Any hope for the rest of the JUL/AUG season?

[nickgrillo]

Who else has hope for the rest of the JUL/AUG season across the northcentral states?

I really need to get more storms (I know, greedy LOL) before the season is officially over, but the GFS hasn't been too promising. Usually around this time, IL/IN/MI/WI is rocking with at least strong squall lines / the occasional active tornado days, but besides the pervasive pulse action MI/IN has been expierencing alot lately, there hasn't been that many good days up here this season.

I took a look at the GFS between 108-180HRs and it shows a bit of hope with a system that travels from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes. Moisture is pretty rich around the area for this time of year, and I am really giving this "light at the end of the tunnel" some hope LOL. Anybody else have opinions?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

All I know is that south-central Wisconsin just got its first rain in over a week today thanks to a brush from the remnants of Dennis. Most of the rain has not been pushing much farther than the IL/WI border. 20 miles north of here in Madison those lawns that have not been constantly watered are brown.

This pattern reminds me a bit of 2002 which had a long dry spell in early/midsummer...and of course no rain chances=no severe thunderstorm chances. In '02 that pattern was broken by a sweet severe thunderstorm with a jaw-dropping shelf cloud, torrential rains, and even a few gustnado spin-ups! That sure would be a nice drought-buster this year too!!

I do find this forecast a bit interesting:

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90.

The 90 degree high and partly cloudy verbiage suggest plenty of opportunity for insolation. However, MKX makes no mention of this in their AFD or HWO.

The CPC hazards outlook doesn't provide much in the way of hope either:

There are no obvious areas at risk for organized severe weather outbreaks.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Dallas has had Sever Thunderstorm Warnings, with NWS advice to seek shelter, for the last two days in a row. Nothing but distant lightning visible from Fort Worth though.

Weird.

 

[Chris DeRosier]

I know here in Duluth MN it is getting HORRIBLY dry. The dirt is like fired clay (natural clay type soil here anyway). My duck pond is drying up. And the last two weeks I've watched occasional storms in the northern half of the state dry up/fall apart as they've approached Lake Superior, or pass off to the south.

We really need rain! And the temps for almost the last 2 weeks have been around 85-95 even this far north. That doesn't happen much.

I haven't called in one severe weather report to NWS in 2005 yet!!!

But I have hopes for maybe Sunday here--looks like a pattern shift. And usually those are precluded by a "hum-dinger" storm event!

Our forecast calls for the next system Thurs PM/Friday to slide north of the US/CAN border (again!) but are at this time calling for "isolated" storms in NW MN Sunday afternoon. Not too promising but things can change!

 

[Robert Dewey]

<-------------------- I quite storm chasing!


Okay, not really :lol:

But still, I have only seen one severe thunderstorm this whole year. I did manage to catch a pulse severe storm a few days ago with less than pea sized hail and quite a bit of flooding, so it was interesting. Hell, I haven't even checked the forecast models/SPC/any forecast source in about 5 days, so the outbreak of the century could be right around the corner, and I am oblivious to it all.

 

[Dan Cook]

I'm just hoping for rain...everything is dying.

 

[Anthony Silver]

If we can get rid of this ugly ridge...there may be hope for severe weather in the Central Plains and Midwest. Otherwise...we're pretty much done until the "second season" around mid September.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
I'm just hoping for rain...everything is dying.

I am no longer worried about my grass dying. I am now just trying to keep it from catching fire! :?

 

[Joel Wright]

This is the worst drought I've ever seen. Here in the Quad Cities we've beat the dryest stretch from Jan -mid July EVER. Well, since records began in the late 1800's. There are burn bans and water restrictions all over. There have been numerous grass fires already (which is pretty damn rare for around here) all along I-80. It has rained only a handful of times since the beginning of the year. :cry:


I plan on trying a rain dance tonight. Hopefully it works better than my snowstorm dance did..... 8)

 

[Craig Maire II]

July

The Desmoines NWS is mentioning a possibility of a few severe storms Sunday night and Monday....

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yup, CPC has given some hope for the upper Midwest. WFO-MKX does not concur just yet, however:

Originally posted by MKX HWO
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

 

[J West]

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andy Wehrle)</div>

Yup, CPC has given some hope for the upper Midwest. WFO-MKX does not concur just yet, however:

<!--QuoteBegin-MKX HWO

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

[/b]

The AFD is downright depressing...they don't even mention words such as "rain", "thunderstorm" or "severe"

 

[Morgan Palmer]

In East Texas, we've had some interesting results from non-warned storms the past couple of days.

In Longview, Gregg County, a downburst from a storm on Tuesday took down some very large trees in a neighborhood. Two cars were crushed, and another tree clipped one home, causing significant damage.

On Wednesday in Mineola, Wood County, a persistent cluster of storms dumped from 2-5 inches of rain in less than two hours. A Pizza Hut was and closeby stores were flooded, and two swift water rescues were required when two girls were swept away in a storm water channel. Both girls are OK.

It's been kind of fun as these storms have had very little movement.

 

[Chris Sokol]

If Emily continues to hold her intensity and makes a Texas landfall, it could possibly make things very interesting in TX/OK/NM.

As of now, I am planning on chasing Emily as long as she make a US landfall.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

MKX has now done a 180 on its HWO:

Originally posted by MKX
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.