Chase Case #10

Too funny! I was really studying this and suddenly the Wednesday morning test of the tornado sirens started and gave me a slight scare.

I believe storms will fire in the warm sector and cross the warm front as it lifts slowly north into a rapidly destabilizing area with great low level shear.

There are a ton a possibilities on this one all up and down the High Plains!

Anyway, I believe I'll creep northward a bit although I don't feel greatly compelled to move at all.

Copy that Ted! I had the sirens going off here in Ozark while I was typing my last post! That is hilarious. . .
 
And you had a grill in a previous chase; I want to chase with you! Wait, I will be...


Dude, I am rolling over that. Yeah, we have a mobile weather lab/Rib Crib, the Mobile Martini Bar and Disco Lounge are under construction. LOL
 
I'm moving toward Dalhart,Tx: I'm waiting for the dry line to form in west Texas Panhandle. I've got a good road option round here. If I'm correct a bulge could be about to form west of Amarillo to Sedan,Co. Situation synoptically very complicated.
 
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Probably going to stick around Amarillo for a little bit longer. I don't expect to get another update before storms start to fire (other than maybe a radar right around the time of initiation), but I jump on anything that goes up to my northwest as that looks to be the best region for explosive development.

I am just not as sure about further south, as the RUC analysis makes it look like the 500mb jet axis will pass right over my region of interest, while the mid-level support will be a little weaker down there.
 
Ok. Now that I have read the 18z update. I like the descision to move further west-northwest. I like that there are significant breaks in the clouds. I feel the dryline will advance eastward across eastern NM into the TX and OK panhandles through the afternoon. Wind fields look awesome across this whole region. Looks like some panhandle magic!! (A place I have never chased, but always wanted to). My final target will be around Shamrock or Pampa TX.
 
Late to this case, but the 12Z and 15Z data would have found me in Boise City, OK. It looks like a pretty classic high Plains setup with good moisture making it into southeastern CO. Further south seems too capped for my taste with nothing obvious to break it loose. The higher surface elevations of eastern CO and NM and pretty good flow profiles should break things loose, with storms moving north of east at a pretty sedate 20 kts. or so.

The 18Z data seems to confirm the previous, with cells developing already in a line from about Lamar into northeast NM. After lunch I'm deciding to get a little closer to storms that may develop off the outflow of this line. I'm going to amble up to Springfield, CO, by 19Z. Mid 60's dewpoints and backed south-southeast winds work pretty well in that area.
 
I made it to Shamrock at 19Z for the 18Z update. :eek: I disregarded the convection in the northeast TX panhandle as I was making my way south. After 45 minutes of studying the update data I am deciding to head south to Childress as planned, even though I would like to be further west and southwest for initiation, but I have to lie in the bed I made for myself. But it should be good here eventually. Arrival time near Childress is 2045Z, just in time for some 21Z goodies.
 
After looking at the 18Z information, I realize I'm too far east. I will head to Guymon, OK and should arrive just in time for the 21z update. I'm hoping for some isolated cells in the OK/TX panhandles or possibly something interesting in SW KS. Better upper level winds and directional shear as well as a possible dryline have me excited about this one!
 
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