I don't think I'd take the CPC's words too literally... Afterall, they are focused more on synoptic scale, medium to long-term forecasts. Yes, there is some collaboration between the SPC and the CPC when it comes to the mentioning of severe weather in the CPC Hazards outlook, but I wouldn't read into it too much... Not to mention, why not make our own forecasts? Afterall, it's only one take on the situation. In the end, the CPC isn't spending too much time or energy trying to forecast the severe weather this far out, as they're busy looking at temperature/precip trends for 5-10-30-60-90 days out.
Personally, I see some things to like, and others not to like. It seems, per the ETA, that we won't have that subtropical moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific that we had this past weekend. That means that we probably won't end up with the warm conveyor belt and shouldn't have a completely cloudy warm-sector. That said, the ETA didn't handle the past system very well at all, so this should all be taken with a grain of salt. I'm assuming this will turn into a late Thurs/Fri/Sat event given the too-fast bias of the models in these situations. If the trough digs more than progged, it'll probably start to tap into some subtropical moisture and we'll end up with widespread cloudcover as we had with this previous system. Thursday looks pretty good for tornadic storms, given strong shear profiles and decent instability (1500-2000) throughout KS. That said, again, the ETA is hanging the trough/vort max in the west longer and thus this will probably turn out to be a Friday event for the plains. But alas, that's left to another thread.
all the locals and the WChannel , is mentiong clouds all over agin this looks to paly out liek the last system did... i prb will avoid getting to worked up with this system... all it takes is SEVERE WEATHER or OUTBREAK to get everyone riled up...
