Blake Naftel
EF3
Trends and model signals are alluding to potentially another warm frontal boundary-style setup for a discrete supercell thunderstorm mode on an arching boundary for portions of Northern Indiana and into the very southern tier of L. Michigan south of I-94 by late PM into early Sunday evening. 06z GFS squashes this idea and keeps the WF boundary, ample moisture, theta-e and MUCAPE's [that exceed 3000 J/kg] well south in around I-70. There certainly has been more model-to-model consistency with that forecast lean. More geospatial alignment [for potential SVR] between ECMWF and NAM 3KM this morning along with ample mid/upper level support [diffluent split evident at h500] hint at a tornado day somewhere in the "northern" zone [N. Indiana/Michiana/SWL. MI]. Obviously the deeper moisture, CAPEs, wind fields and assorted parameters are quite ample for a PM severe/tornado event in S. IL into C. IN and N. KY, already well advertised by the SWODY3.
I would prefer not to have another strong/significant tornado event close to, if not a top the home front... yet this pattern, inbound energy and timing are too eerily similar. Will watch how this actually evolves and expand further as Sunday approaches.
P.S. I just saw another thread was already started on this day/event. Jeff, or moderators, feel free to delete this extra one.
I would prefer not to have another strong/significant tornado event close to, if not a top the home front... yet this pattern, inbound energy and timing are too eerily similar. Will watch how this actually evolves and expand further as Sunday approaches.
P.S. I just saw another thread was already started on this day/event. Jeff, or moderators, feel free to delete this extra one.
