Becky's turn

[Margie Kieper]

TC Becky is forecast by JTWC to intensify to 110 kt by Thursday evening, and Fiji forecasts moderate strengthening. Becky has been consolidating quickly and is moving under a large anticyclone (see recent microwave below to see the band of convection that has been continuing to wrap around the large warm center the last 24 hours). Intensity estimates are at T3.5 from JTWC and SAB.

As Becky intensifies, the current forecast track takes it directly over the South Pacific island chain of Vanuatu (in the news recently when a strong quake struck in the vicinity, but left little damage). While Kara is fizzling prior to landfall, the situation with Becky could potentially be much more dangerous.

 

[Margie Kieper]

JTWC forecast went from strengthening to 100 kt in 36 hr, to weakening to 60 kt in 36 hr.

Even though Becky has deepened just a little, as initially often happens in a sheared environment, shear will continue to increase and weakening will occur quickly. This recent 37ghz microwave shows the effect of the (northwesterly) shear very well: the convective structure (pink) is displaced to the SE of the lower level structure (light aqua), and even though the eye is well-defined, both are open to the NW: