Chase Case #10

[Mike Peregrine]

Ahh don't mention that town. I missed the big show by 30 min. down there on April 7th...what was it...2001? I think I will stick to the northern target.

I hear you ... and the thing about Texas is, you think your target is within sight, but it's actually hours away. You can drive forever across that part of Texas before getting where you need to be.

Oh, and I missed Throckmorton by less than 30 right along with you. Of course, so did everyone else (besides like two people). Eh, correction ... it was 2002!

 

[Paul Townsend]

I see 2 areas of interest. One is the western half of KS maybe down into far northwestern OK, and then later on, west-central TX maybe even back as far as the NM/TX border. Just from the upper air charts I was going to pick Amarillo, TX but then I saw that I could jump higher than the top of the good low level juice there so I am going to start in Dodge City or Pratt, KS where I know I can mooch wifi.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Unusual high dews into E New Mexico, coupled with anticipating clearing from earlier convection leads me to head to Lubbock Texas. Everything is bigger in Texas, including tornadoes.

 

[Joel Wright]

I guess I'll start in Amarillo. We'll just assume I was in the area on a chase vacation LOL.

Interesting how far west the moisture is into New Mexico. Hopefully this will kick eastward pretty quickly as the shortwave lifts northeast through the southern Rockies. This should set up a nice dryline day for the panhandles area.

 

[Bob Gould]

Let's see if I can do this without making a fool of myself. I am going to go to my hometown, Wichita Falls. My reasoning from what I can see in the Midland, Fort Worth, Norman and Amarillo Sounding it seems to be a good center target and the road options will be plentiful to move in any direction.

Besides there is great BBQ at the Branding Iron and I can look at their pictures on the wall from the 79 event.

From here on I will keep my mouth shut and learn from the pros

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I could hang out in Elk City, OK for a little while, but I'm going to head up to Coldwater, KS and be there by 10 AM/16Z. I like the divergence aloft over the area, and will be interested to see how that plays out.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am going to begin in Dodge City after my dad and I left the night before. Thinking this may be a Panhandle day but I will wait for later updates to move south.

 

[Joe Karel]

I have to head to class but I'll make a quick first target location and possibly change it later tonight if I have time. I'll head to Kansas city and get more updates and probably keep heading southwest into Kansas. I'd like to get down into Oklahoma but we'll see how things turn out.

 

[B. Kendrick]

I think i will position in turpin, oklahoma.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I like the shear, moisture, and upper level support up north.

Anyone want to join me in Glasgow, Montana?

 

[Jim Bishop]

Target: Plainview, TX to wait for more data.

This isn't the most obvious setup, IMO. But after drawing a quick surface analysis it appears there is a broad warm front near Lubbock, TX to Lawton, OK extending eastward. All the rich low level moisture is located across Texas and southern Oklahoma. With the 500mb trough coming in from the west I imagine that 1)the warm front will lift further north and 2)a dryline will mix east during the day. There is also a strong 850mb jet from the southeast which will create amazing low level shear for tornadoes.

Based on the data given I will play the intersection of the dryline and warm front, so I'll head to Plainview, TX and wait for more data. But I may need to head further east if the dryline mixes east quickly.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Target: Perryton, TX

A rather impressive change in wind direction from 500 to 850mb setting-up across the area, looks like tornado potential will be high.. I'm excited.

 

[Marc Remillard]

Here we go! I will start my day at Liberal, Kansas. It looks like a pretty complex day, I'll wait there to see the next update

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm veering towards Lubbock as a start location also. I have never chased successfully in Eastern Texas so this will be an interesting one to follow. Lubbock is a decent distance east of the Dryline in New Mexico so hopefully I'll be better placed than on the 'another chase case 9' and not playing catch up. Great shear, good moisture, nice cape, nice clearing.... not much to complain about. The only thing which might have dragged me north, is the presence of a few boundaries left over from the ongoing convection, which could trigger something nice.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I could hang out in Elk City, OK for a little while, but I'm going to head up to Coldwater, KS and be there by 10 AM/16Z. I like the divergence aloft over the area, and will be interested to see how that plays out.

I think you're talking about the upper diffluence over the area, not divergence (I assume when you say "the area" you are speaking of Coldwater - there is diffluence over Coldwater and divergence over Elk City)...two different things. I'm not picking on you, but I've noticed a lot of people during the chase cases mistaking divergence for diffluence and vice versa. This is a good start for learning to differentiate the difference between the two...

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/advanced/habyextra6/