2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[Chris Carter]

24 hours ago we had a forecast of 7 - 12 inches, we now are looking at 4 - 6 inches.

Now I'm looking forward to the next storm early next week, which unfortunately looks to stay south of our area as well.

 

[Trey Thee]

Yeah, the NAM is still going for the same "apocalypse 2011" situation but I notice that the southern edge of the snow track appears to be very tightly defined. If the models are tucking their tails regarding those big snowfall amounts I'm really hoping that this isn't an indication of enhanced WAA and freezing rain. Then again what would an Oklahoma winter be without another Arbuckles Ice Storm™.

Tim

Funny you mentioned that, my Mom called me about 4:15 (I live in tulsa) I said that one model had backed off the snow and probably exchanged it for freezing rain/sleet. I'd rather them and us get snow...but thats just me.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here is a problem for very heavy snows. The 00Z FTW sounding only has about 0.55" of precipitable water. That isn't going to cut it. CRP isn't much higher.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Mike I don't claim to be any kind of a winter forecaster, so I'm really interested in what you just said. I am just outside KJLN in SE Kansas and we are basically pulling out all the stops (I'm in the public safety sector). SGF has a "snowmageddon" forecast for our area N of I-44. Schools and county government have been closed in advance of the storm and some facilities have already announced they will be closed for the next three days. At every period the forecasted totals have been increased. There is also not alot of range being given. Our forecast now calls for 15-17". If the snowfall totals don't verify or come close, I think the public feedback will be quite interesting.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Precipitable water values are tied to the dewpoint, so wouldn't a colder environment naturally have a lower precipitable water value?

 

[CZandbergen]

One thing to think about is when we get this close to an event I start trusting the shorter range products much more than I do the longer range products. Everything I am seeing in current observations points to things playing out as predicted earlier. The latest HRRR run validates it. Only goes out to 14Z at this point though.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrco...maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1

 

[Jeff Snyder]

GPS retrieved precipitate water (SUOMINET) shows higher PW just E of the DFW area, with a larger area of 0.65-0.90"; GOES retrieved PW show simiilar. I'm not terribly familiar with PW climatologies during winter weather events in the southern plains through mid-Mississippi river valley, so I'm not too sure if 0.55" is really very low for heavy snowfall events around here.

EDIT: PW climatology indicates that these values are higher than average, though, again, I'm not sure how these values compare to past winter storms. Of course, it's easiest to get 1" PW in Oklahoma in January if we have 55 dewpoints in a deep, rich Gulf moisture environment.

 

[Robert Dewey]

One thing to think about is when we get this close to an event I start trusting the shorter range products much more than I do the longer range products. Everything I am seeing in current observations points to things playing out as predicted earlier. The latest HRRR run validates it. Only goes out to 14Z at this point though.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrco...maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1

I will say the HRRR has been right more often than not when I've used it for winter forecasting. It nailed the dry slot awhile back, when everything else pointed to it passing just south of us.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Local media ignoring the new GFS, as it looks pretty not likely...

NWS instead posting bulletin in regards to blizzard warning upgrade in C and NE OK.


The local mets are jumping all over the new bulletin saying the initial estimates for the OKC area were too low. Now saying 10-12 inches is more likely than the previous 6-8 - thus putting 15+ inches over NE OK. Also more emphasis on staying indoors as the winds will be crazy. I just got home from work and I must say, the streets in OKC are packed - people are rushing around trying to get stuff and the Wal-Marts here are filled to the back of the lots.


Per radar, moisture is beginning to saturate the atmosphere all over W OK with thunderstorms moving up in Central N TX.
I think we may see some thundersnow in OK in some of the heavier precip bands. This is gunna be fun!

 

[Mike Smith]

Precipitable water values are tied to the dewpoint, so wouldn't a colder environment naturally have a lower precipitable water value?

Rob,

FTW was barely north of the CF when the balloon was released. I was expecting to see at least 0.9" and I was expecting at least 1.2" at CRP.

With regard to the satellite soundings, I don't trust those when there are clouds and in winter situations. That said, SHV rawinsonde had 0.8" PW so they may be correct in this instance.

So we are clear, I am certain blizzard criteria will be met. However, I can't see 20" in OK and adjacent areas with these PW's.

Mike

 

[Trey Thee]

Local media ignoring the new GFS, as it looks pretty not likely...

As Tim and I were discussing on the prior page, the lower snow amounts on the new GFS could be the result of higher sleet/ice accumulations...also keep in mind it is just one run. We'll see what the NAM looks like in an hour or so.

 

[DWest]

As Tim and I were discussing on the prior page, the lower snow amounts on the new GFS could be the result of higher sleet/ice accumulations...also keep in mind it is just one run. We'll see what the NAM looks like in an hour or so.

Seems the NAM wants to make a rather radical shift to the northwest, putting over 24 inches in parts of Oklahoma. Not sure what's going on with it, as there are some interesting anomalies in the first few frames.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Wow, the 00z runs of the NAM/WRF are off the charts for central Oklahoma.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hpho...4_933292866547_9631690_47305065_7791887_n.jpg

 

[Andrew Francis]

Seems the NAM wants to make a rather radical shift to the northwest, putting over 24 inches in parts of Oklahoma. Not sure what's going on with it, as there are some interesting anomalies in the first few frames.

This could be a response to the reflectivity showing up in N TX moving N. embedded thundershowers in bands are developing all over SW OK and S OK into N TX. These are all about to push into the freezing line. I am interested to hear reports from SW OK as to what is falling from the sky, be it sleet or snow.

 

[DWest]

This could be a response to the reflectivity showing up in N TX moving N. embedded thundershowers in bands are developing all over SW OK and S OK into N TX. These are all about to push into the freezing line. I am interested to hear reports from SW OK as to what is falling from the sky, be it sleet or snow.

In general, the shift of the deeper snow field at least 40 miles northwest doesn't make much sense to me, especially given previous run-to-run consistency. Anybody know what changed?