10-29-04 FCST: Midwest & Plains

A little far out now but -a thread for Wednesday might be in order:

r.e.: CPC US Hazard Assessment
"A widespread outbreak of scattered strong and severe thunderstorms is likely to develop in advance of a strong trough crossing the middle of the country around Oct. 27-29"

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html

GFS showing 60-65 Td's across plains up into Iowa with good 500 mb sw winds and a well developed dryline.

Thursday & Friday also looking potentially good so threads may be needed for these days too.

Jon Miller
 
One thing I like better about this week is that even though, in my area, storms are forcasted pretty much every day this week, the probability is less than 40% up until Thursday, which might mean a better chance for the sun to warm things up.
 
It looks awesome, but maybe we shouldn't hype up the event, lol. I have very high temps forecast for my area all week, possibly mid 70's. That could mean something, but that's all I'll say.
 
We are all going to DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is all I have to say about that. Just kidding, I like it too, even though it has hints of looking like the last system. I don't like the 850 wanting to veer ahead of this one again. Gulf ridge looked to be further east for this one, so that might add some to the hope side. Waiting for now. Bet it's a Friday show though.
 
My current bet is that it will be a wind event, and it will be further east since the trough doesn't look like it will dig nearly as deep as the last one... Perhaps us folks around the Great Lakes region may have something (cough, cough, BUST, LOL)...

Also giving areas further east some hope, is the fact that this storm will actually be deepening as it moves towards Lake Superior, vs. opening up like the last wave did. AND neutrally tilted/slightly positively tilted systems seem to support more severe weather (vs. negatively tilted) over this region for a couple of reasons:

1) If they are negatively tilted, they usually go from CO to ND and weaken OR the front usually looses it's definition/runs out of steam
2) Positively/neutrally tilted troughs allow for a S to SW flows across the Great Lakes region (WI/MI/IN/OH/IL), which typically give better moisture transport from the Gulf, vs. a southeasterly flow, which brings in drier and cooler air...

This is all speculative of course ;)....
 
I hope you're right (except for it's being just a wind event!)--I'd love one last blast before the snows fly. Can't wait to see how things shape up during the course of the week. :)
 
Interesting AFD

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

This is an excerpt from GRB's AFD today. Friday 10/29 would be the last day of CPC's "widespread outbreak". Although it only says "small chance" of severe storms, in my experience it's rare for an NWS office to EVER bring in mention of severe this far out unless something big appears to be in the offing. Even on August 24 this year, when SPC had all of WI in a 25% line on the SWODY3, MKX made no mention of severe in the AFD or HWO. On 8-25, when SPC put all of WI in MDT risk on both Day 2 outlooks, they did not bring in "Severe Tstms" wording on the forecast until the afternoon. Then it busted and everything was out west in IA on 8/26.
 
My Bad

Whoops...that excerpt was from the HWO, not the AFD. Here is the AFD: MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY WITH A STORM SYSTEM PRETTY SIMILAR TO
THE ONE THAT CAME THROUGH YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IS THE GFS IS CORRECT

Well maybe this one will actually DO SOMETHING! Especially if it's not overcast all day.
 
:D WHOEVER STARTED this thread ....... Were Jinxed now, it seems the weather knwos when were on her case" lol




Better see something , i was sick of seeing clouds all day with this last system!


Mike H : got an 8 ball we can get answers from?
 
As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

a severe weather outbreak is likely in the middle of the country when one of the short waves interacts with a deep flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
 
As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

Easy, take a look at the last event :lol:

I sure hope they are right though, because whatever happens out in the Midwest, will likely make it into the Great Lakes, since this low will actually be deepening, whereas the last system was filling in...
 
I really like Friday's chances. As of now anyways...as we all know very well by now...things are going to change over the week. However, as of right now, I really like the way things look over western Illinois and Iowa, down into Missouri and eastern Oklahoma. Only thing I really hope for is that previous period precip doesnt ruin things like last time...and we end up getting enough heating. Instability was a big pain Friday...so, everyone get your fans ready to blow that stupid stratodeck out of here.
 
As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

Easy, take a look at the last event :lol:

I sure hope they are right though, because whatever happens out in the Midwest, will likely make it into the Great Lakes, since this low will actually be deepening, whereas the last system was filling in...

But did the CPC mention outbreak? :wink:
 
I'm not going to hold my breath for Friday cause I know for a fact I can't push my luck with work again. :oops: In any case, may bear watching now since I have stated I'll likely be working during this.. may end up being a game-time decision if it so happens, but I'm not going to keep trotting away Fridays; but it'll be in the back of my head just in case. Especially if things look exciting and that darned cloud deck can move on!
 
I'm gonna try not to get too excited...but its hard when it works out so well this time. I end classes at 11 am this Friday...so I would have plenty of time to mess around with it if it went. Wouldnt need to skip my last classes to get to freaking Iowa for nothing to happen :roll:
 
As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

Easy, take a look at the last event :lol:

I sure hope they are right though, because whatever happens out in the Midwest, will likely make it into the Great Lakes, since this low will actually be deepening, whereas the last system was filling in...

