Todd Friskey
EF1
I wonder what the NWS/SGF office is waiting on, maybe more data? The other WFO's nearly surrounding the SGF's CWA all have issued Winter Storm Warnings now.
2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM
- Thread starter DWest
- Start date
rdale
EF5
They issued warnings too - I'd check your data source?
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS NORTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO EMINENCE LINE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO EMINENCE LINE.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
Todd Friskey
EF1
rdale..I trust what you are saying...Weird... I cleared my cache and cookies and refreshed my Firefox browser and the SGF CWA is still the blue for Winter Storm Watch not the pink I was looking for.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/
Last edited by a moderator:
rdale
EF5
That may not be mapped out yet, but no worry - the warnings are here.
Chris Carter
EF3
Sounds like most locations are going to upgrade to a blizzard warning once the snow starts. TOP, EAX, and OAX have considered this.
Todd Friskey
EF1
rdale...Were in the pink now...LOL.
Trey Thee
EF2
Seems likely I agree...
I'm also wondering if perhaps Tulsa and/or OKC could see a blizzard warning. I'm thinking the models are undervaluing the surface winds a bit.
The new GFS now has the one foot snow line pretty much right in my area. Whether or not we get a foot is irrelevant, this is shaping up to be at least a 6 inch plus event at this point for the Tulsa metro, if not more. If we get much more than that, transportation routes will be dead locked. OKC also showing a significant event now. I realize 6, 8 or 10 inches of snow isn't much for a lot of folks, but much more than 6, especially as you approach 8, 10 and 12 inches and our cities in Oklahoma have a very difficult time dealing with it.
Randall Marable
EF1
Interesting, OUN has just issued a PDS Winter Storm Warning for parts of it's CWA...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ025&warncounty=OKC109&firewxzone=OKZ025&local_place1=Bethany+OK&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ025&warncounty=OKC109&firewxzone=OKZ025&local_place1=Bethany+OK&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning
Trey Thee
EF2
ohsnap
PDS for winter weather is fairly rare for us. This is going to get interesting.
Robert Dewey
EF5
18z NAM + GFS continue to be in agreement with snow amounts here north and west of Detroit. BUFKIT snow accumulation algorithm continuing to show 16-20 inches (old method shows upwards of 24-25 inches). I'm also seeing 30-40knts well within the mixing layer, with 45-50knts at the very top. With the main system snowfall still 60-66 hours out, my excitement is a bit tempered, as there are plenty of things that could go wrong, including but not limited to dry slotting, ptype issues, etc.
The probability of exceeding 15 inches, per DTX's developmental snowfall product is around 30%... which is quite high;
The probability of exceeding 15 inches, per DTX's developmental snowfall product is around 30%... which is quite high;
John Vandehei
EF2
It's been kind of a boring winter here in southern MI. We've gotten our share of snow, but it's been usually served up an inch at a time (except in the favored lake effect areas). I actually use the push broom to clear the driveway, not the shovel. Looks like that is going to change. I tend to curb my excitement when storms like this are predicted, because I've seen it happen so many times where the ingredients don't come together as predicted by the models, or the storms tracks 100 miles left or right of the forecasted path. However, after seeing such run to run consistency with the models, this is certainly looking as close to a sure thing as you can get. Even though the models show the low weakening somewhat as it moves through Ohio, it still looks south southern MI could still pick up a foot of snow or more. Good thing I just got the AWD fixed on my Subaru.
Robert Dewey
EF5
That's actually one thing I don't like about this system. I also don't like how much energy is being "left behind" - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_066m.gif
With everything being highly dependent on the upper levels, and seeing a map as disorganized as that, it does decrease my confidence some.
ScottKoenig
EF0
Trey Thee
EF2
Those graphics are always weird to me, at least a 40% chance of 4 inches for OKC and Tulsa...yet the forecasts are now calling for 6 to 10 inches...The Kansas City metro area might see 12 inches of snow from this system, but the real issue may be the freezing rain in the St. Louis area and eastward. I'm ready for spring and a few isolated Supercells.
Patrick Marsh
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2006
- Messages
- 783
HPC issues the products responsible for the figures above. Snowfall amounts are forecast by the local offices.
(Also, notice that there is also a 10% chance of greater than 8".)
(Also, notice that there is also a 10% chance of greater than 8".)
