Approach of the Second Season...

[Andrew Ryan]

I don't know about everyone else, but SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome) is starting to set in for me. It's not like it hasn't already, for example, I contemplated chasing after a tornado warned supercell in the Bronx recently, not a good idea.

But anyway, the second season is quickly approaching and I was wondering what everyone's thoughts about it. Right now it's quiet but any guesses as to when it will come about (other than the obvious climatological answer)? How strong will it be? After have many years of lackluster second seasons, I've heard speculations that this season will be stronger.

Hopefully this thread will keep us distracted while we wait for the second season to approach.

NOTE: This thread may or may not have been influenced by the "Lurker" thread.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I don't know about everyone else, but SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome) is starting to set in for me. It's not like it hasn't already, for example, I contemplated chasing after a tornado warned supercell in the Bronx recently, not a good idea.

I can only imagine what a chase like that would be. "You maybe wanna be in my neighborhood chasing? Get outta he !

On a more serious note, the "Second Season" seems to have been more active and stronger in the deep south over the last several years than the Spring season has been. I have not done any research on actual numbers or intensity, but just going on memory, it has been a better "season" in this area than the Spring season. Of course though, the roads and terrain really stink for chasing. Yet. I do look forward to the November through January chase potentials here.

 

[david diehl]

I had a talk with the Warning Coordinating Meteroligst over at IWX a while ago and we got talking about the second season, IMO the fall season does seem to pack more tornatic storms in my area, however the WCM stated that the only reason that the fall storms seem stronger is because they are the ones that end up causing the most fatalities because people are not thinking tornadoes in the fall. I guess people just need to pay more attention to detail, and if they didn't get it through their heads this last year, then I guess their death is their own stupidity, not mine

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

While nothing has me too excited just yet, at least it looks like we'll see a return of southerly flow over the plains region. After being stuck in the 50-60's with dp's in the low 40's I was really questioning even the chance for a fall event. I recall in 2006 sept. offered an excellent tornado day in SE SD, I wouldn't mind at least one more good day to write the finishing chapter on this chase year

 

[Shane Adams]

As much as I'd love another big time Fall tornado day to add to my experiences, it would really wreck my DVD plans, as I just got the editing finalized this past weekend, and after a ton of cutting and dropping and shifting around, I have finally gotten a decent set of events packaged neatly into my desired time frame. One more tornado day in 2008 would mean the complete erasure of all my work the past few weeks, and going back to the drawing board.

It's always an interesting gamble (at least for me) putting out a video earlier in the Fall (as opposed to Winter), knowing one good Fall chase late in the year after your video is done would mean a "recall" and a complete do-over. But it's my experience that great Fall tornado days are far and few between, and almost any year it's a risk worth taking.

Wx-wise, I'm not seeing anything to get excited about. Clear skies and low humidity seem to be the rule, at least for the next week. No way to tell what lies down the path a month from now, but I've conditioned myself to not expect much from Fall, and to consider my past Fall triumphs diamonds in the rough as opposed to something to be expected.

 

[Darin Brunin]

As much as I'd love another big time Fall tornado day to add to my experiences, it would really wreck my DVD plans, as I just got the editing finalized this past weekend, and after a ton of cutting and dropping and shifting around, I have finally gotten a decent set of events packaged neatly into my desired time frame. One more tornado day in 2008 would mean the complete erasure of all my work the past few weeks, and going back to the drawing board.

Why not get a head start on the next DVD?

I am never really that optimistic about the second season...if it happens, I will run with it. If not, I am not going to worry about it. Take it for what it's worth and don't be pissed off if things don't work out in your favor.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

I can tell you that I am expecting a short second season. Especially if it is anything like last years event that took place on October 19, 2007.

October - as far as statistics are concerned in the last decade - had a fair showing. Locations are a bit unpredictable, but are the usher to the coming of winter.

If you gots da blues for da storm, it maybe within grasp or too far to travel.
Heads up!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-October_2007_Tornado_Outbreak

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Well..I wasn't really expecting a springtime setups but more comparing it to other fall setups. Will this years be relatively stronger or weaker?

I'm not expecting much for the fall. Probably similar to last year, one or two days with supercells. Just something to keep me entertained until spring. I can't really get out this fall, so I sort of hope that nothing big happens.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I see the second season as a (valid) excuse to get out and chase in a time and/or place not normally thought of as chase season. It's nice to get out this time of year, and sometimes it delivers.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I can tell you that I am expecting a short second season. Especially if it is anything like last years event that took place on October 19, 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-October_2007_Tornado_Outbreak

Actually I believe it was October 18th that saw the majority. Chad, Matt and I were right behind the EF-3 that tore through Nappannee, IN that day. From what I can remember, theres usually a decent round of storms here in Chicago too, so Im looking forward to it, and wont retire my gear for the year just yet.

Although like others have mentioned, things look to be pretty boring for the time being...

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Well sometimes Sept-Oct. can be interesting around here but I am probably done for the year unless something really big pops up around here. I'll be saving up for the plains next Spring..I hope.

 

[Terry Tyler]

you know im waiting on the second season down here...ive been coming hard for the 08 and have been on all the good events around here...a good second season would make this year a signifigant improvement above the first two years...the south in and on itself has had a stunning year, and a continuance to all that activity would be appreciated...i bought a laptop and some other stuff thats going to make it easier to chase cause im through with the libraries...the training wheels done been up, so all i need now is another winning event in north miss!!!

 

[MatthewCarman]

Let's not forget November can have some active chase days aswell. November 12,of 2005 was a big day for Iowa. Many tornadoes occured including the F3 that hit Woodward and there was the 2-2.75" hail that day. November outbreaks I would think to be rare but they do happen. Every fall usually has several days where there is a few tornadoes here and there and there is usually a few big outbreaks some years. Also hurricanes in the fall can drop alot of tornadoes or waterspouts. I remember seeing one SPC storm report that listed over 50 tornado reports on the east coast I think associated with a hurrcane. As to the best states to chase in the fall I would guess SD/MN/NE/IA early on and then when it starts getting colder out the threat usually shifts southward.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I noticed recently that some lows seem to be trying to form near the Oklahoma Panhandle on the models. With the recent passage of the cold front that we had a couple of days ago, it's brought quite a nice change to the constant hot and humid weather we have had. The cool down certainly is quite an interesting event, especially because the effects seem to last for a whole week. Sounds like an early fall to me.

 

[Derek Weston]

I really don't believe there is a true second season -- kind of a myth. Statistically, nation wide, there is no appreciable spike in the fall that I can see. (unless it is a very short window < 1 month and or for a very limited geographical region)

I think as you push towards winter and get stronger systems to push through, you stand a chance for a nice outbreak once in a while if you're able to get one last kick of gulf moisture in. (think midwest/Ohio valley outbreaks out to the east)

But it's not really a seasonal thing you can plan for, or count on... just something that works out once in a while.