The last event was only mentioned as strong to severe storms. The quote is likely severe weather outbreaks and we all understand the tendency of using certain words in forecast products.. Of course we will have to see what happens but I think the chances are much better than last week.

Better Chances: 4 Hail Reports + 1
 
I don't think I'd take the CPC's words too literally... Afterall, they are focused more on synoptic scale, medium to long-term forecasts. Yes, there is some collaboration between the SPC and the CPC when it comes to the mentioning of severe weather in the CPC Hazards outlook, but I wouldn't read into it too much... Not to mention, why not make our own forecasts? Afterall, it's only one take on the situation. In the end, the CPC isn't spending too much time or energy trying to forecast the severe weather this far out, as they're busy looking at temperature/precip trends for 5-10-30-60-90 days out.

Personally, I see some things to like, and others not to like. It seems, per the ETA, that we won't have that subtropical moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific that we had this past weekend. That means that we probably won't end up with the warm conveyor belt and shouldn't have a completely cloudy warm-sector. That said, the ETA didn't handle the past system very well at all, so this should all be taken with a grain of salt. I'm assuming this will turn into a late Thurs/Fri/Sat event given the too-fast bias of the models in these situations. If the trough digs more than progged, it'll probably start to tap into some subtropical moisture and we'll end up with widespread cloudcover as we had with this previous system. Thursday looks pretty good for tornadic storms, given strong shear profiles and decent instability (1500-2000) throughout KS. That said, again, the ETA is hanging the trough/vort max in the west longer and thus this will probably turn out to be a Friday event for the plains. But alas, that's left to another thread.
 
:( all the locals and the WChannel , is mentiong clouds all over agin this looks to paly out liek the last system did... i prb will avoid getting to worked up with this system... all it takes is SEVERE WEATHER or OUTBREAK to get everyone riled up...



jsut remember its OCT}" but yes anything can happen...



Keep your stick on the ice"

dlater
 
I don't think I'd take the CPC's words too literally... Afterall, they are focused more on synoptic scale, medium to long-term forecasts. Yes, there is some collaboration between the SPC and the CPC when it comes to the mentioning of severe weather in the CPC Hazards outlook, but I wouldn't read into it too much... Not to mention, why not make our own forecasts? Afterall, it's only one take on the situation. In the end, the CPC isn't spending too much time or energy trying to forecast the severe weather this far out, as they're busy looking at temperature/precip trends for 5-10-30-60-90 days out.

Personally, I see some things to like, and others not to like. It seems, per the ETA, that we won't have that subtropical moisture fetch from the eastern Pacific that we had this past weekend. That means that we probably won't end up with the warm conveyor belt and shouldn't have a completely cloudy warm-sector. That said, the ETA didn't handle the past system very well at all, so this should all be taken with a grain of salt. I'm assuming this will turn into a late Thurs/Fri/Sat event given the too-fast bias of the models in these situations. If the trough digs more than progged, it'll probably start to tap into some subtropical moisture and we'll end up with widespread cloudcover as we had with this previous system. Thursday looks pretty good for tornadic storms, given strong shear profiles and decent instability (1500-2000) throughout KS. That said, again, the ETA is hanging the trough/vort max in the west longer and thus this will probably turn out to be a Friday event for the plains. But alas, that's left to another thread.

Yes, I agree that this event will likely slow down with each model run...

As far as severe weather, anything is possible at this point, since the models can go bust to boom in a 6hr run - Anything from no severe reports to a full scale outbreak - It's just too early to tell...

It would be cool to have a "Devils Night Serial Derecho" across the upper Midwest On the 30th. I'm not too fancy on the idea of supercells in October, with a very strong mid level flow (very fast storm speeds), it's hard to catch anything...
 
Ok im no weather expert i have been paying close attention to the systems coming in a nd out did any of you by chance here this prediction about SNOW on sunday for CO/Western NE/WY or something and Severe weather to the east on the 30th? for Midwest/Upper Midwest? ill go to Des Moines IA or further for a chase" if it looks to good" but im not holding my luck just yet... all i know is I DONT WANT SNOW YET lol


thoughts anyone :?:
 
Get ready, there's gonna be a Devils Night Derecho with supercells ahead of the main line, going the Central Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley :wink:

At least, thats my biggest hope - Something big and widespread so I am guaranteed to at least get something, and the ETA at 84 hours doesn't look half bad :D
 
Hey guys...

After all the posts and weather-related talks around NWS, I went ahead and changed the date in this thread to better reflect the timing of this system as everything seems to be converging on late Thurs into Friday. Looking over a few HWO over the area, general thought it a Friday event. I would tend to agree with that as well as most people here seem to.
 
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