2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[Trey Thee]

00z GFS finally coming in, doens't seem to want to follow the NAM's lead, although it's still putting a lot of precip down for eastern OK. Doesn't appear all of it is falling as snow, as the QPF doesn't quite match up with the model's projected snow totals. Seems to be somewhat reflective of the current real time situation.

Interesting that this late in the game, one shifts the precip west, the other east...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looks like the 0z NAM has really toned down QPF values across a large area. I'm guessing, given the distribution of the QPF, that the moisture is being intercepted by convection across the south. This is one of the rare times that I'll say "I hope storms don't fire." What the NAM shows is a real possibility, however. GFS is still consistent, at least across the northern portion of the storm.

 

[DWest]

Interesting that this late in the game, one shifts the precip west, the other east...

GFS doesn't seem to have actually shifted the track, but really cut back on the QPF - we'll have to just see what happens I guess, provided the late significant model changes and what we're hearing from the folks in Oklahoma right now.

 

[Trey Thee]

GFS doesn't seem to have actually shifted the track, but really cut back on the QPF - we'll have to just see what happens I guess, provided the late significant model changes and what we're hearing from the folks in Oklahoma right now.

Thunder sleet at my buddies house in MWC and at my mom's house in Bethany. Precip seems to be running a couple hours ahead of schedule. We've got freezing mist/very light rain off and on here for an hour now (Owasso).

edit: GFS definitely moved the heavy snow to the south and east a bit...

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

NEWS9 will be streaming LIVE on news9.com throughout the entirety of the winter storm as they did during the Xmas 2009 Blizzard

 

[Tim Vasquez]

From our place, 10 miles east of Norman it is coming down almost entirely as IP... I'm seeing almost no ZR. Am really glad of that, too; I was pretty concerned earlier. The sleet is covering most surfaces now (i.e. about 1/4" depth).

This is good... at last we're getting a handle on the thermal characteristics of this situation.

Tim

 

[Robert Dewey]

Since sleet is pretty much a 1:1 ratio (it's simply drops of melted snow which have refroze), it quickly eats into potential snow accumulations... especially when you consider 1/4 of an inch could have been 3 inches of snow on a 12:1 ratio.

EDIT: not accounting for the expansion of ice.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

The complex developing NNW of San Angelo is nothing short of impressive.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Some great stats up on the WGN blog:
http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/

Looks like this storm will easily make the top five in terms of accumulation for Chicago's snow storms and we might have a shot at the record given local accumulations forecast over 20". The easterly winds gusting to 50 are forecast create blizzard conditions and drop visibility down to a quarter mile. Even more impressive in my opinion are the 10-20 foot waves that could kick up on Lake Michigan potentially flooding Lake Shore Drive in Chicago. I might spend the night at the office tomorrow night, which is about four blocks from Lake Shore Drive, do some streaming or shoot some video of the blizzard and wave action.

 

[Darin Scoggins]

Here in Davis, OK....about 30 miles north of Ardmore up I-35..... we have a steady dose of freezing rain with occasional rumbles of thunder...

EDIT: as of 10:45pm it has now transitioned to thunder-sleet

 

[DWest]

Have been watching the radar trends over the last couple of hours, seems the activity is starting to move more easterly as it moves across northern Oklahoma. Am hopeful that remains the case, as the 00z NAM had me scared for a bit!

 

[Andrew Francis]

Looks like the east-forecast is the winner. The system tracked a little further east before jogging north. Not sure how much snow we have here in N OKC, but I don't think it is near 10 inches. Alot of drifting from the wind, can't really tell the rate of snowfall because of all the blowing snow. Definitely blizzard conditions!

Looks like NE OK and SW MO are going to get slammed. I bet there will be 15"+ amounts in that region. Springfield MO, watch out!

 

[Bryan Wood]

It's all Freezing Rain here in Fairborn,OH (Just E of Dayton). Everything is covered in ice...I'd estimate about 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of ice accumulation so far. I'm very interested in seeing Wilmington's 12Z sounding....the 0Z sounding was a classic freezing rain sounding.

 

[Trey Thee]

We had the most impressive round of thundersleet I've ever seen. This happened last night between 11 and midnight, I was in bed, I woke up to pretty impressive thunder a few times. Woke up at just aftermidnight to look out the window and I had a solid half inch of sleet covering everything.

As of now (7am) I have snow which ranges in depth from 6 inches to about 18 inches. I'll get out and snag some pics in an hour or so.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Currently (almost 7 am) east of Norman OK we've only picked up what looks like about 3 inches of snow. There's a lot of drifting and I haven't attempted to take any measurements, but so far it appears this is barely even on the same order of magnitude as what the NAM was forecasting, and suggests maybe the GEM (Canadian) model had the best handle on things.

Mike Smith's cautionary observations about precipitable water were probably right on the mark.

The cold... yikes.

Tim