2011 Predictions or best guesses

[Marko Korosec]

Even I think this is more like a very good concidence what are you pointing at, Andrea... there is one important thing that must not be neglected this year. According to the latest SSTs from GoM, we're facing an almost record breaking anomalies there. Jeff Master's has some words on it here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1791

Surely the juice from GoM is a very important ingredient for severe storms and looks like it might be also a cause for lots of rain in the MS valley (higher Tds) as well as resulting in higher instability and giving fuel for severe storms.

My gut feeling for this season since Feb was the well above average number or tornadoes, given the strong La Nina (now fading) and now after seing possitive SSTs of GoM and still negative anomalies from N Plains/Canada, this should result in very dynamic season of 2011. The difference in between is very high this year. And indeed, I too am a fan of those ENSO correlations with US tornado season and stats are clear; above normal number of tornadoes is evident in La Nina years.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Even I think this is more like a very good concidence what are you pointing at, Andrea... there is one important thing that must not be neglected this year. According to the latest SSTs from GoM, we're facing an almost record breaking anomalies there. Jeff Master's has some words on it here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1791

Surely the juice from GoM is a very important ingredient for severe storms and looks like it might be also a cause for lots of rain in the MS valley (higher Tds) as well as resulting in higher instability and giving fuel for severe storms.

My gut feeling for this season since Feb was the well above average number or tornadoes, given the strong La Nina (now fading) and now after seing possitive SSTs of GoM and still negative anomalies from N Plains/Canada, this should result in very dynamic season of 2011. The difference in between is very high this year. And indeed, I too am a fan of those ENSO correlations with US tornado season and stats are clear; above normal number of tornadoes is evident in La Nina years.

Very nice point Marko!
The SST anomaly is a really interesting arguement and I'm pretty sure this could be one of the most responsible factors for the recent historic "Superoutbreak".

As for the paralelism between 1999 and 2011, I saw that the Nina is getting neutral and it's changing toward a pattern really similar to 2008. Next days I'm gonna check if the ONI pattern will remain similar to 99 or if it will change with a a 2008 component.