Chase Case #10

[Dann Cianca]

18Z - Really overestimated the amount of instability. Never really got out of the cloudcover up in Northeast Montana. I'm going to head south and east out of Glasgow and hope to be in Glendive, Montana by 21Z.


21Z - Miles City is reporting a thunderstorm at this hour, though I don't have any radar. According to satellite, it looks like a line of storms is forming. Might not be able to coerce anything chaseable from it, but it's worth a shot. Heading south to Baker, Montana. If anything gets going, it still has a good shot of rotating, so I've got my fingers crossed.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Wow, a lot goes on during a day of work. I was looking at the 18Z data on here and figured out what I was gong to do from Pratt, KS, then I went another page or two and the 21Z stuff was posted. Now I know why I can't keep up with these chase cases.

18Z data. I would have headed west from Pratt ~1:30PM on highway 54 towards the Liberal area. I can make it to that area in 2 hours, putting me in or very near Liberal, KS by 3:30PM. I like the backed surface winds and lower lcl heights in SW Kansas. 850mb flow is very impressive and even though the 700mb flow is weak attm, I expect the stronger flow from the Texas Pan./E. New Mexico area to reach my target area by "prime time".

Now let me go look at the 21Z data and I will tell you what I plan to do from there. I did not want to cheat so I posted my 18Z response first.

 

[Joel Wright]

Been in Amarillo since 12z and have stayed there all day. After seeing the 21z update I will adjust a bit south to Canyon and intercept the new storms coming up from the south.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Looks like we're getting started. I'm still in Amarillo and waiting, but I think the waiting is coming to an end. I'm tempted to meet you down there in Canyon, Joel, but I think things will be happening here soon enough, and having never chased out here before, I like the highway options.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

21Z Update

I made it to Liberal, KS about 30 minutes ago and spent a few minutes looking over the SPC mesoanalysis pages and have been watching this storm develop to my south on GRlevel3. This cell is really about my only play at the moment. I don't like the linear nature to the storms up north by Garden City and I am betting that they are elevated enough by now, that the tornado threat would be nill with them.

I am going to head down south and get on highway 64/270 in the Oklahoma Panhandle and wait for this storm to mature and come to me. I will then follow it back into Kansas and that is where I think things will get interesting. There is a warm front hanging out over SW Kansas that this storm will eventually cross, if it matures and holds together. I wish road options were better. With these juicy dews and the weaker flow at 9800ft agl (per the profiler data) I could easily see this becoming an HP chase. With crappy road options, it will be hard to get in that inflow notch to get a good look at any hidden tornadoes this storm may have. I have also vowed not to take dirt roads anymore, even with my 4x4, due to being slowed down on the May 29th, 2008 cell near Osborne, KS and missing all the damn fun by minutes. Why wasn't their a paved road to Tipton from south of Osborne off of 281? Uggh, well I am getting off subject, but this storm that is forming along the TX/OK Panhandle looks to be a make-or-break deal to me. Either this storm gets its act together and allows me to have a steak dinner tonight or it may be more crappy food from the gas stations/fast food chains.

 

[Marc Austin]

21z: Well, I see a nice tiny supercell, possibly an LP with some good structure, just south of my position in Guymon, OK. I'm going to head down toward Gruver, TX and take a look at it while I'm waiting on more substantial convection. If the storm continues to grow, I may stick with it for a while, but if it craps out, I'll head over to Stratford, then down to Dumas, TX and join the barage of chasers there, unless of course something big brews along the way.

 

[Bob Gould]

21Z: I am going to move south and west from Wichita Falls about an hour to Seymour then decide to head west towards Benjamin or south towards Throckmorton depending on the radar. Maybe a new guy bust but it is to late to head to the panhandle.

 

[Derek Weston]

18z... stayed... in Hooker.

21z... wondering if I shouldn't have buzzed a little further south into Texas. More pronounced dry-line bulge.

However... looks to be a possibly discrete cell popping just a bit to my south, I'll drop south and check that out, and perhaps I'll keep going south if nothing else in the area pops.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Wow, the 18z and 21z updates are already up! That was fast. Well I was in Amarillo when the 18z update came out. I guess for now I will drop south of Amarillo and check out the two cells developing between Amarillo and Lubbock.

 

[nickgrillo]

Heading south into the TX panhandle towards Pampa, TX... Maybe it's just a personal bias .

Looks like convection is beginning to develop in the warm sector ahead of the dryline between AMA and LBB. I'll stay in Pampa (closer to the warm front). The 18z AMA sounding showed very little CINH remaining (with an associated low LFC height) and the continued surface heating / moist advection should allow for surface-based convection to fire across the warm sector. Nice deep-layer kinematic profiles and a deep low-level moist layer should favor strong supercells in the TX panhandle.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Currently in Tulia in great position to intercept the cells to the southwest. I'll drive west on 85 outside of town just a few miles to get a good view of the cells as they approach from the southwest and choose the best one.

Conditions looks amazing for tornadoes.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well, I finally got a chance to check out the 21z update. I have relocated off HWY 385 in the Hereford Tx. area as cells are exploding across the Panhandle. The dews dropped sharply in Logan to the mid 30's, a steep mixing ratio of around 5g/kg^-1. A nice LP cell popped up as I headed out of Logan NM and I passed it up as I headed into Texas. On visible satellite you can see how it really encountered some insane shear aloft. Conditions are really impressive. In and around AMA area and south along 27 are great. I am now hot on 2 supercells and observing some good structure between Hereford Tx, and Lubbock. It is lighting up rather nicely. Ideally I am going to try and stay close to the HWY 60 and 385 junction to parallel cells and head into Oklahoma as they push N.E.

Edit 2130z: I Am heading south towards Dimmit to punch the core on the first cell to get to the southern cell that has good inflow from the south. I am getting pelted with hail and heavy rain. If I get too far to the south of the HWY 60 junction I will likely jump on 70 and make my next play near Vernon Tx. Really, the entire area looks impressive as of 21 z. Dryline bulge has really pushed in quick as the shortwave pushes in from the west. It is on!


Edit 22z: I am still on these two cells in central Texas Panhandle, currently heading east on HWY 70 trying to get out ahead of these cells to make another play. Looks like they will be cyclic and long lived. Banking on them back building I will be pushing east on 70 till I get to Paducha Tx. I think by 23z there will be a few dominant cells, and I can head north or south on 283 in Vernon Tx. Hopefully there will be another update by the time I get to Vernon. I will play with these cells along HWY 70 to Paducha Tx. and head north or south on county roads as need be, and my final location will be Vernon Tx.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I haven't moved in an hour and have already seen multiple tornadoes! I heart Colorado. SPC upgraded my area to a tornado watch, which should help diminish that threat shortly! (PS, someone... who will remain nameless... blurted out the date...but I was headed to Colorado anyways. Yeah right...right?)

Yeah, I noticed you got that post in right before the 18z update, and amazingly you relocated to a nice line of explosive convection, LOL!

I believe you. . .

 

[Brian Stertz]

21z and it looks like GO time !! I am going to jump on these developing monsters to my northwest (Plainview) and stick to the dominant dryline supercell like super glue. Texas Panhandle Magic has begun...kaboooooom.

 

[Jim Cross]

Still in Dumas and waiting to see what happens in the next hour. Ill stick to this area and adjust from here.