3/29/05 FCST : Plains

[Tony Laubach]

The Dewpoints across northern Oklahoma are making me wonder... I glanced over Dupage and saw the models still keeping Dewpoints under 50 in Southern Kansas, but as the 19z SFC obs are showing, Tds in some places are already flirting with 50 if not over it already. Even a 57 in Northern Oklahoma is looking healthy; better than either tthe ETA or RUC have been. Some of those 50s keep climbing northward a bit on the weak SFC winds from the south, you may see SPC jumping a SLIGHT RISK for the area. Some of those winds are crawling out of the southeast a bit, so ya never know. A moisture tounge is evident, and everything else seems alright, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe in the area of Southern Kansas, Northern Oklahoma. I'd be tempted to play the Hwy 160 stretch near Medicine Lodge if you're in the neighborhood and see what happens in the next couple hours.

 

[Philip Flory]

Dewpoints are rising pretty rapidly accross N OK/S KS the last few hours. Latest SFC indicates near 50 td's as far north now as Salina, KS. A quick glance at OK Mesonet indicates upper 50 td's beginning to show up along the Red River, however 60's are still in deep south TX. I feel the RUC has a pretty good handle on evolution of the moisture this evening with 52-54 td's becoming common accross S KS/N OK. As Glen said in a previous post, farther south track of SFC low than expected is encouraging as well.

Main concern for me remains the high amount of CIN and very marginal values of 300-500 J/KG sbcape by initiation. Main question remains if enough moisture can arrive prior to dark to help remove capping inversion and intiate convection by 0z. Shear profiles are very supportive of elevated supercells, and mid-level temps remain supportive of marginally severe hail.

Pratt appears to be a decent starting point for now. SFC moisture should be maximized in this area in the 21-0z time frame.

Im still sitting in ICT watching data.. i'll probably depart by 2:30.

 

[Philip Flory]

Convection is now finally ongoing across Southern KS. A couple svr warnings have been issued by DDC and ICT (earlier) for the convection just west of ICT at 9:30. A few marginal hail reports have been reported per SPC storm reports. Fairly strong/severe storms are also ongoing in western NE.

Dewpoints across the area are now in excess of 52 or so accross S KS with 55-58 in N OK. Had we had an additional 5-10 hours of moisture return earlier today, a much different situation would likely be ongoing right now.. oh well.. it is March!