rdale
EF5
Not sure what that adds to the discussion - but the HWO from Green Bay does mention severe...
Not sure what that adds to the discussion - but the HWO from Green Bay does mention severe...
http://www.geocities.com/ilxwx/oct29outlook.jpg
Made my own little graphical thing since I suck at explaining things. Thats my take on tomorrow so far this evening. The black...would be the equivalent of a slight risk...for just a general severe threat. The red area highlights my favorable area for supercells and tornadoes, with a hatched basically just being the highest threat area for tornadoes.
Things should get going decently early in the afternoon, right on the western edge of my hatched area. A good cluster of supercells is pretty likely, producing a few tornadoes. Further south, outside the hatched area, shear and cape are still pretty good down into Illinois, but a trigger is more of a question. Isolated storms are still possible though, and with the expected shear...moisture, anything that does go should be supercellular.
Then, later in the evening and overnite I think a squall line should develop along the front...this would threaten the areas outlined in black.
Just my take now, as things are becoming more clear now that its only a day away. I still wont be able to leave until 2 or 3 pm...so i cant go much outside central Illinois...If i could, I would target somewhere along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border...also near LaCrosse, as I heard someone mention earlier. But...as stated, ill just play the area further south, and hope I get lucky.