2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

Trey Thee said:
This is looking like it could be a major event for the Tulsa area. As of now the NAM is being quite a bit more aggressive with the snow for the entire Tulsa area but the GFS is also showing 4 to 6, maybe 8 inches in northern Tulsa suburbs. Bartlesville could get 10+...I'd like to see if they remain consistent as we get the new runs throughout the day. If we get 8+ inches of snow I won't be able to get my car out, I'll have to ride with my wife to work.

The most impressive part of this system is the pretty large area of heavy precip that the models have consistently showed for a few days now. Could be an epic snow for parts of Illinois, Michigan and Northern Indiana/Ohio.
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The GFS seems to still be reluctant to bring the heaviest snows that far southwest - while I'm all for the NAM's solution which brings a bit more widespread snow and *slightly* lighter totals for some areas, not sure which model is going to end up on top here. Will be interesting to see what happens once it's sampled later today.
 
This morning's model runs are trending a bit further N (at least for the mid-Mississippi River valley and points ENE) with the SFC low than last night's 00z suite, especially the GFS. Based on the current location of the system, I would agree that it probably isn't fully sampled by RAOBs. The H85 profiles an both the 12z GFS and the 12z NAM are very impressive. The ECMWF backed down on the QPF amounts across the mid-Mississippi River valley, and the HPCs progged 3-day QPF profiles are more conservative as well (1.50" to 1.70"), which places them closer to the ECMWF than some of the other models which keep showing 2"+ across the region.
 
DWest said:
The GFS seems to still be reluctant to bring the heaviest snows that far southwest - while I'm all for the NAM's solution which brings a bit more widespread snow and *slightly* lighter totals for some areas, not sure which model is going to end up on top here. Will be interesting to see what happens once it's sampled later today.
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The GFS is definitely a bit reluctant to move the system south. The large discrepancy between the two models is a bit curious this close to the event. We'll see if things start to tighten up this afternoon/evening. The 12z GFS pushed it another 35 or 40 miles North. Still snow for the Tulsa metro but it ranges from about two inches to about five or so inches in the northern suburbs (owasso/collinsville).

Yes i agree once its sampled it will be interesting to see what happens.
 
Looks like models have shifted things a tad further NW than last nigts run. Puts me smack dab in the heaviest snowband of close to 12-15 inches or so with locally 16-18 inches. Chicago looks to absolutley get creamed with this storm with some lake enhancement snow ontop of the system snow. Chicago may be flirting with thier all time snowstorm total if the trend continues :D
 
Robert Dewey said:
LOT just posted a blizzard watch. Quite strong wording, indicating up to 3 inches per hour at times with 45mph winds... and total accumulations over 18 inches, possibly exceeding 24 inches. NAM, GFS, and GEM support this.
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Strong wording in MKX's most recent AFD update too. Looks like southeast corner of WI will also face a blizzard watch based on the zones listed in the AFD (I don't think the maps have updated yet) with some comparisons to the blizzard of January 1999.

My question is how will the Monday night snowfall impact things for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Very complicated situation unfolding.
 
The 12z ECMWF has now shifted the low a bit NNW of previous runs, and it's also showing a deeper low than before. It's interesting to see much better model consensus, as that hasn't always been the case this winter. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more slight track deviations. It would appear that the system wasn't fully sampled on this morning's 12z runs. The behavior of the arctic high across the far N Plains has been something to watch in relation to where the baroclinic zone falls.

110130183811.gif
 
Robert Dewey said:
I think they're going to need to add a whole lot of states to the title. Might be easier to say "PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES."
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And the good thing is you will still get snow in Texas regardless of whether or not TX is in the title of this thread ;)
 
OAX raised our snow totals to 8", which would place us in the wsw criteria rather than a wwa. Since the euro is pushing the storm more to the north and west, that would explain the raised snow amounts. I'm wondering if the mix at 26 degrees tomorrow will cut down on that.
 
Trey Thee said:
Still has tulsa at 12+ and OKC getting absolutely hammered.

New GFS should start rolling in within the next hour or two.
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Let's just hope that now with the storm sampled, we can have some model consensus; hopefully the GFS gets more in line with the NAM, as I like the NAM's solution better. My area still has respectable precipitation totals (1.5-1.75"), but I'm not nearly as confident as I was a day ago about what exactly it's going to fall as. Seems like there could be at least minor accumulations of ice or sleet to start off with, which really throws a wrench in the snow totals.
 
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mod...221_2011013018_F63_WSPD_10_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

This is just getting insane. I keep expecting to be let down with each sequential model run, but they just keep getting even more ridiculous. You could cut the expected results of this storm in half now and I'd still be excited. Those sustained surface winds in northern Illinois along with a period of up to 6 hours of 3"/hour snowfall rates likely with embedded thundersnow. I'm not normally a big winter weather fanatic, but when I tell mother nature in the winter to either go big or go home, this is certainly along the lines of what I was thinking. I don't think I'll sleep Tuesday night at this point.
 
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Well I am officially growing more excited as it looks like OKC is finding itself into the 'money band'. This could be a huge snowstorm from SW OK all the way to MI with 12+ inches over a huge area between.


Can you imagine something like this verifying? Or even half the amounts verifying?

2011storm.jpg
 
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