Bill Hark
EF5
After looking at the 3/14 (00 init) models, I am really starting to like north-central NC for some early evening supercells, possibly tornadic. There will be marginal but effective instability with backing of surface winds due to a strengthening surface low moving across TN and VA. I would prefer higher dewpoints but 55-60 should be enough for north-central NC. Upper level support is good with approaching jetmax though there is a tendency to shift to NW flow by later Saturday evening on both GFS and WRF. Helicity is forecast from the 300-400 and localized higher amounts. I am really liking the Burlington area (between Greensboro and Durham, NC) There will be an early Saturday morning storms, then a break before the main show. I am concerned that the best storms in my forecast area will occur at dusk. I'll have to make a decision tomorrow about activating my WX-WORX. Since I am off Saturday, a chase is likely.
Bill Hark
Bill Hark