Gabe Garfield
EF5
In my opinion, I don't think that Thursday looks very good for a significant severe weather episode. Most of the jet "energy" is forecast to be on the east side of the vort max (according to the GFS), which suggests a weakening storm. Also, GFS forecasts relatively low Tds where the greatest juxtaposition of instability and shear should be.
However, with that said, this morning's ECWMF suggests that the greatest severe threat for Thursday should be closer to the Gulf Coast (with the vort max significantly further south). This could be advantageous in that any storms that would form would be in close proximity to the GoM and the deeper moisture. I guess we'll have to see how this plays out. (It seems like we've been talking about this forever!
)
On another note, Tuesday is looking more and more interesting for the Southern Plains. Instead of a forecast for slight upper ridging, the ETA now forecasts slight upper troughing. Now, the CIN is still forecast to be insurmountable, but with the trend toward troughiness and the unreliability of model output this far in advance, it is feasible that a subtle wave could develop and set off deep convection. The environment would be fairly favorable for supercells, and perhaps even tornadoes (good deep-layer shear, helicity >200, CAPE > 1000). This day has been overlooked in favor of the more synoptically evident day, but it still bears watching, especially for those of us in the Southern Plains.
Gabe
EDIT: It should be noted that a system as dynamic as the one forecasted for Thursday is bound to produce some tornadoes. However, the threat for strong/violent tornadoes is somewhat reduced when instability parameters are low (though it obviously doesn't preclude such extreme events from occurring).
However, with that said, this morning's ECWMF suggests that the greatest severe threat for Thursday should be closer to the Gulf Coast (with the vort max significantly further south). This could be advantageous in that any storms that would form would be in close proximity to the GoM and the deeper moisture. I guess we'll have to see how this plays out. (It seems like we've been talking about this forever!
)On another note, Tuesday is looking more and more interesting for the Southern Plains. Instead of a forecast for slight upper ridging, the ETA now forecasts slight upper troughing. Now, the CIN is still forecast to be insurmountable, but with the trend toward troughiness and the unreliability of model output this far in advance, it is feasible that a subtle wave could develop and set off deep convection. The environment would be fairly favorable for supercells, and perhaps even tornadoes (good deep-layer shear, helicity >200, CAPE > 1000). This day has been overlooked in favor of the more synoptically evident day, but it still bears watching, especially for those of us in the Southern Plains.
Gabe
EDIT: It should be noted that a system as dynamic as the one forecasted for Thursday is bound to produce some tornadoes. However, the threat for strong/violent tornadoes is somewhat reduced when instability parameters are low (though it obviously doesn't preclude such extreme events from occurring).
