9/15/04 NOW: Hurricane Ivan [Gulf Coast]

[Chris Sokol]

The Gulf Coast is now starting to experience the first effects of Ivan. Offshore buoy data is here:


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=350&time=3

 

[Robert Dewey]

Had this in the FCST thread, but moved it here:

Originally posted by rdewey
Looking at the VIS loop and long range NEXRAD, it appears that Ivan is still moving just west of north. My best guess is that it will pass very close to New Orleans...

 

[B Ozanne]

Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds. Not only are those big waves, that wave period is very long. Long period waves carry substantially more energy than short period waves. Much of that energy is below the surface so when they reach shallow waters they grow even larger. Although, that depends on the bottom contours and I couldn't imagine waves bigger than that hitting the gulf coast.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The 16:33 IR scan shows convection really blowing up on the northwest side of Ivan.

 

[B Ozanne]

CBS New Orleans seems to more up-to-date then the other affiliates. Good links to cams and live coverage on the web.

http://www.wwltv.com/

 

[Glen Romine]

Tornado threat will start to impact the Gulf Coast from around Apalachicola back to around Dauphin Island as an outer rainband with embedded mini-supercells drifts on shore. Several cells with TVS signatures just off the coast line - could be rather interesting as this moves on shore. The setup is classic, with the dry air intrusion sliding in just inside of the outer rainband - looking like Ivan will be making a name for itself in many ways (storm surge, wind damage, extreme inland flooding, and tornadoes).

Glen

 

[mikedeason]

Radar representation of Ivan looks nice on the Slidell RDA and it appears that the storm is moving just a few degrees west of 360 now. The eye also appears to contracted down to about 20 miles. Wouldn't surprise me to see the eye make landfall closer to the MS/AL line, possibly Jackson Co., MS. At the current speed, it's possible Ivan could make landfall between 05Z -07Z. With high tides occuring in and around Mobile Bay between 05Z-08Z, could be some extensive flooding in Mobile and Baldwin Counties by sunrise.

Regards,

Mike

 

[mikedeason]

C-MAN station on Dauphin Island (DPIA1) now has sustained tropical storm force winds (36G42KTS)

Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds.

Last report from 42040 (1850Z) now has wave heights up to 42 ft.

Regards,

Mike

 

[Austin Ivey]

Originally posted by mikedeason
C-MAN station on Dauphin Island (DPIA1) now has sustained tropical storm force winds (36G42KTS)

Buoy 42040 is reporting 35 ft waves at 17 seconds.

Last report from 42040 (1850Z) now has wave heights up to 42 ft.

Regards,

Mike

I moved this post from the forecast thread:


Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040



The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.


Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.

 

[mikedeason]

Last VORTEX message (1745Z) had the pressure down to 937mb (from 939 on the 18Z advisory) and convection certainly has increased in the western semi-circle. I believe with water temps still in the 81F-83F in Ivan's path and only slow cooling trends discernible in buoy trends from possible upwelling, Ivan may be making a play for cat 4 strength again.

EDIT: Stupid me, I though for some reason Ivan was a high-end cat 3. Ivan was and remains a cat 4.

Regards,

Mike

 

[David Wolfson]

2012Z vortex report: 933Mb (down 4?), 10C eye temp elevation, 30 mile eye. It's a'crankin right now.

The 3:00 CDT buoy obs don't seem to have posted yet and it's about time for the 4:00 obs. Methinks the NDBC site is on storm leave.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Entire structure of Ivan is coming into range on the 248 nm ranges of Mobile and New Orleans. Not sure of any sites that mosaic the 248 nm data, but we're doing it here inhouse every 30 minutes:
http://www.stormtrack.org/ivan.gif

The eye should be much easier to track now. Eye at 2051Z is at 28.45N 88.18W and measures exactly 30-33 miles in diameter.

Edit: We bumped this up to 15 minute updates, and added METAR plots and pressure in inches for a composite.

Tim

 

[mikedeason]

Wow! As of 2050Z, buoy 42040 (64nm south of Dauphin Island) is recording wave heights of 44.9' with a period of 14 seconds.

Regards,

Mike

 

[Chris Sokol]

Found a live webcam at Gulf Shores that is still updating:

http://www.gulflive.com/beachcam/

 

[Greg Campbell]

Nice catch, Chris. TY!

-Greg