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9/15/04 NOW: Hurricane Ivan [Gulf Coast]

Had this in the FCST thread, but moved it here:

Originally posted by rdewey
Looking at the VIS loop and long range NEXRAD, it appears that Ivan is still moving just west of north. My best guess is that it will pass very close to New Orleans...
 
Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds. Not only are those big waves, that wave period is very long. Long period waves carry substantially more energy than short period waves. Much of that energy is below the surface so when they reach shallow waters they grow even larger. Although, that depends on the bottom contours and I couldn't imagine waves bigger than that hitting the gulf coast.
 
Tornado threat will start to impact the Gulf Coast from around Apalachicola back to around Dauphin Island as an outer rainband with embedded mini-supercells drifts on shore. Several cells with TVS signatures just off the coast line - could be rather interesting as this moves on shore. The setup is classic, with the dry air intrusion sliding in just inside of the outer rainband - looking like Ivan will be making a name for itself in many ways (storm surge, wind damage, extreme inland flooding, and tornadoes).

Glen
 
Radar representation of Ivan looks nice on the Slidell RDA and it appears that the storm is moving just a few degrees west of 360 now. The eye also appears to contracted down to about 20 miles. Wouldn't surprise me to see the eye make landfall closer to the MS/AL line, possibly Jackson Co., MS. At the current speed, it's possible Ivan could make landfall between 05Z -07Z. With high tides occuring in and around Mobile Bay between 05Z-08Z, could be some extensive flooding in Mobile and Baldwin Counties by sunrise.

Regards,

Mike
 
C-MAN station on Dauphin Island (DPIA1) now has sustained tropical storm force winds (36G42KTS)

Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds.

Last report from 42040 (1850Z) now has wave heights up to 42 ft.

Regards,

Mike
 
Originally posted by mikedeason
C-MAN station on Dauphin Island (DPIA1) now has sustained tropical storm force winds (36G42KTS)

Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds.

Last report from 42040 (1850Z) now has wave heights up to 42 ft.

Regards,

Mike


I moved this post from the forecast thread:


Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040



The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.


Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.
 
Last VORTEX message (1745Z) had the pressure down to 937mb (from 939 on the 18Z advisory) and convection certainly has increased in the western semi-circle. I believe with water temps still in the 81F-83F in Ivan's path and only slow cooling trends discernible in buoy trends from possible upwelling, Ivan may be making a play for cat 4 strength again.

EDIT: Stupid me, I though for some reason Ivan was a high-end cat 3. Ivan was and remains a cat 4.

Regards,

Mike
 
2012Z vortex report: 933Mb (down 4?), 10C eye temp elevation, 30 mile eye. It's a'crankin right now.

The 3:00 CDT buoy obs don't seem to have posted yet and it's about time for the 4:00 obs. Methinks the NDBC site is on storm leave.
 
Entire structure of Ivan is coming into range on the 248 nm ranges of Mobile and New Orleans. Not sure of any sites that mosaic the 248 nm data, but we're doing it here inhouse every 30 minutes:
http://www.stormtrack.org/ivan.gif

The eye should be much easier to track now. Eye at 2051Z is at 28.45N 88.18W and measures exactly 30-33 miles in diameter.

Edit: We bumped this up to 15 minute updates, and added METAR plots and pressure in inches for a composite.

Tim
 
Wow! As of 2050Z, buoy 42040 (64nm south of Dauphin Island) is recording wave heights of 44.9' with a period of 14 seconds.

Regards,

Mike
 
I dunno, Chris. Maybe it's updating every 30 seconds, but the weather should be a lot worse there now and the date should be today, not yesterday :wink: .
 
Very interesting listening. Sounds like they're actually starting to arrest people for curfew violation. If the track remains as it is now, with Mobile Bay in the right-front quadrant of the storm, there is going to be some immense storm surge.
 
The past 20 miles / 90 minutes of Ivan's path on radar shows a storm track of about 10 deg, which would project onto eastern coastal Alabama. Will check again in a couple of hours.

Pensacola NAS is now up to 52 mph gusts.

Tim
 
Originally posted by Austin Ivey

I moved this post from the forecast thread:

Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040

The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.

Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.

40 was the old "record"? The latest 2350z observation shows waves of 52 feet!! :shock: This looks to be very near the eye, though sustained winds are only in the 60-70mph range at that site. Pressure at that buoy is down to 28.3, and continues to drop rapidly...

The track does appear to have an easterly component, and now I really question whether it won't make landfall in the FL panhandle. Cloud-tops remain coldest in the southern semicircle, which may wrap around in time for landfall...

Concerning tornadoes... The low-level shear, per SPC mesoanalysis, is incredible! 0-3k SRH ~700m2/s2, though this is based on a northwesterly storm motion... There looks to be some decent tornado potential in GA, southeastern AL, and the FL panhandle, as CAPEs range from 500-1500. Numerous tornadoes have been reported already, with atleast two deaths due to two tornadoes per various media outlets (only one LSR so far, but NWSFOs are busy so...).
 
From the 40 Tornado Warnings so far:
AT 404 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR INLET BEACH

AT 422 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
COLQUITT.

AT 619 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR WHIGHAM...OR ABOUT NEAR CAIRO.

AT 635 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR PEOPLES STILL...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAIRO

AT 707 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 24 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON

AT 842 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ENTERPRISE.

AT 1018 PM EDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 23 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...OR NEAR WILLISTON.
From the Local Storm Reports so far:
0625 PM TORNADO 3 W PANAMA CITY 30.17N 85.72W
09/15/2004 BAY FL AMATEUR RADIO

*** 2 FATAL *** TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THOMAS DRIVE AND
GRAND LAGOON. TWO PERSONS WERE KILLED WHEN THE TORNADO
STRUCK A LOCAL RESTAURANT. TIME ESTIMATED.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTLH/0409160014.nwus52.html
EDIT: 0625 PM TORNADO PANAMA CITY 30.17N 85.72W
09/15/2004 BAY FL AMATEUR RADIO

*** 2 FATAL *** TWO PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND OTHERS TRAPPED
IN RUBBLE FROM THEIR DAMAGED HOMES IN ALLENTON AND
PANAMA CITY BEACH. DAMAGE TO A FIREHOUSE. OTHER TOUCHDOWNS
REPORTED AT CALLAWAY AND PARKER. TIME ESTIMATED. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTLH/0409160419.nwus52.html
Need help converting knots to mph:
Wind Speed Conversion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/windconvert.shtml

Mike
 
The track is now averaging 15-25 deg (true north) over the past 1.5 hours. This projects the path onto the FL/AL border.

Tim
 
931mb as of the latest recon min. central pressure report

122kts max flt level wind in SE quad.


We are truly witnessing a historical event!
 
Yes, a piece of history is definitely being made. Landfall at 931 mb would put Ivan in #3 spot for post-1960 landfall intensity (just behind Camille and Andrew).

Tim
 
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