2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[jshields]

tim- i often look at earl's for snow amounts too, and for some reason the gem is always WAY low when it comes to amounts. i've often seen it with half the amounts that are forecast and eventually verified! just a personal thing i've noticed

Regarding the GEM depiction of snowfall totals, I had been looking at this:

http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

This says about 4 inches in OKC and Tulsa with 8-10 inches in Missouri. I agree that the QPFs do appear to be in the same ballpark, so the GEM's snowfall figures are a bit of a mystery. If the GEM gets this one right and we get hosed on snow, I'll have to pay more attention to it in the future.

Tim

 

[Chris Carter]

The ECMWF continues to remain the outlier with this event.

Its funny how cities on the northern part of the track seem to be calling the GFS the outlier and the Euro being backed by the NAM and GEM, while folks on the southern extent of the track seem to say the Euro is the outlier with the GFS being back by the NAM and GEM.

Its a funny little world we live in. Euro, NAM and GEM have been slowing the system down and bring it further to the NW, while the GFS has been the quicker of all of them and with the furthest southern track. Just a sidenote, the Euro has the strongest solution out of the 4 for the low pressure coming out of the southern rockies.

 

[Robert Dewey]

HRRR is pretty aggressive rolling moderate snow across northern IL / IN / OH later this evening into tonight, with as much as 5 inches. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. SREF shows a good probability of EPV <0.25 with decent frontogenesis. Plenty of dry air to the north, however.

 

[jshields]

Its funny how cities on the northern part of the track seem to be calling the GFS the outlier and the Euro being backed by the NAM and GEM, while folks on the southern extent of the track seem to say the Euro is the outlier with the GFS being back by the NAM and GEM.

Its a funny little world we live in. Euro, NAM and GEM have been slowing the system down and bring it further to the NW, while the GFS has been the quicker of all of them and with the furthest southern track. Just a sidenote, the Euro has the strongest solution out of the 4 for the low pressure coming out of the southern rockies.

yeah maybe some wishcasting?! the hpc said at their noon update they are going with the euro/gem as of right now.....


here are some QPF totals from the 12z Euro:

MSP: 0.17"
OMA: 0.57"
DSM: 1.11"
MKC: 1.58"
ICT: 0.62"
JLN: 1.51"
TUL: 1.54"
OKC: 1.22"
STL: 1.40"
PAH: 1.01"
SPI: 1.64"
PIA: 1.61"
DVN: 1.44"
CID: 1.25"
DBQ: 1.09"
MSN: 0.91"
MKE: 1.23"
FLD: 0.54"
SBM: 0.59"
ORD: 1.52"
LAF: 1.33"
IND: 1.44"
FWA: 1.57"
DAY: 1.27"
CMH: 1.24"
GRR: 1.12"
DTW: 1.18"
CLE: 1.23"
YYZ: 1.07"

 

[DWest]

St. Louis just informing us via AFD that they're going to be issuing blizzard warnings for northern and western portions of their CWA.

QUICK UPDATE TO SAY THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING
FROM 12Z TUESDAY UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. APPEARS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN
12-20 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESAY MORNING. NEW WSW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

 

[Travis Stone]

It appears at the sgf's website is farked, thousands of people in central Missouri just got home from walmart and logged onto the site with baited breath. lol

 

[DWest]

It appears at the sgf's website is farked, thousands of people in central Missouri just got home from walmart and logged onto the site with baited breath. lol

At least I'm not the only one noticing it - also, for some reason I'm unable to load eSpotter at all, needed to call LSX and ask them to change something for me - guess I'm going to have to wait.

 

[Jason Bolt]

SGF loads just fine for me. Looks like they were updating to a Blizzard Warning, maybe that was freezing it up.

 

[DWest]

SGF loads just fine for me. Looks like they were updating to a Blizzard Warning, maybe that was freezing it up.

Seems to have been the case, not sure why it clogged the whole site up though. I digress though, we're going a bit off-topic...

latest NAM places a more narrow band of 18-22 inches along the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma extending into western Illinois. Will be interesting to see if the GFS follows in intensifying that area as well.

Edit: With regard to the pages loading slowly, NOAA's home page issued the following statement citing technical issues:

Web Status

Due to technical problems, you may experience slow or unresponsive pages.

System administrators are working to resolve the issues as quickly as possible.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

 

[Darren Addy]

Maybe they did have "baited breath" but I hope it was bated breath.

 

[Kevin Rolfs]

Most of you are probably already aware, but TUL and OUN have upgraded to Blizzard warnings roughly along and north of I-44 from OKC points northeast. OUN's forecast discussion calls for 35 mph sustained winds tomorrow with gusts to 45 common. Can't wait to see how big and where drifts will set up!!

 

[Trey Thee]

Most of you are probably already aware, but TUL and OUN have upgraded to Blizzard warnings roughly along and north of I-44 from OKC points northeast. OUN's forecast discussion calls for 35 mph sustained winds tomorrow with gusts to 45 common. Can't wait to see how big and where drifts will set up!!

The latest GFS really backs the snow way off for OKC. Down to 3 to 5 inches for the metro. Very odd...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The latest GFS really backs the snow way off for OKC. Down to 3 to 5 inches for the metro. Very odd...

Yeah, the NAM is still going for the same "apocalypse 2011" situation but I notice that the southern edge of the snow track appears to be very tightly defined. If the models are tucking their tails regarding those big snowfall amounts I'm really hoping that this isn't an indication of enhanced WAA and freezing rain. Then again what would an Oklahoma winter be without another Arbuckles Ice Storm™.

Tim

 

[Kevin Rolfs]

The latest GFS really backs the snow way off for OKC. Down to 3 to 5 inches for the metro. Very odd...

Yeah I noticed that too, it's hard to believe that the GFS/NAM are still significantly different with respect to snowfall amounts/location. From what I've seen, the NAM has had more backing from various computer models for a few days now. Looking at the HRRR, which is just now coming into range, a heavy swath of precip looks to develop in N. TX and S. OK around midnight and move northeast across Central/Eastern Oklahoma during the morning hours. This seems to agree with what many runs of the NAM have been showing as well as with several WRF's and the lastest runs of the SREF. So basically, I'm thinking and hoping the GFS is out to lunch *like usual* and that the OKC metro won't get skimped on snow.

 

[Robert Dewey]

18Z NAM continues to play around with QPF up here on the north end of the storm in lower MI. The 12z run had dropped 60-hour QPF down to around 0.8 inches, but the 18z has pushed the 1.25 inch mark further north again. GFS has actually remained rather consistent. This still yields a 10-15 inch snowfall using, and that's being skeptical. The models also seem to be holding on to the system strength just a little bit longer, rather than shearing out the upper level energy, which is a trend I like. Not much has changed in regard to the wind field from run-to-run.

Another short-term trend I'm noticing is the precip in central IL. That was predicted to pass largely to the south of MI tonight, but the models have bumped it further north... with each successive run of the HRRR continuing the trend. This lays down roughly 2-3 inches from Pontiac southward, with 5-6 inches just south of the border on the HRRR. Will be interesting to watch.