12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Joel Wright]

It's obviously a bit early, but some computer models such as the GFS and ECMWF have advertised a fairly potent storm around the middle of next week. With plenty of gulf moisture available, and another arctic surge leaking down from Canada there certainly could be a pretty big snowstorm somewhere in the Midwest next week.

Over the past few runs the GFS has indicated a foot of snow or more is possible in the heaviest band from Missouri to the UP of Michigan.

Still about a week away, but since the holidays are coming and this storm could make for some serious travel difficulties I figured it's time to get the ball rolling on some discussion about it.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, it's looking like a possibility here in the TX panhandle also. I hope it verifies, because I want a white Christmas darn it!!!!

 

[Elinor McLennon]

So far, the odds are not too good for OKC having a white Christmas. I hope that storm takes a more southerly track.

 

[Karla Dorman]

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the ones I used to know ......

Haven't seen one in 26 years. Would love to see one.

Our local NOAA wx office is saying things 'could get very interesting' if the GFS verifies. Plenty of cold air, possibility of precip ... yeah. Bring it, Santa! LOL

 

[Adam Lucio]

Speaking in terms of location and the 12z goofus...the last one was too far north and this one looks to go too far south. Either way there may be something cooking that will make holiday travel extremely difficult. 2009s merciless-ness continues.

QPF output is pretty high in the cold sector. Gonna be interesting. I haven't looked at much more though.

 

[Andrew Francis]

So far, the odds are not too good for OKC having a white Christmas. I hope that storm takes a more southerly track.

I wouldn't count us out, just yet!

It has been very cold and very dry here, we are due in for one!

 

[Bonnie Frank]

So if you guys had to ballpark it, this far out, where are you thinking there could be travel problems and on what days? I only ask because Im probably going to have to travel across the state along I-70 on Tuesday.

 

[rdale]

No way to even guess at this point.

 

[Joel Wright]

Yeah the models have been pretty erratic with the track and strength of the storm so far. For example the latest operational GFS gives much of the Midwest a good dose of rain and warmer temperatures before a switch to heavy snow by Christmas Eve. Other operational runs by the GFS showed far less warm air on the front side of the storm.

IMO the GGEM model has handled the major winter storms the best so far this season. I'll be leaning towards whatever it forecasts over the next several days. It's still a bit far out even for that model right now though.

Even though models are all over the place with this storm, they all seem to be keying in on the potential of something fairly significant next week right before Christmas. Even the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley areas should be watching this since it's conceivable that there could be some snow down there.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

As noted, the model spread is quite high for the 12/24-25 storm, though that's not unexpected given that we're 7-8 days out. As a reminder, one can access the NCEP ensemble spaghetti plots at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ensframe.html , and the NCEP/EMC cyclone tracks page can be accessed at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ (the "multi-model" graphics display the cyclone tracks for several models, but you can also look at the tracks for all of the ensemble members, etc.). Both of these links are useful since they can give you an idea of (a) uncertainty in the forecast and (b) how well the forecasts from the operational model(s) compare to the ensemble runs. In this particular case, it looks like the operational GFS (what most of us see when we look at GFS model data on CoD, TwisterData, Hoot.ou.edu, RAP/UCAR, etc.) is more amplified and generally "wetter" than many of the ensemble members. Usuall, the ensemble mean tends to be more "conservative" (e.g. often less amplitude, drier, etc) than any specific member (including the operational run), but this is something recognize and account for when assessing the multitude of models available. Regardless, I agree that there's the potential for a significant winter storm somewhere from the southern Plains / northwestern Gulf coast north-northeastward to the central/eastern Great Lakes (+/- 600 miles).

 

[B Jensen]

Chicago isn't too enthused with the run.

HEADING INTO EXTENDED RANGE...GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR SHIFT IN
SCENARIO WITH MID WEEK WX SYS. GFS NOW BRINGS DEEPENING LOW NWD
ACROSS IL WED NIGHT-THURSDAY SUGGESTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR
MOST OF FA. 00Z EUROPEAN HAS COME IN FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION AS WHAT WE HAD THE FIRST WEEK OF
THIS MONTH. THEREFORE...RATHER THAN RIDE COLDER SNOWY FCST INTO
THE GROUND...HAVE BEGUN TO TREND AS WARM WITH THIS SYS AS GRID
TOLERANCE WILL ALLOW. HOPE NO ONE GOT THEIR KIDS SLEDS FOR
CHRISTMAS UNLESS THEY CAN BE ADAPTED FOR USE IN MUD.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Seems the trend this year is for the sfc low to track through ne KS and into southern IA, last system and an October one. Think another one did this same similar location. 6z GFS trended towards the 0z ECMWF and simply looks nasty for us again.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_500_spd_144.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/OFFHOUR/gfsUS_500_spd_138.gif

Pretty big agreement there. Seems to be the favored track this year and could see it happening again. That run of the GFS hangs the sfc low in southern IA for a bit again, this time as a 1046 high tries to build south behind it. After taking the sfc low to 989 over KC.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/OFFHOUR/gfsUS_850_spd_150.gif

Won't be a fun travel day on I80 in NE if this happens like it now shows. Too bad it's not a bit closer and more likely to happen like that. That said, it is nice to see it close to the trusty ECMWF.

 

[Chris Heater]

Another panhandle hooker? hoping for a white Christmas but this is pretty far out. Im sure it will change a million times before it hits. Lets just hope most of us can get some snow out of this

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Looks like 12z gfs went a bit quicker and south than 6z had. Seems it has a tendency to be too quick/progressive.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data...th@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Canadian takes it through the same route they've all been going this year and isn't overly north of the 0z ecmwf. 12z ecmwf is a bit hard to follow with the 24hr gaps and what it is apparently doing. Seems like it must have given more strength to the wave behind the lead main one, but still phases them into a beast. Yeah that is hard to follow with big gaps and 2 panels, but still....

850mb Christmas Morning

Tis the season.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDDC/0912180859.fxus63.html

Umscheid had a nice forecast discussion this morning for the central plains region. It's fun to bounce around the offices and note which ones bother writing much and which ones do not. Umscheid and Bookbinder put out some good ones.

 

[mikegeukes]

Latest ECMWF
144 hr ECMWF Surface Pressure Map
168 hr ECMWF Surface Pressure Map

More ECMWF Maps can be found here:
http://models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/

Mike
Supercell Weather
http://supercellweather.blogspot.com