Robert Dewey
EF5
Decided to move this to an appropriate FCST thread...
Just wanted to start a thread for the midwest this Wednesday. The latest 12Z NAM is painting a pretty good tornado threat across WI. A strong shortwave pushing east, combined with moisture pooling at the SFC (and CAPES AOA 4000J/KG), in addition to helicity values in excess of 450m2/s2 would lead me to believe a pretty significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is quite probable. The entire column has excellent rotation - winds at the SFC are from the SE, veering to the south at 850mb, then strongly veering to the west-northwest at 500mb at 60knts. In addition, given the moisture pooling, LCL's will be quite low, so it would be easy for a storm to produce a tornado.
Just wanted to start a thread for the midwest this Wednesday. The latest 12Z NAM is painting a pretty good tornado threat across WI. A strong shortwave pushing east, combined with moisture pooling at the SFC (and CAPES AOA 4000J/KG), in addition to helicity values in excess of 450m2/s2 would lead me to believe a pretty significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is quite probable. The entire column has excellent rotation - winds at the SFC are from the SE, veering to the south at 850mb, then strongly veering to the west-northwest at 500mb at 60knts. In addition, given the moisture pooling, LCL's will be quite low, so it would be easy for a storm to produce a tornado.