2011 Predictions or best guesses

[Dennis Dennison]

I am thinking that it will be a long winter-I think its going to stay cold for quite a while and then the time between cold and hot will be short--hope that makes sense.

I think we will we a lot of action farther north than what is normal too.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Based on my analogs, I would say that, as far as May is concerned, the most active places will be the Northern Plains and Midwest. This lines up well with what has already been said, so I won't go into detail.

 

[Brandon Copic]

I can bet that even if Texas is slow, you will get more Tornadoes than Ohio.

Haha

Jarrod I agree Ohio really sucks with tornadoes but this season we did surprisingly well in my area (Northwestern Ohio, Southeastern Michigan) especially June 5th. That day I had 6 tornadoes reported within a good 60 mile radius I easily could have chased, but they were at night...it seems that we always seem to get screwed one way or another

I am just hoping that this season I can bag myself a tornado, last year was quite a good year for myself, didn't get a tornado but had an amazing time chasing, this season I've got my mobile internet and will be doing streaming also, but with Streaming like I've heard many chasers say...its a pain in the butt, realized that just trying to test it out this week!

 

[ahaberlie]

Right on cue! A tornado watch and reported tornadoes in Illinois and it is New Years Eve.. should be an interesting year for the midwest.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

As every year I try to find comparison between years by taking a look at the Oni index pattern.
As for the statistical models forecasts we'll have a moderate La Nina condition in 2011. I tried to realize a map with a possible paralelism between 2009-2010-2011 and 1997-1998-1999: I mean, if you look with attention the dynamics of these years, you will find they are very very similiar in terms of Oni pattern and also in terms of outbreaks and periods of tornadoes.
So if 1999 has similarities with 2011 we could expect few and devastating outbreaks in May and a very active June (expecially in NE, SD,ND,IL,TN), many severe weather episodes and tornadoes in the northern Plains.
Infact during June 1999 we had many outbeaks in the northern plains: 1 June; 3 June with 22 tornadoes among NE and ND; 4 June in Ne and SD with many tornadoes in SD and 65 injuries in Shannon, SD; 6 June: 56 tornadoes in ND e IA; 20 June: 3 wedges in ND (200-300 yards of diameter).

So far the paralelism between 1999 and 2011 works. I expected some good storms episodes at the end of February and it verified.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990227/stormrpts_19990227.gif

Both years had an active end of February.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Based on my analogs, I would say that, as far as May is concerned, the most active places will be the Central Plains and Midwest. This lines up well with what has already been said, so I won't go into detail.

Fixed Did a little more digging and found that the Central Plains actually did alright/good. The Midwest is still the best chance, IMO. The Southeast will do good early, but as the upper-level ridge develops over the Southeast for met. summer the systems will get pushed further north.

 

[Derek Heide]

So far the paralelism between 1999 and 2011 works. I expected some good storms episodes at the end of February and it verified.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990227/stormrpts_19990227.gif

Both years had an active end of February.

Andrea, very interesting information.

Do you know how Manitoba did in 1999? I am really hoping for a busy season. The last few years have been quiet.

 

[Marko Korosec]

New IRI Columbia ENSO Forecast update is out today; predicting 49% for La Nina, 45% for Neutral and 6% for El Nino probability during the AMJ period:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/201103/QuickLook.html

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am curious if anyone has charts which show previous years where we were coming out of a La Nina and going into a neutral phase by summer.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I am curious if anyone has charts which show previous years where we were coming out of a La Nina and going into a neutral phase by summer.

2008 reminds you anything?
This is 2008 Oni pattern, very similar with this new 2011 Nina forecast.

 

[Derek Weston]

2008 reminds you anything?
This is 2008 Oni pattern, very similar with this new 2011 Nina forecast.

Was going to say this when I saw Greg's query... this year is reminding me quite a bit of 08 now. (at least in what I'm seeing in the plains, the below normal temps in the midwest... the SE hasn't heated up too much yet, but I'm sure it's coming here more so in April)

 

[Chris Hayes]

A repeat of 2008 would be great. However, if you look back back at Jan-March in '08 there were probably 200 more tornadoes tornadoes during that time period than there has been so far this year. Confirmed tornadoes so far this year is over 100, but it was 360 for Jan-March in '08. It might not mean a lot, but this year is getting off to a much slower start. On the updside, it's a much quicker start than the same period last year when there was only 64 tornadoes the first 3 months of the year.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am hopeful. Yesterday there was an 81 degree dewpoint on the Yucatan Peninsula with mid to upper 70s dewpoints in the GOM. Despite the fact the GOM will likely be raked over by several more cold fronts, it appears like the GUlf will be able to recharge as we get toward the end of April. The other thing I am hopeful for is the strong polar jet in place. While the overall pattern hasn't been favorable for Plains chasing, I am sure its only a matter of time before we get west coast troughing this spring.

 

[Derek Weston]

Very early pattern observation....eastern Kansas northeast through SW Nebraska/NW Missouri into Western Iowa seems to be a rather popular storm track. (when noticing long-range GFS patterns this spring)

 

[Andrea Griffa]

So far the paralelism between 1999 and 2011 works. I expected some good storms episodes at the end of February and it verified.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/SPCStormReports/19990227/stormrpts_19990227.gif

Both years had an active end of February.

Here's another paralelism that works btween 1999 and 2011: April 8 1999 outbreak in IA. April 9 2011 Outbreak in IA.
All this stuff is becoming really interesting