9/15/04 NOW: Hurricane Ivan [Gulf Coast]

[David Wolfson]

I dunno, Chris. Maybe it's updating every 30 seconds, but the weather should be a lot worse there now and the date should be today, not yesterday :wink: .

 

[mikedeason]

If you want to listen to current police radio from Mobile, check this out:

http://www.al.com/mobilepolice/

If any of ya'll need some interpretation of Alabamese, let me know. ;-)

Regards,

Mike

 

[Kevin Walter]

Very interesting listening. Sounds like they're actually starting to arrest people for curfew violation. If the track remains as it is now, with Mobile Bay in the right-front quadrant of the storm, there is going to be some immense storm surge.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The past 20 miles / 90 minutes of Ivan's path on radar shows a storm track of about 10 deg, which would project onto eastern coastal Alabama. Will check again in a couple of hours.

Pensacola NAS is now up to 52 mph gusts.

Tim

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey

I moved this post from the forecast thread:

Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040

The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.

Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.

40 was the old "record"? The latest 2350z observation shows waves of 52 feet!! :shock: This looks to be very near the eye, though sustained winds are only in the 60-70mph range at that site. Pressure at that buoy is down to 28.3, and continues to drop rapidly...

The track does appear to have an easterly component, and now I really question whether it won't make landfall in the FL panhandle. Cloud-tops remain coldest in the southern semicircle, which may wrap around in time for landfall...

Concerning tornadoes... The low-level shear, per SPC mesoanalysis, is incredible! 0-3k SRH ~700m2/s2, though this is based on a northwesterly storm motion... There looks to be some decent tornado potential in GA, southeastern AL, and the FL panhandle, as CAPEs range from 500-1500. Numerous tornadoes have been reported already, with atleast two deaths due to two tornadoes per various media outlets (only one LSR so far, but NWSFOs are busy so...).

 

[mikegeukes]

From the 40 Tornado Warnings so far:
AT 404 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR INLET BEACH

AT 422 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
COLQUITT.

AT 619 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR WHIGHAM...OR ABOUT NEAR CAIRO.

AT 635 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR PEOPLES STILL...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAIRO

AT 707 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 24 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON

AT 842 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ENTERPRISE.

AT 1018 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 23 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...OR NEAR WILLISTON.

From the Local Storm Reports so far:
0625 PM TORNADO 3 W PANAMA CITY 30.17N 85.72W
09/15/2004 BAY FL AMATEUR RADIO

*** 2 FATAL *** TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THOMAS DRIVE AND
GRAND LAGOON. TWO PERSONS WERE KILLED WHEN THE TORNADO
STRUCK A LOCAL RESTAURANT. TIME ESTIMATED.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTLH/0409160014.nwus52.html
EDIT: 0625 PM TORNADO PANAMA CITY 30.17N 85.72W
09/15/2004 BAY FL AMATEUR RADIO

*** 2 FATAL *** TWO PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND OTHERS TRAPPED
IN RUBBLE FROM THEIR DAMAGED HOMES IN ALLENTON AND
PANAMA CITY BEACH. DAMAGE TO A FIREHOUSE. OTHER TOUCHDOWNS
REPORTED AT CALLAWAY AND PARKER. TIME ESTIMATED. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTLH/0409160419.nwus52.html

Need help converting knots to mph:
Wind Speed Conversion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/windconvert.shtml

Mike

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The track is now averaging 15-25 deg (true north) over the past 1.5 hours. This projects the path onto the FL/AL border.

Tim

 

[Austin Ivey]

931mb as of the latest recon min. central pressure report

122kts max flt level wind in SE quad.


We are truly witnessing a historical event!

 

[Bobby Eddins]

Looks like it just did at least a wobble back to the left on the Mobil radar.
Only time will tell if this is only a wobble.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Yes, a piece of history is definitely being made. Landfall at 931 mb would put Ivan in #3 spot for post-1960 landfall intensity (just behind Camille and Andrew).

Tim

 

[Austin Ivey]

It's interesting to note the complete lack of radar echoes immediately to the west and south of the eyewall. This part of the storm also coincides with the coolest cloud tops noted on the latest infrared image. How can this be?

Entrainment of dry air from NW of the center perhaps?


Could the waves be so high in that area that they are blocking the radar signal?? :wink:


EDIT: Pressure up to 933mb....probably just leveling off?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
It's interesting to note the complete lack of radar echoes immediately to the west and south of the eyewall. This part of the storm also coincides with the coolest cloud tops noted on the latest infrared image. How can this be?

Entrainment of dry air from NW of the center perhaps?

Could the waves be so high in that area that they are blocking the radar signal?? :wink:


EDIT: Pressure up to 933mb....probably just leveling off?

I think it is largely dry air entrainment. Shear is still pretty weak, though outflow isn't quite as nice in the northwest quadrant as it was earlier, so there may be a little more shear up in that part of the storm. However, the rest looks good so... Therefore, I do think it is largely dry air entrainment. There have been "streams" of dry air that have been getting caught up in the circulation and pulled into the center. This exact thing happened early this morning, and I've posted a good water vapor image of this in one of these threads. Seeing how convection has weakened / cloud tops have warmed quite a bit in the northern semicircle the past few hours. Responding to this, the eyewall has now opened, per recon and latest satellite images, which shows an oval-shaped eye. And actually, check out the 0145z image, and you can again see a 'stream' of dry air (very weak / no convection) stream from the east (just north of the coastline) then spiralling southwest and south into the eye. I think this was some dry air caught up in the circulation, and it's just making it to the eye... Remember what this did to the hurricane late last night and early this morning?

 

[Jeff Lawson]

A little earlier, I spoke with my aunt in Panama City. She mentioned that a tornado earlier in the day damaged about 70 homes there. I'm assuming that would be the same tornado responsible for the first two fatalities. She's been through several hurricanes and generally isn't one to worry much, but you could hear the concern in her voice over the phone. It was rather uncharacteristic, really.

Unfortunately, I also have another aunt who lives on Dauphin Island. Best I know, she left yesterday. I'm not sure if she'll have anything to return to, though. Every October, we have a family reunion on the island - I'm not sure if it'll be happening this year.

Anyway, from watching radar, the storm does indeed look to be moving due north - although, in the last few frames, it looked to have wobbled east just a tiny bit. Regardless, it's getting close enough to the coast now that any wobbles won't make much difference outside of how bad the storm surge will be along Mobile Bay.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I was checking around with some buoys (the ones that were working) and it looks like water is around 79-80F along the LA coast. But how long would those cooler waters have to be experienced to produce significant weakening? I think it would be a while.

I agree with dry air entrainment, though I've seen a couple of occasions with Ivan, in the southern Glfmex, and if I recall correctly, north of the ABC islands or perhaps a bit west of there when it was extremely strong, where I expected some dry air impact, and it didn't happen. Of course, it was about 30mph higher then and much more well defined.

Anyway, WLOX in Biloxi has some AWS sites on their website.
http://www.wlox.com/Global/link.asp?L=2698

mp

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Movement has been holding at 015 deg during the past three hours. I am banking on landfall at Gulf Shores, AL, with Pensacola getting the full brunt of the eyewall damage.

NHC's newest 03Z forecast keeps the track on more of a 005 deg heading into Mobile Bay, which I don't agree with. But I guess at this point it's like nitpicking.