2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[Mike Smith]

Hey everyone posting,

Please label models properly. Lance, that is not the 00Z run of NAM or WRF, it is the 18Z run valid at 00Z on the 2nd, at least as I read the label. Since this storm is of such long duration, please put the day or date, also.

Thanks!!!

Mike

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Hey everyone posting,

Please label models properly. Lance, that is not the 00Z run of NAM or WRF, it is the 18Z run valid at 00Z on the 2nd, at least as I read the label. Since this storm is of such long duration, please put the day or date, also.

Thanks!!!

Mike

Mike, the first link is indeed the 00z NAM.

 

[Trey Thee]

Seems the NAM wants to make a rather radical shift to the northwest, putting over 24 inches in parts of Oklahoma. Not sure what's going on with it, as there are some interesting anomalies in the first few frames.

Really looks like something didn't initialize properly on that run. As you said pretty substantial shift, basically knocks snowfall totals for Tulsa down to 6 to 8 inches except for far northwest portions of the metro. OKC gets clobbered on this run.

 

[Marc Austin]

Sitting in Norman, OK waiting for these convective cells to move closer. It'd be interesting to get lightning with sleet and freezing rain. Currently 28 F at the sfc here in Norman, so frozen precip is a definite.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Mike, the first link is indeed the 00z NAM.

Re: Lance's (edit: second image!) posted a few above mine... The bottom label has "110201/1800V021 (1N)". Now, I take that to mean that the fcst is valid at 18z on 2/1/11, and it's a 21 hr forecast. That means it's from a 21 UTC model run, which tells me it's probably from SREF or some other ensemble. The "(1N)" also would suggest it's one ensemble member. JR posted this on Facebook around 0130 UTC, which means it can't be from the this evening's NAM.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to minor s and the locations of the minima and maxima. Remember, these are computer models, and even minor errors of 0.10-0.30" QPF (which probably wouldn't be noticed in warm season when it falls as rain) can make huge differences in total snow accumulations (particularly at high snow:liquid ratios). The fact that the forecast is for such an anomalous event is reason itself for me to be a bit conservative in forecasting snowfall totals.

EDIT: I got confused as to which graphic Lance was stating was from the 0z NAM. The second link is not, but the first is (as he noted, and as can be seen at the link location).

 

[Mike Smith]

Lance,
Thanks for setting me straight. Where do you get it that fast?
Mike

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Lance,
Thanks for setting me straight. Where do you get it that fast?
Mike

No problem at all, Mike. I am sure things are hectic for anyone making a forecast right now. It just appears TwisterData gets their representations out FAST.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Freezing Rain now being reported at KOKC

----------------------------------------
METAR KOKC 03:09Z 02/01/11
KOKC 010309Z 35018G29KT 10SM -FZRA OVC017
M03/M07 A3008 RMK AO2 PK WND 01029/0303
UPB04E09FZRAB09 P0000

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'll eat my crow later, but gungho as I am I'm hard pressed to believe those 24"+ totals from tonights NAM that have gone viral. Willing to bet there is a lot of feedback going on, and that the areas highlighted will stand a good chance at a mix between heavy wet snow and sleet perhaps even freezing rain early, which won't be ideal for rapid accumulations. Perhaps it's on to something, but it raises more questions than excitement for me.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

SPC just issued a very in depth and technical Winter Wx MD for OK/TX along I-35 corridor. I highly encourage you folks to check it out.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Sleet and Thunder now 2 miles west of Moore, OK

 

[Andrew Francis]

Looking @ the precip bubble form and progress over S OK, It appears that OKC/West OKC could get dry slotted almost? It is hard to tell, but I keep watching radar and it appears that the band of precip. is setting up just east of the OKC area...


Hopefully I am psyching myself out and we won't actually get dry slotted.


Any reports out of Norman on the precip type and if there is thunder yet?

 

[DWest]

00z GFS finally coming in, doens't seem to want to follow the NAM's lead, although it's still putting a lot of precip down for eastern OK. Doesn't appear all of it is falling as snow, as the QPF doesn't quite match up with the model's projected snow totals. Seems to be somewhat reflective of the current real time situation.

 

[Marc Austin]

Plenty of thunder and lightning here in Norman, OK with sleet coming down in bands. Very surreal for someone from Florida.

 

[DWest]

Plenty of thunder and lightning here in Norman, OK with sleet coming down in bands. Very surreal for someone from Florida.

Make sure you get some video of it!