2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[Robert Dewey]

I took a look at winds earlier - I don't see much potential, at least according to the forecasted pressure gradients, for anything over 35 mph - there is the pretty good chance of having over 20kts for many areas, but alas that doesn't meet blizzard criteria requirements.

NAM has 20-30knt sustained at 0z WED across most of MO and IL. That high pressure is quite strong, with a 60mb gradient between it and the low. That's actually stronger than the gradient associated with the Minnesota superbomb earlier this fall (http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/1010/10102612.gif) @ 963mb.

 

[DWest]

NAM has 20-30knt sustained at 0z WED across most of MO and IL. That high pressure is quite strong, with a 60mb gradient between it and the low. That's actually stronger than the gradient associated with the Minnesota superbomb earlier this fall (http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/1010/10102612.gif) @ 963mb.

Very interesting, thanks for pointing it out. As may be evident by this point I've been paying attention to the GFS a bit too much instead of some of the other models.

Yea, that's from Barker's.

Thanks, will have to take a closer look at the products, must have missed some of them!

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'd like to order the 18z GFS with a side of wind. INSANE precipitation amounts. I wouldn't have noticed it, but the news tipped me off with their HUGE areal coverage of 24+ inches splashed from MO through MI.

 

[Joel Wright]

Yeah this is shaping up to be a hell of a storm for the central US. By far the best SW flow system of the season so far. The endless parade of clipper-type systems was somewhat entertaining, but this is the type of storm that can really deliver the goods.

The GOM will be transporting moisture northward well in advance of this storm. WAA looks very impressive. The baroclinic zone at 850mb is just SICK! The Euro has been pretty consistent in laying down a wide swath of very heavy snows from OK to southern MI. The NCEP models are just now starting to catch up to what the Euro has been advertising for days. The 12z NAM looked especially impressive with surface cyclogenesis. Some further corrections towards an even stronger solution is certainly possible given the strength of the baroclinic zone and amazing mid-upper coupled jet structure.

It looks like a relatively wide swath of 12-18"+ snows will be quite likely from central MO, through central IL, the northern 1/3 of IN, and into southern lower MI. Unfortunately there will also likely be a zone of significant icing just south of the snow swath.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Just pulled up the GFS on BUFKIT for kicks (for DTX sites). It shows 2-3 inches MON night into TUE, with snow picking up again TUE evening dropping another 19-20 inches. Winds are quite gusty as well, with 45-55knts at the top of the mixing layer just after the heaviest snowfall. If I was shopping for a snowstorm, I'd definitely take a loan out for the GFS. Hopefully it comes to fruition.

 

[Chris Carter]

Well this storm looks to stay south of the northern plains, places like Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas eastward will get the big snows. I think I will end up getting around 4" in Omaha with wind and cold.

 

[Jesse Risley]

The 12z ECMWF is indicating a corridor of heavier QPF (1.75" - 2.00") from just SE of KC extending ENE into NE MO - WC and NC IL and NW IN. Much of that area should remain as SN unless the track deviates even more, which isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Embedded in that corridor of QPF maxima are a few isolated pockets of QPF progged > 2.00". That entire region looks to be encapsulated within a 50 - 100 mb (depth) median dendritic growth zone with corresponding SLER of 13:1 to 17:1 per the ensemble blends. It still looks like a decent shot of ZR/IP looks to be setting up for areas of E/SE KS, into MO, extending roughly from I-70 (perhaps even further S towards I-44?) to US 36/I-72 based only on today's runs; that will probably change to some extent.

 

[Danny Neal]

A picture is worth a million words. Usually I toss out the 18z GFS runs since they are normally pretty wacky, but seeing this is hard to ignore!

 

[DWest]

I'd like to order the 18z GFS with a side of wind. INSANE precipitation amounts. I wouldn't have noticed it, but the news tipped me off with their HUGE areal coverage of 24+ inches splashed from MO through MI.

The GFS has posted a consistently large amount of QPF for my locale the entire time - 2+" inches of QPF is absolutely insane, no matter how it translates. Heavy icing with a ton of snow on top? Well, maybe I won't have classes, although I hope I still have power after.

 

[jshields]

Well this storm looks to stay south of the northern plains, places like Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas eastward will get the big snows. I think I will end up getting around 4" in Omaha with wind and cold.

yeah at one point Chris the Euro about a day and a half ago had us(Omaha) in almost 2" of qpf with 40-50 kt 850 mb winds, but alas the storm has shifted to the south. i'm hoping we can sneak out 6" since snow ratios will be so high. definitely a disappointment now coming from where it was just a little while ago

 

[DWest]

It's pretty exciting reading some of the descriptions various weather offices are putting out - St. Louis updated their AFD when they issued their CWA's watch, and had an interesting tidbit comparing this storm to the blizzard of '82 and the ice storm from 2006. 00z NAM continues to advertise extremely heavy precip as well...

SLU ANALOGS COMPARE THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM TO THE 1982 SNOW
STORM THAT MANY REMEMBER IN ST. LOUIS AS THE BLIZZARD OF 82...AND
THE JANUARY 30 2006 ICE AND SNOW EVENT THAT LEFT NEARLY 500000
PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER FOR DAYS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

 

[Andrew Francis]

I am not liking the models showing the storm get its act together AFTER it passes through OK. It looks like it really evolves exiting OK and entering MO. That is when the HEAVY precip pours down.

NWS has now thrown out WSW for NE OK, most of MO, and SE KS.


I am really hoping the system will anchor down more when it comes into TX/OK and churn up some nice snow bands before racing NE. Anxiously waiting for tonight's runs!

 

[Mike Smith]

I think it is going to be the 6pm Sunday model run before we can pin this down.

 

[Mark Sefried]

All I can saw is *WOW*. It's rare to see all the models locked onto a significant snow event several days out. This system has the potential to have a large swath of heavy snow over the Southeastern Midwest. South central MO Northeastward into SE lower MI should easily see 12-15 inches with local amounts near 16-18. This storm reminds me of what occurred on Jan 1-2 1999. The Peoria area ended up with close to 14 inches of snow and everything was shut down for 2 days. As of now based upon the what I am seeing model wise it appears that I may end up in the 10-12 range with the heaviest band a little SE of me. I hope the models continue to show this, however once the system gets onshore and gets sampled good then we will get a much better idea about its strength and track. If the storm tracks even further SE and I end up close to 6 inches, throw in wind gusts approaching 40 mph and it will still be fun.

 

[Trey Thee]

This is looking like it could be a major event for the Tulsa area. As of now the NAM is being quite a bit more aggressive with the snow for the entire Tulsa area but the GFS is also showing 4 to 6, maybe 8 inches in northern Tulsa suburbs. Bartlesville could get 10+...I'd like to see if they remain consistent as we get the new runs throughout the day. If we get 8+ inches of snow I won't be able to get my car out, I'll have to ride with my wife to work.

The most impressive part of this system is the pretty large area of heavy precip that the models have consistently showed for a few days now. Could be an epic snow for parts of Illinois, Michigan and Northern Indiana/Ohio.