2005 Hurricane predictions compared to reality

[Chris Hayes]

Anyone got the information on what the forecast for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was, compared to what's been delivered so far? I havent kept up. All I know is, it's a record season.
Tropical Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
and Possible landfalling storms

 

[Jeff Snyder]

May 16 NHC forecast:
Tropical Storms: 12-15
Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 3-5
70% prob of above normal, 20% prob of normal, 10% prob of below normal

August 2 NHC forecast:
Tropical Storms: 18-21
Hurricanes: 9-11
Major Hurricanes: 5-7
95-100% prob of above normal

May 31 Dr. Gray (CSU) forecast:
Tropical Storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Major Hurricanes: 4

August 1 Dr. Gray (CSU) forecast:
Tropical Storms: 20
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes: 6

ACTUAL (to 10-25-05 19z):
Tropical Storms: 22
Hurricanes: 12
Major Hurricanes: 6

Landfalling (discounting island landfalls) named storms: Arlene (FL), Bret (Mexico), Cindy (Yucatan as TD, Louisiana), Dennis (FL), Emily (Yucatan, mainland Mexico), Gert (Mexico), Jose (Mexico), Katrina (FL, LA, MS), Rita (LA), Stan (Yucatan, mainland Mexico), Tammy (FL), Vince (first ever recorded tropical cyclone to make landfall in Spain), Wilma (Yucatan, FL)

Note that there may be a new tropical cyclone in the southwestern Caribbean by Thursday, then we have the rest of the year. Note that, during the past 2 year, there have been 3 named storms that extended beyond the official end of the season.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Here are some links about this:

- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl.../hurricane.html
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl.../hurricane.html
- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm
- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2438.htm

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Dr. Gray's / CSU forecast is at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ , for what it's worth.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Thanks for all the replies.