9/15/04 NOW: Hurricane Ivan [Gulf Coast]

Something is really, really fishy.

I'll make references to tornado damage ratings because I'm so familiar with them, and so are many of you.

Seen the pics from Grenada? Seen anything that looked like more than F1 given the shanty-town construction that's obvious even from fly-over pics?

Seen the pics from Jamaica? Anything more than F1?

Seen the pics from Grand Cayman? Hmmmmmmm?

Someone show me some buoy archive data of wind speed greater than 90KTS. I bet you can't even find one of GUSTS.

Metars..........

60KTS is the highest I ever saw tonight, gusts to 85.

As I type this, 7z metars shows 45KTS for Mobile and Ft Walton Beach....no Pensacola data.

Same thing from Cuba. Who saw the data from Cuba? Nothing greater than 70, 80KTS that I ever saw.

Look, I am overcome with a sense of relief. Thank *insert your preference for name for creator here* that Ivan was never more than a cat2.

Yep.

Where did this false data come from??

Name something besides the Hurricane Hunter equipment. Anything.

It matters so much because the evacuations cost millions.

Yeah, there'll be plenty of rebuttals; I'm an idiot, blah, blah, but I don't care.

Nitpick at me about the specifics. Go ahead and ignore the important data.

I'm glad Tropical Storm Ivan didn't cause too much damage tonight.

Bob
 
What false data? The storm simply weakened shortly before landfall, likely due a combination of dry air intrusion, cooler sea surface temperatures, and prolonged interaction with land. It happens. Remember Lili?
 
Dauphin Island, AL Weather Observations
9:05 pm CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 47 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 57 kts (66 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.15 in (987 mb)

1005 PM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 61 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 77 kts (89 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.97 in (981 mb)

1105 PM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 63 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 78 kts (90 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.81 in (976 mb)

1205 AM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 63 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 79 kts (91 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.60 in (969 mb)

105 AM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 60 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 70 kts (81 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.24 in (956 mb)

205 AM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 60 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 70 kts (81 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.13 in (953 mb)

305 AM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 58 kts (67 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.51 in (965 mb)

405 AM CDT
Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 250 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 39 kts (45 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.79 in (975 mb)

Check out the data plot:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.ph...ion=dpia1&uom=E

Notice the change in wind direction from ENE to WSW
and the pressure is now rising on the last two observations..

Mike
 
Originally posted by Bob Schafer
Something is really, really fishy.

Seen the pics from Jamaica? Anything more than F1?

Seen the pics from Grand Cayman? Hmmmmmmm?

Someone show me some buoy archive data of wind speed greater than 90KTS. I bet you can't even find one of GUSTS.
Click to expand...


Remember that Ivan did not directly hit Jamaica or Grand Cayman. The center of the circulation (eye), where the hurricane hunters measured the MAX wind, was always at least 40 nautical miles from land until it came upon far western cuba where there are no observations.

Though I'm not sure how sound this logic is.....the maximum wind that is reported by the hurricane hunters is most often used to categorize the hurricane. So, because the area of intense (cat2 and higher) winds is confined to such a small area, you would literally have to have observing stations every square mile to even try and sample the strongest winds. Remember that the hurricane hunters can sample the hurricane for many hours to find the strongest winds.

Regardless of all this, flooding from heavy rains is far more deadly than direct impact from strong winds, and Ivan has the potential to dump and dump and dump huge amounts of rain as it stalls in the Appalachians. So, I don't think we are anywhere near done with Ivan yet.


EDIT:

Just ran across this from the Mobile NWS afd this morning:

APPEARS BALDWIN COUNTY AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAVE CAUGHT THE BRUNT OF IVAN...WITH PRELIMINARY REPORTSINDICATING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ACROSS MUCH OF BALDWIN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA FLORIDA COUNTIES. ESCAMBIA FLORIDA COUNTY EMA HAVE REPORTED DAMAGE SO FAR IS WORSE THAN OPAL. ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA EMA HAS REPORTED MAJOR DAMAGE EVERYWHERE.
 
Also note that the edge of the eye came ashore around Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, AL... a good 18 miles from the Pensacola observing station (which appears to be near Warrington, FL, a good distance west of Pensacola).

I would agree somewhat that there does seem to often be a large discrepancy between the max sustained wind in the advisories vs ground truth, but this is likely due to the very small area of maximum sustained winds... likely on the very edge of the inside of the eye wall.

Also, there was a buoy (42040) that was very close to the eye, and as mentioned earlier, did not show anything near 135mph. This is listed as a 3-meter-wide floating buoy. It was also reporting wave heights of 20-30 feet this afternoon when the eye went by. Not a good way to measure winds since the waves will tend to block the winds, as well as tilt the buoy at all sorts of funky angles which probably further affects wind measurements.

Perhaps someone on here knows more about the details of the instrumentation on board these buoys and their limitations?
 
Everybody: This thread is for reports on damage and conditions occuring, not to debate whether or not the storms rating was valid. Please start a thread in "Weather and Chasing" for that purpose. Thank you.
 
Well, we can say that New Orleans has doged a major bullet. They did recieve some wind and rain, but nothing really bad. No big flooding surge either.
 
Ivan has affected me, but not with wind, rain or surge. HEAT. Next 3 days temps up to near 100. Ick, isn't it mid September! Saw some local reporting on the waves in Galveston and how many surfers were doing their thing. Catch a wave, dude!
 
WOW! Check out the mesoscale discussion:

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0409161207.acus11.html

Excerpt:

"WIND PROFILE DATA OVER A LARGE AREA OF
AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WERE INDICATING VERY INTENSE TO EXTREME VALUES
OF 0-1KM HELICITY...ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 M2/S2. JUST ABOUT ANY
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ACQUIRE
ROTATION AND COULD END UP PRODUCING A TORNADO."
 
Surprised there hasn't been much talk here about the tornadoes associated with Ivan. Fatality count now up 7-8 and with 5 injuries, depending on the source, and weather service tornado reports still trickling in, with 8 now reported from yesterday. I haven't seen it yet, but heard there was some great video of the Pensacola tornado blowing up tranformers on TWC.

waqter vapor imagery suggesting another surge of dry air may be wrapping around Ivan which could aid the thermodynamic environment. Morning soundings suggest some instability, and the RUC analyses offer 0-3 CAPE values around 200 - which is plenty given the low level shear present. So, a flare up of more tornadoes looking likely, perhaps even into the Atlanta metro area.

Glen
 
I live in Sylacauga (Talladega County) in Central Alabama and we are getting absolutely lashed here. I have taken a peak wind gust at 86.4 mph over the last 12 hours and I have chased/been chased by three tornadoes. One landspout on the northwest side of the city that has produced tree and power line damage. Another on the South side of town that has produced tree and shingle damage and another that went right in front of me across U.S. Highway 280 heading north bound. So far I've only had 2.5" of rainfall, but flooding is very imminent across the county. Areas in northern Talladega County have had to close ALL roads in the cities of Munford and Talladega. We have also experienced some lightning and small hail which is VERY uncommon for hurricanes as you very well know.

Down on the coast, my condo (Pheonix 7) which is in Perdido/Orange Beach has been destroyed. From Orange Beach to Pensacola it is an absolute danger zone.
 
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