2011 Predictions or best guesses

[Mike Krzywonski]

In light of what has been discussed/observed, does anyone have any predictions regarding May vs. June? I'm currently planning on chasing in May, but I'm wondering if I should reschedule for June instead.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm even more impressed by the analogies between April 13-14-15 1999 and the outbreaks of the last days (April 14, April 15 with 100 tornadoes in MS and AL, April 16 in SC and NC).
On April 13 99 we had severe storms in Ok and tornadoes in Tx, on April 14 99 Tornadoes in MS and AL (a copy of April 14 2011 with less tornadoes), and on April 15 tornadoes in SC adn NC (a copy of today??).

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990413/stormrpts_19990413.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990414/stormrpts_19990414.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990415/stormrpts_19990415.gif


So far we had these analogies between 99' and 11':

- Both years had an active end of February.

- April 8 1999 outbreak in IA ---------- April 9 2011 Outbreak in IA.

- April 13-14-15 1999 are nearly identical to April 14-15-16 2011.


That said, the parelism between 99' and '11 is more and more evident. Let's see the next days. Theorically the next severe episode in 99 was on April 21-22 in OK,KS,NE and on April 26 in OK, TX, AR, LA.

EDIT: April 21-22 99 and April 21-22 2011 had a similar short wave with a similar position of the cold fronto in OK and MO. More tornadoes in 2011.

 

[j_scheerer]

Regardless of what's to come, 2011 has already left a tragic and indelible mark for those in the Southeastern States, who have lost loved ones.

 

[Jesse Risley]

The only thing that I've seen recently of any substance is what Joe Bastardi recently put out there, making comparisons to previous years and how he thinks this year will compare: http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1135

At any rate, it's still sort of a long-range forecast at best; time will tell one way or another.

 

[Warren Faidley]

These types of predictions are weather sorcering at best.

Seasonal "tornado forecasts" are problematic for chasers -- and are rarely climatically accurate. Even if a season proves to be quite active, it does not always equate to "chaseable" storms," e.g, those occurring at night or in the jungles east of I-35. Even a seemingly "crummy" year can produce 1 or 2 gems that makes the entire season worthwhile. (Campo, CO). A sudden anomaly in an otherwise boring pattern can produce a week of insane activity anywhere in the Alley. The secret is identifying (once the Plains season settles) the area(s) where persistent severe weather is occurring and focus on that region. Last year it was northern areas. My gut feeling is that this year will likely be a hodge-podge of activity spanning the entire regions of the Alley since La Nina and El Nino are neutral.

W.

 

[E. Clark]

La Nina with the sub-tropical jet further north than usual.. quieter for the southern plains and possibly more active for the northern plains, great lakes, and especially the illinois/kentucky/tennessee areas (relatively). In years like these, it is not unheard for tornado/severe weather outbreaks to happen in strange areas(for that time of year) such as northern illinois in january..

Yep. I just made note of this theory for this year on the Discussion thread for 4/16. I believe you are right. My concern is if television/radio people can properly handle a severe outbreak in an area that does not often see extreme weather.

 

[Steve Smithson]

I'm over from the UK chasing with Cloud 9 from May 21st to June 5th, I keep hearing mainly Northern Plains chasing and more to the East by several chase friends of mine, it's a bit more comforting to know after watching the video from Joe Bastardi that this year is shaping up to be more and more like 2008.

Yes I like to be positive, but I'm keeping an open mind as to what 2011 holds.

Steve Smithson.

 

[Kris Harmon]

I am so frustrated. I had to sit at work this afternoon and watch a beautiful super cell develop about 50 miles south (Big Spring) and move off to the south east. Would have loved to have been on that storm as it put down a tornado in the Abilene area. Ugh!!!!!

 

[Chris Hayes]

This has been the most active month on record for confirmed tornadoes with at least 252 confirmed so far. Little doubt in my mind we'll surpass 300 for April. Question is, will May/June be like 2006, average, or 2008? Here's hoping for at least average, or 2008!

 

[Kris Harmon]

This has been the most active month on record for confirmed tornadoes with at least 252 confirmed so far. Little doubt in my mind we'll surpass 300 for April. Question is, will May/June be like 2006, average, or 2008? Here's hoping for at least average, or 2008!

Problem I have is with work I have a very limited chase area and window. If it's not happening within a couple hundred miles of me during my time off, I'm done. We need some weather in the south plains. I want to get out and chase, and we need the rain to do something about the wild fires in this area. There was another one today just south of Lamesa. I could see the smoke on the way home and it looked like a big fire.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I see the NAO is beginning to trend negative once May rolls around, this leads me to believe we may see a bit of a slowdown in the activity, unless we get some of those crazy NWS flow events up here in the midwest...but I wont hold my breath.

Its always fun to watch how it evolves though, no pattern lasts forever and sooner or later the April tornado insanity will come to an end, that is why I always chase NOW, regardless of what month it is!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

This has been the most active month on record for confirmed tornadoes with at least 252 confirmed so far. Little doubt in my mind we'll surpass 300 for April. Question is, will May/June be like 2006, average, or 2008? Here's hoping for at least average, or 2008!

Chris, to find a solution, we only can make comparison with other similar years and take a look at the various index. I often make a comparison with other years and looking at Oni index it looks like that so far our season had the same index of 1999 and to be sincere, severe weather places and short waves was very very similar between 1999 and 2011 (sometimes we had also corrispondences between severe weather days and places hit by storms and tornadoes).

Now, taking a look at the last predicitons of the statistical models about Oni, we are getting into a pattern that has many analogies with 2008 one, as regards the second half of May and June.

 

[Steve Smithson]

Now, taking a look at the last predicitons of the statistical models about Oni, we are getting into a pattern that has many analogies with 2008 one, as regards the second half of May and June.

That would make me smile

Steve Smithson.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

That would make me smile

Steve Smithson.

Me too
Anyway there's nothing else to do but wait and see.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm even more impressed by the analogies between April 13-14-15 1999 and the outbreaks of the last days (April 14, April 15 with 100 tornadoes in MS and AL, April 16 in SC and NC).
On April 13 99 we had severe storms in Ok and tornadoes in Tx, on April 14 99 Tornadoes in MS and AL (a copy of April 14 2011 with less tornadoes), and on April 15 tornadoes in SC adn NC (a copy of today??).

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990413/stormrpts_19990413.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990414/stormrpts_19990414.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990415/stormrpts_19990415.gif


So far we had these analogies between 99' and 11':

- Both years had an active end of February.

- April 8 1999 outbreak in IA ---------- April 9 2011 Outbreak in IA.

- April 13-14-15 1999 are nearly identical to April 14-15-16 2011.


That said, the parelism between 99' and '11 is more and more evident. Let's see the next days. Theorically the next severe episode in 99 was on April 21-22 in OK,KS,NE and on April 26 in OK, TX, AR, LA.

-April 21-22 99 and April 21-22 2011 had a similar short wave with a similar position of the cold fronto in OK and MO. More tornadoes in 2011.

-April 26 199 was very similar with April 26 2011: both years had tornadoes and widespread severe weather in the same zones.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990426/stormrpts_19990426.gif
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/20110426/stormrpts_20110426.gif

-April 27 1999 had a not so widespread severe weather episode as April 27 2011, but it happened always in AL, GA.