Chase Case #10

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I are heading towards Liberal, KS. Check out the dewpoints at Lubbock and Clovis!!

 

[Jared Orr]

oy... I'm really worried about convection becoming more wide-spread across the Texas Panhandle and SW KS. But hopefully it'll go around me in Coldwater, KS. I think good shear will develop in the next couple hours in my vicinity, along with decent CAPE values one the clear slot on satellite continues to move NE. I'll be staying here for now. However, I may need to move down into the Texas Panhandle if things improve there over the next couple hours.

By the way, can anyone tell me why the hell the SFC winds in Amarillo are ESE? Is this some kind of "magic panhandle wind-field"? I've never chased there before, so maybe I'm missing something... but by my calculations, the winds should be more southerly.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Will move from Woodward to Shamrock, TX..

Moisture is advecting into TX panhandle right now with favorable upper support... Along with winds nicely backing in the area...

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I assume you meant West Texas?
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East,West, Left,Right.. anyone who has chased with me offering directions knows what I'm like. (Generally take the opposite of what I say to be what I meant to say ) Anyway, I'll board a plane and relocate to Western Texas after my early morning navigation issues. Lubbock still seems a fine choice to me. Seems like a fair bit of cloud cover around at the moment but this doesn't worry me too much as the winds are backed very nicely in this area. It's still very early in the day.

 

[Matt Gingery]

After having lunch in Lubbock and looking at the 15z data, I noticed that it although it will likely happen here later, I wan't to reposition into the initiation zone. I am heading to Logan NM. This gives me the option to parallel the cells as they fire, at least I think they will fire in NE NM by 18z, and I can ride them all the way up to Dalhart Tx and Guymon Ok. This is honestly the best play for me right now.

I agree with Ted on repositioning further north, but for the mean time I would like to get some time lapse shots of initiation in the high plains of NE NM.

Its just too crowded here. . . .LOL

I wish we could loop the images, wouldn't that be cool.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Heading north to Amarillo.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm going to hang somewhere between Lubbock and Amarillo and wait to see what happens. Good to see the md's to the north. I still really like the wind, and there are enough breaks in the Cu to allow some good heating.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'm moving NW into Colorado...Lamar, CO looks to be a good spot. I may move even further north, but as it is, I'll be there by 18z.

 

[Jason Branz]

The long-awaited...

18Z Update

Upper Air
300 MB
500 MB
700 MB
850 MB

Satellite
Central and Southern Plains
Northern Plains

Surface
Central and Southern Plains
High Plains
Northern Plains

Soundings
North Platte NE
Dodge City KS
Denver CO
Amarillo TX
Norman OK
Midland TX
Fort Worth TX

Profiler Data
18Z Profilers

Radar Imagery
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains

MDs and Watches
MD #3
MD #4
Severe T-Storm Watch #1
Severe T-Storm Watch #2

Make your adjustments, if necessary!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Sitting in Plainview, Texas now. Things are looking good to me!

 

[Matt Gingery]

While in Logan we went to Ute Lake State Park and we rented jet ski's while we wait. Looking to our west we notice some towers going up. No watch yet, but I bet there will be a tornado watch issued real soon for NE NM and Tx Panhandle. After reading the MD and the talk of Lubbock being the spot, makes me a bit nervous, since I just left Lubbock to head to Logan NM. I do feel ok with my instinctive decision, and if storms line up in the classic formation it won't be too difficult to head south towards Clovis NM. I will stay put in Logan, New Mexico and will chase anything that pops within 50 miles of where I am now and go from there. Seeing these towers go up leads me to believe I will be chasing within the hour. . .

Time lapse is set up facing west for the next hour to get the intial development moving towards our area. . .

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

I haven't looked at 18z update yet, but As of 15z update I am moving further west and nw from Wichita Falls. I am gonna take Hwy 287 west to Childress, TX. I may even move further nw after the 18z update. I like the breaks in the clouds out in the panhandle region and the shortwave moving in out of the southern rockies. Now if we can get the dryline to mix eastward from New Mexico.

 

[Ted Keller]

Too funny! I was really studying this and suddenly the Wednesday morning test of the tornado sirens started and gave me a slight scare.

I believe storms will fire in the warm sector and cross the warm front as it lifts slowly north into a rapidly destabilizing area with great low level shear.

There are a ton a possibilities on this one all up and down the High Plains!

Anyway, I believe I'll creep northward a bit although I don't feel greatly compelled to move at all.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Looks like crap to me. Amarillo had the best looking sounding at this point. I like how the 300 mb analysis had a 70 knot bullet right over Dodge City, where the plotted 300 mb wind was only 40 kts...

I'll stay in Dimmit for now.

 

[Ted Keller]

While in Logan we went to Ute Lake State Park and we rented jet ski's while we wait.

And you had a grill in a previous chase; I want to chase with you! Wait, I will be...