2011 Predictions or best guesses

[Kris Harmon]

I don't know if I'm in the right part of the forum for this post, if not, please let me know.

How do you feel about this upcoming storm season. I'm in the South Plains and we are currently in a La Nina weather pattern. It's much warmer and incredibly dry compared to where we should be for this time of year. I was wondering how you guys think this might effect the spring storm season.

I'm counting down the days until the first severe outbreak of the New Year. Let me know what you predict for this area or whatever area you happen to be in.

KHarmon

 

[Skip Talbot]

There are good chase ops with photogenic tornadoes every single year. Even on the toughest of years, there are several great chase days with tornadoes in the plains. Predicting the season further than that is voodoo if you ask me. ENSO and NAO are just small pieces in global weather and the microscale features of storms we wind up chasing are subject to huge variability from infinite factors.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I get goose bumps when I think this 2010 - 2011 looks kind of similar to 98-99. But, until the season starts playing out you can only speculate.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think it may be an average to slow season for the Southern Plains, especially in the TX panhandle. It's been very dry around here this fall, so unless we get some needed moisture, the dryline may speed to the east on convective days.

Now, if the pattern changes and we get some good moisture, I think we'll be in business. All in all, I think an average to slightly below average year for my neck of the woods.

 

[Bob Hartig]

One thing I notice is that the ENSO forecast indicates GOM temps on the warm side of average during peak months. That may mean nothing or it may give a slight oomph to the conveyor in a year that, given the drier conditions that have been mentioned, will probably need it.

But like anything else this far out, that's pure speculation. If you want something more sophisticated, then if forum members will cover the cost of my chases this coming season, I'll dress up in my chicken costume and do my ceremonial Moisture Advection Dance. Buy me a decent video cam as well and I'll toss in my surefire Super-Steep Lapse Rates moves, along with the title deed to a nice patch of Florida real estate that I'm sure the whole community will enjoy.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I get goose bumps when I think this 2010 - 2011 looks kind of similar to 98-99. But, until the season starts playing out you can only speculate.

Hasn't every year up to this point looked like '98-'99 or '03-'04?

 

[Andy Jackson]

Hasn't every year up to this point looked like '98-'99 or '03-'04?

Too true... Anyway back to reality.

 

[Jarrod Barnett]

I can bet that even if Texas is slow, you will get more Tornadoes than Ohio.

Haha

 

[Adam Lucio]

Bob mentions the GOM forecast temps from ENSO - Didn't it show them below normal for this year or am I mistaken?

I have no idea what will happen in 2011 but I am ok with it turning out exactly like 2010. Maybe add 1 or 2 more good IL chases and it will be golden

 

[jamesmseitz]

Like Skip Said...... Every season will have a few great days. Yes 98-99 and 03-04 we amazing years but I saw some of my best storms in 09 before and after the death Ridge. Kirksville and Goshen. Patience and Vigilance is always key every Year.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Bob mentions the GOM forecast temps from ENSO - Didn't it show them below normal for this year or am I mistaken?

I have no idea what will happen in 2011 but I am ok with it turning out exactly like 2010. Maybe add 1 or 2 more good IL chases and it will be golden

You're right and I'm right. The maps actually show the GOM divided between slightly on both the high and low sides of the norm. Here's the ENSO link. Go to p. 28 and check out the temperature tables for March-April-May and April-May-June. (You'll want to enlarge the tables.) You'll see that while much of the Gulf appears a smidgen on the cool side, there's also a healthy area of warmer waters occupying much of the nearer-shore region from Florida west along much of the Gulf states.

That said, I second the motion for a couple more decent Illinois chases!

 

[Kris Harmon]

I'm hoping that this ridge of dry air breaks enough by spring to allow some gulf moisture to come in. This is going to be my second year of chasing, and since I don't have the time to chase much more than a couple hundred mile radius of my home, getting some storms into the South Plains is going to be essential to me having a successful year.

 

[Jason Foster]

May will be the best month most likely.

Sorry...couldn't resist.

I may have to do look at things again. I've been having a good run at some forecasts (nailed first day of 1" or more snow forecast 60 days out).

A few years back when I starting getting a little better at looking at various elements...the pattern (loosely based) seems to have a 3 - 2 - 3 inverse timeline pattern. I can't really explain that in detail meteorological way (since I'm not a met), but maybe I'll go back and and grab my statistics text book and get the right terms and explain it in a blog. Of course I have to add info from 2005 to now to make sure it still works...I never kept it up once my kidney issues put a hold on so much.

 

[ahaberlie]

La Nina with the sub-tropical jet further north than usual.. quieter for the southern plains and possibly more active for the northern plains, great lakes, and especially the illinois/kentucky/tennessee areas (relatively). In years like these, it is not unheard for tornado/severe weather outbreaks to happen in strange areas(for that time of year) such as northern illinois in january.

I do know that there is a pretty good snow pack along the northern Mississippi river, which could lead to spring flooding, more water in the ground, and more evapotranspiration that can keep those dewpoints respectable in the early spring further north.

**There are a ton of papers and research out there on the impact of variation in pacific surface temperature on the united states and more specifically for the amount of tornadoes.

The location of the variation can effect where you will see "more" tornadoes
The strength of the variation can effect the number of tornadoes

However, what happens in the winter can throw everything off. Like I said above, if there is flooding/a respectable snow run off that saturates the ground, LCLs will "go down" and the relative buoyancy of the air will rise earlier in the year thus allowing more potential tornado days.

There is even further evidence that wind shear is even more important than CAPE for tornado development.

It just opens up a can of worms my friends, I would suggest only to look in to this if you have a lot of time!

***That being said, if anyone can provide links to exceptional papers regarding trends in la nina/el nino years relating to tornado count, I would be extremely thankful.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

As every year I try to find comparison between years by taking a look at the Oni index pattern.
As for the statistical models forecasts we'll have a moderate La Nina condition in 2011. I tried to realize a map with a possible paralelism between 2009-2010-2011 and 1997-1998-1999: I mean, if you look with attention the dynamics of these years, you will find they are very very similiar in terms of Oni pattern and also in terms of outbreaks and periods of tornadoes.
So if 1999 has similarities with 2011 we could expect few and devastating outbreaks in May and a very active June (expecially in NE, SD,ND,IL,TN), many severe weather episodes and tornadoes in the northern Plains.
Infact during June 1999 we had many outbeaks in the northern plains: 1 June; 3 June with 22 tornadoes among NE and ND; 4 June in Ne and SD with many tornadoes in SD and 65 injuries in Shannon, SD; 6 June: 56 tornadoes in ND e IA; 20 June: 3 wedges in ND (200-300 yards of diameter).