Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target for today, October 18
Chase target: 30 mi south-east of Jefferson City, Mo.
Timing: 5 PM CDT.
Severe mode: isolated supercells with hail to golf ball size, and isolated tornadoes.
At 15Z, surface low pressure was located between ICT and CNU, with a warm front extending eastward along an AIZ-FAM line. This front will lift slowly northward during the day and will lie along I-70 by 00Z. To the south of this front, significant moisture return was underway, as evidenced by surface dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60’s, and 850 MB Td’s near 60F.
A 250 MB, 90 KT jet had moved into SRN AZ and SRN NM last night. In response to this, significant divergence in the left front quadrant of the jet was lifting into the forecast area this morning. An 850 MB jet of 50 KTS was also nosing into this area, resulting in a large area of elevated convection in ERN MO at this time. A negating factor today is the phasing of the shortwave energy, which will be lifting to the east of the target area by 00Z. Model guidance (RUC, UKMET, ETA, and GFS) are similar with handling of surface features, LLJ, and upper jet; as well as instability and lapse rates today. Clearing has taken place over SWRN MO, and decent destabilization will take place. A triple point at the warm front - weak dryline/trough line just east of the low should provide the focus for renewed convection in the 21Z-22Z timeline. An instability bullseye in ERN MO will exist by 20Z, with MLCAPE’s in excess of 2000 J/kG. Additionally, 0-3 km SRH’s around 200 m^2/s^2 will result from SRLY surface and veering SWRLY 850 MB winds.
bill schintler
Chase target: 30 mi south-east of Jefferson City, Mo.
Timing: 5 PM CDT.
Severe mode: isolated supercells with hail to golf ball size, and isolated tornadoes.
At 15Z, surface low pressure was located between ICT and CNU, with a warm front extending eastward along an AIZ-FAM line. This front will lift slowly northward during the day and will lie along I-70 by 00Z. To the south of this front, significant moisture return was underway, as evidenced by surface dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60’s, and 850 MB Td’s near 60F.
A 250 MB, 90 KT jet had moved into SRN AZ and SRN NM last night. In response to this, significant divergence in the left front quadrant of the jet was lifting into the forecast area this morning. An 850 MB jet of 50 KTS was also nosing into this area, resulting in a large area of elevated convection in ERN MO at this time. A negating factor today is the phasing of the shortwave energy, which will be lifting to the east of the target area by 00Z. Model guidance (RUC, UKMET, ETA, and GFS) are similar with handling of surface features, LLJ, and upper jet; as well as instability and lapse rates today. Clearing has taken place over SWRN MO, and decent destabilization will take place. A triple point at the warm front - weak dryline/trough line just east of the low should provide the focus for renewed convection in the 21Z-22Z timeline. An instability bullseye in ERN MO will exist by 20Z, with MLCAPE’s in excess of 2000 J/kG. Additionally, 0-3 km SRH’s around 200 m^2/s^2 will result from SRLY surface and veering SWRLY 850 MB winds.
bill schintler
