fast the dryline kicks (and hopefully bulges) eastward.
After seeing the 15z update I still like the TX panhandle and will stay in Amarillo for now. May have to head west though later on depending on how fast the dryline kicks (and hopefully bulges) eastward.
nickgrillo
EF5
I originally started out in DDC at 12z, not much has changed since then... However, I'm thinking a bit further south. I will head southwest down US-54 to Guymon, OK and wait for the 18z update. Hoping there will be enough clearing for surface-based instability to develop as the warm front lifts northward.
Marc Remillard
EF2
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2007
- Messages
- 141
Aight, looking at 15z, I'll stay at Liberal, Kansas. See you guys there.
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
Scott, thanks for the clarification, I appreciate it!
I'm going to move west to Meade, KS & should be there before noon.
I'm going to move west to Meade, KS & should be there before noon.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
I'm going to head to Amarillo, TX and wait things out.
Bob Hartig
EF5
Somehow, I missed seeing the 15z run. No matter, though. I'm happy hanging out at Amarillo. Guymon, OK, is tugging at me a bit, but I'll wait till 18z before I make any decisions.
There was one word that came to mind when I looked at this setup: YUCK!
The 15Z stuff looks a little more promising, so I guess since this is a virtual chase I'll sit in Dimmit, TX for this one. This kind of setup simply would not be good looking enough to drag me out on a real chase, though.
EDIT: (forecast reasoning): Weak and unorganized, but moist, sfc flow under weak low-mid level flow, which is all under a departing shortwave ridge, but downstream of a decent looking 300 mb shortwave trough. I see the 500 mb shortwave, but it's not the most impressive thing I've ever seen. Seems like the lift associated with it will be greater at higher altitudes, thus effectively pulling up any cap that there may be. Soundings looked either too high-based farther west or moist adiabatic farther east, lending to less instability. Nonetheless, early morning convection likely moistening the boundary layer, thus allowing for parcels to saturate at very low levels and become unstable anyway. Convection in SW OK also putting out an outflow boundary. Thus, this setup looks like a mesoscale setup, and it's hard to analyze a mesoscale scenario with the synoptic charts that have been provided. I will be a frequent visitor to the Oklahoma and West Texas mesonet sites today, waiting for the day's events to fire along an outflow boundary, perhaps the one flowing southwestward from the convection in SW OK.
I guess I'll see if my reasoning verifies, though. I could be dead wrong. I just kind of laughed at this setup when I first looked at it.
The 15Z stuff looks a little more promising, so I guess since this is a virtual chase I'll sit in Dimmit, TX for this one. This kind of setup simply would not be good looking enough to drag me out on a real chase, though.
EDIT: (forecast reasoning): Weak and unorganized, but moist, sfc flow under weak low-mid level flow, which is all under a departing shortwave ridge, but downstream of a decent looking 300 mb shortwave trough. I see the 500 mb shortwave, but it's not the most impressive thing I've ever seen. Seems like the lift associated with it will be greater at higher altitudes, thus effectively pulling up any cap that there may be. Soundings looked either too high-based farther west or moist adiabatic farther east, lending to less instability. Nonetheless, early morning convection likely moistening the boundary layer, thus allowing for parcels to saturate at very low levels and become unstable anyway. Convection in SW OK also putting out an outflow boundary. Thus, this setup looks like a mesoscale setup, and it's hard to analyze a mesoscale scenario with the synoptic charts that have been provided. I will be a frequent visitor to the Oklahoma and West Texas mesonet sites today, waiting for the day's events to fire along an outflow boundary, perhaps the one flowing southwestward from the convection in SW OK.
I guess I'll see if my reasoning verifies, though. I could be dead wrong. I just kind of laughed at this setup when I first looked at it.
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Jim Cross
EF1
Sitting at the Sonic in Dumas,TX. Will be watching OFBS along with the dryline. This area leaves me with more options.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
Ehi,I'm a bit in late on this one
But here I am!
After 12Z I did not love the morning crap convection, but I saw some breaks in the clouds so I headed toward Liberal,Ks.
I'm here with Dick, Marc and Kurt, playing some soccer at the parking of Days Inn, waiting for the next update.
After have seen 15z data I choose to stay put here in Liberal: even if I still don't see a significant moisture return in these neck of the woods, I want to be not too far away from the Low to make use of some backing low level flow. I think I should move North in the next couple of hours.
But here I am! After 12Z I did not love the morning crap convection, but I saw some breaks in the clouds so I headed toward Liberal,Ks.
I'm here with Dick, Marc and Kurt, playing some soccer at the parking of Days Inn, waiting for the next update.
After have seen 15z data I choose to stay put here in Liberal: even if I still don't see a significant moisture return in these neck of the woods, I want to be not too far away from the Low to make use of some backing low level flow. I think I should move North in the next couple of hours.
