Kara developing rapidly

[Margie Kieper]

JTWC intensity analysis yielded T3.0, but AFWA was T3.5 and SAB, which was an hour earlier, T4.0, with the comment, "POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERED EYE AS SEEN ON IR AND ON 1753Z AMSRE PASS BUT CONSTRAINTS ONLY ALLOW 10 TENTHS WHITE BANDING CLASSIFICATION FOR A DT=4.0 WHICH WILL AGREE WITH MET AND PT." BOM forecast also at this timeframe indicated only a small amount of strengthening followed by weakening prior to landfall.

Just after the 20Z-21Z estimates, a small eye became visible on IR and WV imagery, centered in a symmetrical CDO. Looking more like 65 kt rather than the labeled 50 kt, but earlier Quikscat showed zippo, so maybe the winds will be playing catch-up. Microwave imagery from the same timeframe showed a well-defined eye in the LLCC but only spotty convection surrounding it.

BOM update now online...changed to "Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara" and sustained (10-min) winds noted as 65 kt. First vis is notable:

Late night update -- convection has banded around the center (see IR below) which probably means an increase in intensity, but the last six hours (0000Z to 0600Z) appearance on vis satellite imagery has indicated a steady state.

The 0530Z vis is impressive, and the small size of the storm is also striking:

 

[Jose Garcia]

Usually when you get an such a structure with that kind of eye it shows the intensity to be well over 65kts. In fact, the estimates from SAB are now 5.0/90kts and Perth is now giving 85kts (10-min) which is now more in accordance with the satellite pictures shown above.

 

[Margie Kieper]

Usually when you get an such a structure with that kind of eye it shows the intensity to be well over 65kts.

Actually, not at the time of my post, which was 15 hours prior to your comment. At that time BOM had 966 mbar and 65 kt (10-min winds) -- and there was good reason for that unusual combination. Which also goes to demonstrate the interesting flexibility of the wind-pressure relationship!

Usually, with that kind of eye...but not always. It is not quite so cut-and-dried in this case. I'll have some more time tonight to provide some interesting details.

Quick early evng update:

Finally a microwave pass; this 87ghz color image resolves the small eye nicely (below). Sheared from the ENE. 2130Z and 2230Z IR indicate an ERC may possibly be beginning.

 

[Margie Kieper]

First vis is out, also TRMM did not miss. Microwave imagery indicates a small almost solid core of convection around a very well-defined small eye, open to the SE from shear. Also a strong separate band of convection about to impact the coast. Now visible on BOM radar, and there is also an MTSAT floater on Kara.

Late evng update -- just as the 0230Z intensity estimates were in, with both SAB and AFWA at 6.0 (JTWC still at 5.0) after the latest round of intensification, Kara perversely started a weakening trend -- it appears the structure is changing fairly quickly, which can be seen on BOM radar images from Dampier and Port Hedland, and differences between the 0230Z and 0330Z vis sat imagery.

 

[Jose Garcia]

Contradictions?

How things in life change is very interesting. Just a few days ago you were arguing of Hugo weakening fast due to rapid pressure changes (do'nt make me quote that, please) and now you are telling me that this storm was at much 65kts! If it were for you, Charley might have been only a 95kts hurricane at landfall in FL and not a 130kts. Or not to mention Iris in 2001 or some others of this kind. Off course I'll have to clarify (just to be sure you do not misunderstand) that I think that this storm was not as strong as Charley at the point you posted the sat images, but it was certainly not 65kts.

You just keep showing big deficiencies in your TC understanding. Small storms do change very fast compared to the larger ones. This is a proven fact. If you think this storm was 65kts just because TCWC Perth stated it, oh well, that's the 'official' word, but it is very clear that this agency and others were left behind on the estimates with this storm, this is not the first time that this situation occurs.

I just used the pics that you posted, sorry to burst your bubble but this one was not 65kts at that point, if you think it was, then good for you.