12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OK- Snow


Per Norman Discussion: THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM NOW UNFOLDING HAS BEHAVED LIKE A GIFT WRAPPED IN MULTIPLE BOXES...IT IS FULL OF SURPRISES.

Now time to look at radar trends.

SW/OK is expanding intensity and coverage with some 45dbz echoes.

Based on radar trends and snow rate software areas of expanded 1-2" per hour snow rates cover the area from NW/TX-SW/WC-OK.

With the recent reports from OK mesonet data winds sustained at 30 with gust to 59 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE HOBART 34.99N 99.04W
12/24/2009 M59 MPH KIOWA OK ASOS

Parts of OKLA will likely be upgraded to Blizzard warning.


One interesting note from the 6Z Nam has snow totals for parts SW & SE OK with over 20" of snow.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_24HR.gif

UPDATE 8:40 Storms with lighting NW of SPS moderate snow in the area developing.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Trees are A-Crackling!!

I stepped out on my front porch early this Thursday a.m. in Lincoln NE. We got about 1/4" ice on our trees yesterday. Then we had less than 1 inch of snow on the ground that fell overnight. That's the good news. The bad news is that we could expect snow in the next 12-24 hours and we could get as much as 12 inches!!

What was interesting was the winds was starting to pick up from the N/NW. And I heard a rather intense series of sounds like logs crackling on a fireplace. But what I really heard was the ice cracking on the tree branches in my front yard as the winds picked up. There were a few small branches down in my neighborhood when I left for work.

Since my employment is related to the State of Nebraska government, I will be getting off work at noon today. Hopefully I will be at home, safe and sound, with my wife and three dogs during the blizzard to come!!

 

[Lance Maxwell]

12z NAM is out and WOW for OKC! The new track basically puts C OK right in the bullseye of 12-16". Incredible stuff. I have never seen a storm be so poorly handled by the models.

 

[Phillip Aubin]

So yeah- my house is buried. With 12" more to come. Plan on traveling 64 miles today. Wish me luck........

 

[Jason Haller]

12z NAM is out and WOW for OKC! The new track basically puts C OK right in the bullseye of 12-16". Incredible stuff. I have never seen a storm be so poorly handled by the models.

Also puts my neck of the wood back into the fire. I truly don't know what to believe now. Dartboard forecasting on this one.

 

[Chris Sokol]

OK...just changed the OKC Metro from a WSW to a Blizzard Warning, according to Lincoln County Comm Center. Hopefully more details will come out soon.

***EDIT*** Here is some of the data:

KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING. THIS
REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

First time I've ever seen a Blizzard Warning issued in Norman.

 

[rdale]

It'll be interesting to see if it verifies - looks like so far the winds are there but the precip is too light.

 

[Angie Norris]

Yep, we've currently got a light sleet/snow mix (predominately sleet) in south Norman with enough sleet accumulation to cover the ground. Winds are sustained in the 30mph range with gusts as high as 47mph. Nothing that impressive so far, so it's just going to be a wait and see situation.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Blowing light, sometimes moderate snow in Edmond. This is exactly how I hoped the precip shield would move across OK. It looks like it will be snowing in Central OK for most of the day.

The heaviest precip looks to be in south and southwest OK still, slowly inching northwward.



I would imagine SW OK already has probably 6 inches of snow and its still falling, they look like the winners right now unless this storm slows down and just unloads as it progs north.

 

[Jason Bolt]

And Traveler's Advisories were killed by the NWS over a decade ago...

And just today, TWC replaced the old TA with the NTA. They said all of South Dakota is now under a No Travelers Advisory. Also it is only going to snow today in Minnesota and South Dakota. Stay tuned for further updates on gardening and how to make margaritas with our live on scene reporter in Key West.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html

Some reading this might find that useful, predicted radar loop from 6 a.m. this morning just through 6 p.m. Friday. Via WRF-NMM. At least for a sense of storm evolution and time.

Ice covered trees outside are swaying unlike I've ever seen. The taller sort of skinny ones especially. With the weight they go further but slower than they would on an extremely windy day with leaves on there and no ice...while not being extremely windy yet. Many look like they are at the verge of the breaking point half way down the trunk before going back the other direction about just as far. It's wild with them all doing this in varying directions behind one another. Only ice popping off them seems to be where the trunk is bending, not the smaller branches making up all the weight. This in a pretty sheltered area too where any wind is just skimming the tops of them. Gust to 50 would probably put many over the edge. Been trying to get some good video of this, but the gusts of wind are still rather sporadic. It's rather intimidating going into those trees much at all to do this. Splat!

Edit:

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif

If I added them right I think the off scale totals at least right around Omaha on that are about 27 inches(yeah yeah it's a model).

 

[rdale]

Just grab the TIV or Dominator and go film it...

 

[John Farley]

Looks like the NAM, GFS, and RUC are all now taking the low a little west of STL overnight tonight, then pretty much due north or a little northwest. This is a slightly more westerly track than last nights NAM and GFS runs. This morning's AFD from the NWS in St. Louis talks about the possibility of further eastward shifts in the forecast tracks, but the new model runs don't support that. Accordingly, I think the NAM snowfall map Lance posted paints the right general picture, though local specifics will vary. Note the sharp gradient in predicted snow accumulations along the eastern edge of the snow area, all the way from northwestern AR up through the middle of IA. 50 miles east or west in location will make a huge difference in snow accumulations as, of course, could any even modest deviation from the predicted track. However, the models do finally seem to be painting a more consistent picture, at least from model to model if not totally from run to run.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Almost zero precip falling here in N. OKC in the Edmond area.

This storm is very strange, the heavy precip just isn't there - specifically the snow. Looks like the only heavy stuff is on the south end of the wrap-around.

I am pretty sure the low is going to keep tracking eastward before it heads north, which will increase southern OK's chances of heavy snow while us here in the central part of OK will be hit with the west-side of the wrap around and it will be over, except for the wind.

Crossing my fingers that the low begins shifting north ASAP and then slows down and keep us in that window for heavy wrap-around in C OK. lol

I would say there is about an inch of sleet/snow compounded on the grass and roads here in Edmond right now.



EDIT: picked up right after posting, moderate sleet with light snow starting up.