Chase Case #10

[Jared Orr]

Coldwater, KS it is for me...

I'm confident about this one guys... I'm just gonna take a nap in Coldwater until 3. lol

 

[Chris Lott]

I'm liking the sounding out of Midland, and some of the clear spots out in W.TX starting to come up on satellite. I'm going to start out in Sweetwater,Tx giving myself the option of heading to Midland or in the Lubbock direction after the update.

 

[Jim Tang]

dislike the widespread convection, but like a lot of other things... Woodward, OK is my initial target. Am willing to move west later.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I am flying out the door from Denver and hitting the road to an intermediate target of Boise City, OK. Am thinking this could be TX panhandle type of day. I expect to be able to pick up the 15z update while on the road and can always adjust as neeed.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I am on the road from Denver to my preliminary target of Guymon, OK, and will snag the 15z update while enroute. This appears to be a classic TX/OK Panhandle -SW Kansas day, so targeting Guymon gives me the flexibility to zip northeast on Highway 54 into SW Kansas or drop southwest on Highway 54 to Stratford, TX and then drop down Highway 385 to Amarillo as need be.

 

[JF Massicotte]

The day will start in Woodward, OK. Good moisture and on track for 500mb, 700mb and 850 jets... Now might consider a move if this cloud deck doesn't go away.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Heading to Hooker, Oklahoma - home of the horny toads!

 

[nickgrillo]

Lots of low-level WAA induced elevated convection north of the warm front. The deep-layer kinematic profiles across the region appear to favor supercells, and based on the fact the warm front will likely lift northward during the afternoon, I would expect southwest KS/western OK to clear out -- with insolation and low-level moist advection contributing to favorable surface-based CAPE profiles. Not to mention the convection currently ongoing will likely leave an OFB or two for the afternoon -- enhancing the potential for low-level mesocyclones with surface-based storms.

I'll start the day out in DDC and adjust from there.

 

[mikegeukes]

Will hang out in Shamrock, Texas (1-40 and US 83)
and wait for my more data.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Pretty weak and disorganized surface flow in the southern plains as a result of the ongoing convection. The cloud deck does not look too thick over the Panhandles/SW Kansas and the upper support will likely be strongest in this region. For the time being, I would target Amarillo, Texas with the goal of arriving around 16-17Z to allow for re-targeting north or south.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will start in Buffalo, Oklahoma and wait for more data.

 

[Mikel Shively]

I think I'll start my day in Protection, KS. I'll sit and wait for more data and adjust from there.

 

[Jason Branz]

15Z Update

Visible Satellite
Central and Southern Plains
Northern Plains

Surface Observations
Central and Southern Plains
High Plains
Northern Plains

Radar Imagery
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains

Profiler Data
14Z Profiler plot (15Z unavailable)

Mesoscale Discussions
MD #1
MD #2

The Wayfaring Map has been updated. If I've left you off, please PM me and you'll be added. The 18Z update will be around 9:30 a.m. CST or thereabouts.

The biggest question for this day, in real time, was the morning convection and how it would set up the atmosphere for later.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Reading the 12z: Once that morning mess clears up - the upper diffluence and surface features point to a starting point of Shamrock, TX

Reading the 15z: It's still very early in the day so see no need to jump on any convection in the area. Winds are backing nicely across the TX panhandle so may move back west towards Amarillo, TX

 

[Joe Karel]

I'll continue southwest and head towards Dodge City, KS.