Chase Case #10

[Jared Orr]

I'm gonna drive on down to either Dumas TX or Stinnett, TX


Everything seems to be coming together in the TX panhandle... great shear and backed SFC winds, perfect capping, a nice swelling cu field, etc.


I have a good feeling about this one... I may be slightly late, but I figure that the cells will be moving in my direction anyway.

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm sitting in Dalhart, TX waitin on some tubes

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Heading over to Stratford, TX and sit on the cu field. Looking good!!

 

[Brian Stertz]

See no particular reason to leave Plainview TX....a Td of 70 at LBB will likely mean trouble on the Caprock later ...MCD confirms that good tornado potential is nearby between Amarillo and Lubbock so have to keep a close eye on that boundary for major league initiation.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I like how the 300 mb analysis had a 70 knot bullet right over Dodge City, where the plotted 300 mb wind was only 40 kts...

Thank you for that. Nice to know I'm not the only one who scratched his head over that one.

I'm sticking around in Amarillo, getting in a little practice on my saxophone. No reason to move.

 

[Leah Robertson]

*Looks at 12z data*
Yeehaw! A panhandle chase! Looking at the visible satellite, I am concerned with the scattered convection going on in the Texas Panhandle and wonder how much this is going to hamper instability parameters (even though they are quite decent) but perhaps there will be a outflow boundary to play off of. I did notice a weak cap over the region which also has me concerned. Nonetheless, there is a nice short-wave trough moving through, adequate advection taking place at the 850mb, and if it clears out, I believe the panhandle will have a few supercells so I'm taking a gamble and packing up to head east on I-40 from Albuquerque, NM to Amarillo, TX.

*Looks at 15Z data*
I'm currently near the TX/NM border at a rest-stop going over the data. It is so much more humid here than in Albuquerque. Currently, there is a substantial amount of moisture in the air and I've had to pull my hair back into a ponytail to tame the beast as the PMS-Hair Threat has now reached Code Orange. I'm liking the backing of the winds over the Panhandle but I'm still now sure how all the leftover convection is going to play out...it's a an overall very messy scenario. I would love to be in Kansas right now but don't feel I would be able to make it there in time so I'm going to continue to head east on I-40 to Amarillo.

*Looks at 18z data*
Currently, I'm in Amarillo at the mall quickly shopping for a hat since I accidentally left mine at home and the hair needs to be safely locked away from the general population. Just looking at the AMA sounding makes me want to remain in my current location. There is clearing currently taking place which will further aid in making the atmosphere very unstable so I'm going to remain in Amarillo, TX and go from there with the next update.

 

[Tom Dulong]

I am jumping into this chase game late (darn work - hate when it gets in the way of chasing). Let's assume I had wandered up toward northwest OK from OKC this morning and am now in Liberal, KS waiting for the 21Z update.

 

[nickgrillo]

Heading south into the TX panhandle towards Pampa, TX... Maybe it's just a personal bias .

 

[Jason Branz]

Soon to be in all-out chase mode, if not already...

21Z Update

Satellite
Central & Southern Plains
Northern Plains

Radar Imagery
Southern Plains
Central Plains
Northern Plains

MDs/Watches
Red Box #1
MD #5
MD #6
MD #7
MD #8

Surface Observations
Central & Southern Plains
High Plains
Northern Plains

Profiler Data
21Z Profilers

The map will hopefully be updated this afternoon. The reveal will be around 8 PM CST, give or take an hour. The chase is on.

 

[Paul Austin]

18z

18z:

AMA sounding says things are about to go up in a hurry in the area. Wonderful clearing skies with bubbling cu throughout the panhandle has me smiling. I also like the 18z vert. wind profile over the area. I’d like to see stronger sfc winds here, but the lifting wf and approaching trough/dry line should enhance convergence and back winds a little more over time. I think I’ll check out the developing convection almost right overhead for a little while, keeping an eye to the w, sw, and nw. If this convection moves away to the east or fails to develop signs of rapid organization, I’ll probably drop south a little toward Tulia and maybe west a little toward Dimmit, TX. Watching the sky anxiously!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well what do we have here ... looks like two decent cells that have popped up just west of my position. They're looking great ... nice, clean, hard towers. And reflectivities are returning some good intensification in the works, within a nice environment. Think I'll sit tight right here and let 'em roll over the top of me and see what happens next.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I stay put here in Dahlart,Tx: as I thought before the bulge is formed now and Dahlart is just north-east; there's a new cell developing to my south, along the dryline: I'm leaving now.

 

[Ted Keller]

I'll head west out of Amarillo check out the develepment there and wait on other storms to fire to the southwest.

 

[Chris Lott]

I'm staying in Lubbock, and can quickly adjust north if need be.

 

[JF Massicotte]

18Z update: Now that thing are becoming more clear, I'll move NW to Dumas, TX.

Plenty of shear will affect the area and I can make a quick move west if dryline doesn't mix too far east.