Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
Not currently seeing much of an issue with high LCLs, as the target region appears to be <1000 for the most part ... CAPE is quite healthy for this time of year, checking in at >1500 J/kg. 0-1km EHI of 2.3, and >200 m2s2 are shaping tomorrow up as a 'strong tornado' day in my mind. If I could chase, I'd be focusing on the area just west of ICT. Wichita may want to batten down the hatches before the day is done.
Not for most of the area south of ICT. See
http://68.226.77.253/models/eta/central/CE...ML_LCL_36HR.gif ... With temps in the mid-upper 70s and Tds in the upper 50s to maybe low 60s, dewpoint deficits should be in the 15-25F range, which would support the 1600-2400m ML-LCL forecast by the NAM. Soundings through the Gulf coast region indicate a healthy deep moist layer, with the nice moisture 150-200mb deep (that's nice for May!). My primary concern still concerns initiation. Given initiation, I think the threat for low-level mesocyclones may be signficiant given strong low-level CAPE (12z NAM forecasting >150 j/kg 0-3km CAPE) along with strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH >100 in the warm sector). Forcing mechanisms aloft seem to be weak or against us, as the 12z NAM shows a relative vort min moving towards the target area by 0z, indicate DNVA and attendant subsidence. There's a chance the the souther edge of the stronger vort max to the north may clip the target area, so we'll just have to see. I was reminded that the NAM does have an occassional tendency to overmix the boundary layer (resulting in too-low Tds and too-veered sfc flow). The deep moisture profile to the south may also help keep the moisture Tds from mixing out too much.
Otherwise, there looks to be plenty of tilting and stretching potential, with a very real supercell threat (in fact, I think that'll be the prefered mode given initiation). The dryline doesn't look particularly intense, but then again, models tend to difuse the Td gradient in the vicinity of strong gradients such as that provided by a strong dryline. Otherwise, with a nearly normal / perpendicular orientation between the deep-layer shear vector and the dryline, in addition to the strong shear aloft and decent low-level instability, I would expect to see supercells, though that's entirely hinging on initiation. Regardless of tornado potential, the strong supercell potential (with good CAPE and strong shear favoring strong updrafts) and relatively low wetbulb zero level will likely promote very large hail (3") in any organized supercell that develops. Given the dewpoint deficits, I'd think damaging wind potential is there as well.
As others have noted, the sun does set relatively early. Too bad Congress decided to enact the Daylight Saving Time change in 2007 instead of 2006... Overall, it seems as though the change to DST will occur nearly 3 weeks earlier starting next year, which will definately be welcomed by me since that gives me more time to chase in the afternoon (assuming my classes get out around noon), and I certainly won't miss the hour of sunlight in the morning!
I may virtually target extreme southern KS (perhaps near or just east of Harper county, which almost always seems like a good location for mysteriously favored initiation based on my experience). Again, I'm trying to be as pessimistic as possible sinceI can't chase... My situation is kind of similar to Aaron's, in that I set aside tomorrow back in December... Again, what are the chances that a single early March day could turn out to be a potentially significant chase day? Ugh.
I expect to see a MDT risk should it become apparent that more than isolated supercells can develop. Remember that the categorical risks (SLT, MDT, HIGH) associated with a given set of probabilities changed a few weeks ago. Please see
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv...e_20060214.html for more information.
EDIT: Reviewing the new tables, I actually must say that I don't think a MDT risk would be issued, since a MDT now requires 15% tornado prob or 45% wind or 45% hatched hail... I do think they would hatch the hail risk, but I can't imagine seeing it any more than 15 given the isolated or widely scattered nature of the storms (maybe 30% if the coverage is more than widely scattered). If dewpoint deficits are more in the 10-15F range, resulting in LCLs that were more int eh 1200m range, I could see a 15% tornado risk IF coverage is more than isolated.
