Mark Farnik
EF5
Wow, and I was just guesstimating Monica's track given her previous movements! :blink: How weird is that? Right now Monica is as strong as Hurricane Katrina was at her strongest, with central pressure of 905 mb. With that recent flare of convection around the eyewall I wouldn't be surpised if Monica's sustained winds are in the 150-155 knot range. If Monica continues on her forecast path and maintains her forecast intensity, she should pass directly over or just south of Darwin as a 130 knot strong Cat 4 (US) cyclone with gusts to 160 knots. This could be a very dangerous and devastating situation for Darwin. I wouldn't be suprised to see destruction on a similar level of that caused by infamous Cyclone Tracy which devasted that city on Christmas Eve 1974 if the front right quadrant of Monica's core passes directly over the city (which it very well may do) and Darwin is considerably bigger now that it was in 1974 (only 43,500 in 1974 versus 109,438 today) so there is a lot more real estate for Monica to destroy and a lot more lives at risk.
Also Monica is a MUCH larger storm than Tracy. Tracy was the smallest tropical cyclone on record with gale force winds only extending out 48 km(30 miles) from the center. Monica absolutely dwarfs Tracy in size. Gale force winds extend out 120 nm from the center! :blink: About the only good news is that after Tracy Darwin revised its building codes significantly, so at least the buildings that have been built since Tracy have been built with cyclone survivability in mind.
I think they need to issue an evacuation order for low lying areas and tell residents to either head east out of the path of the storm or move into shelters in substantial structures for those who don't want to or can't evacuate. Monica is a very dangerous storm and I hope the Darwin BoM and the Australian goverment take proper measures to ensure that the residents are either out of harms way or can seek safety in shelters.
I think they need to issue an evacuation order for low lying areas and tell residents to either head east out of the path of the storm or move into shelters in substantial structures for those who don't want to or can't evacuate. Monica is a very dangerous storm and I hope the Darwin BoM and the Australian goverment take proper measures to ensure that the residents are either out of harms way or can seek safety in shelters.