10-29-04 FCST: Midwest & Plains

Yeah, I haven't been following it very closely - looked too far out to bother IMO. Wholesale changes in the medium range forecast model runs seems more the norm than the exception during the fall season. Now that it is getting closer - I gave it a look using the 00Z GFS and the 12Z ETA - and neither showing much of interest. Can't say as I'm surprised that it looked "better" on the longer range GFS - seems that happens quite often - maybe associated with the change in model resolution in the longer range forecasts - I dunno.

Also, see why folks in the tree country of the Great Lakes might still be interested - that's why I called it a "locals only" kind of event. If we wanna buy into long range forecasts - then we might as well get excited about the system forecast by the GFS to emerge ~ middle of next week. Snow in OMA?

Glen
 
My excitement hasn't been there from the beginning after last week.. at least last week, I gambled.. this week, I won't even do that. It looks like it'll be a Autmn scenario playing out well too far east for me to even consider, assuming I could get it off anyway. My concern is snow, and that's gonna be later in the weekend. I'll keep an eye on things to cover my Ohio interests, but outside of that, I don't foresee this to be a Plains episode.. last weekend before Daylight Savings Time ends, so remember that after this weekend, you're back to chasing til darkness falls at 5.
 
Yeah, I haven't been following it very closely - looked too far out to bother IMO. Wholesale changes in the medium range forecast model runs seems more the norm than the exception during the fall season. Now that it is getting closer - I gave it a look using the 00Z GFS and the 12Z ETA - and neither showing much of interest. Can't say as I'm surprised that it looked "better" on the longer range GFS - seems that happens quite often - maybe associated with the change in model resolution in the longer range forecasts - I dunno.

Also, see why folks in the tree country of the Great Lakes might still be interested - that's why I called it a "locals only" kind of event. If we wanna buy into long range forecasts - then we might as well get excited about the system forecast by the GFS to emerge ~ middle of next week. Snow in OMA?

Glen
Click to expand...

Tree country, that's an understatement here in MI, LOL

Anyway, I agree that the event is still far out... But I almost positive that the synoptic storm itself will occur, just the specifics are obscured...

GFS has been consistant with this system before the last "bust" even hit the southern Plains... Other med. range models such as the UKMET and GEM all have similar looking storms, with of course somewhat minor differences in strength and location... 12Z GFS even has a very large area of 65-70F dewpoints covering the entire Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes region, with a southerly surface flow and a westerly 500mb flow...
 
I love the 12z euro with a strong low near maquette and the cold front over lk michigan. If there is some sun ahead of the front, the timing could be perfect over lower michigan. Again, the big IF is the sun, and of course the timing which i would think will change before sat.

Right now, its cloudy outside my window, temps are in the low 50s and there is little wind. Any kind of interesting weather, even at 5-6 days out, this time of year is a welcome.
 
Yeah, so the great lakes are crappy territory. But...the forecast still looks prime over Illinois on Friday...and much of Illinois is some of the flattest land your going to find...not to mention the road network in central Illinois is unbeatable. I can understand the plains chasers not wanting to come all the way out here because its too far for a fall event...but I dont think terrain is an issue yet. It looks good far enough south that I wouldnt be worried about being limited to chasing Michigan yet...
 
I agree with Glen & Tony in that this system doesn't look very promising for tornadic cells overall-- definitely not impressive enough to warrant a drive out to SE Iowa from here :roll: ! As of 12Z ETA looks like somewhere around SC/SE IA stands the best chance of seeing tornadic activity (probably very brief) with ETA forecasting the highest CAPE, moisture, best colocation of wind profiles (mostly convergence), & synoptic forcing. ETA's forecasting decent speed shear which, assuming the CAPE forecast verifies in that area, should be more than enough for tornadic sups. Will be interesting to watch this event unfold on Fri.
 
Well, I'll be watching the SWODY3 come out tomorrow morning no doubt. I'm out in Dekalb which can be flat and treeless depending on where you are. I wonder how strong the WAA will be. Right now, we have already passed our forecast high of 59-61, and are up to 63. I would think we'd reach 65. Imagine if the sun was out. Anyway, I'd like to see some warm air advection this strong come Friday.
 
In the last few weeks, some of our FCST thread posts have begun to drift. Since it's October and things are winding down, the moderators are mostly looking the other way, but I'd like to remind everybody that Target Area is the one and only area of the website where we try to maintain a consistently high quality of posting, and if new people come and see posts that are patently off-topic or pointless, they might decide not to return.

Simply having access to post in Target Area does not obligate one to do so. If you don't have anything substantial to say about the forecast, try reading and learning instead of forcing yourself to make something up, or relaying what some televisoin weathercaster said. It's almost certain that the chasers reading these posts are aware of that kind of ultra-generalized information and don't find it helpful.

Here are the rules for Target Area again:

http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039

Thanks.
 
18Z ETA just came out, and it's deeper than the 12Z GFS :shock: , which is a big turnaround from the 12Z run.

Obviously gonna have to wait a couple days until models clamp down on a general solution, but I am still thinking that something decent might occur - Again, maybe not the best chaseable convection, but I'm game for derecho/squall line stuff, since something is better than nothing this time of year.
 
It also seems as if the models are doing the opposite of which they did with last weeks system, and are speeing it up. Last couple runs Friday looked more western and central Iowa, into Missouri...however on the last runs...its pushing more into far eastern Iowa into much of Illinois and southeastern missouri.
 
It also seems as if the models are doing the opposite of which they did with last weeks system, and are speeing it up. Last couple runs Friday looked more western and central Iowa, into Missouri...however on the last runs...its pushing more into far eastern Iowa into much of Illinois and southeastern missouri.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't buy into that too much just yet. Models tend to have problems with timing until the system actually comes on-shore, and is sampled by RAOB data... Even with the system forecasted to deepen significantly, the ETA wants to speed it up :?
 
Squall line across Lakes Saturday?

The last half of the active convective season here in Ontario has been abysmal. This weekend’s system looks like the best chance for active convection I have seen in a while.

I know it is rather early to put much stock in the 0Z eta output for a storm ~84 hours into the future, but if it verifies, there are several things that look good to me.

Despite the lack of surface based CAPE (lowest 100 mb mixed parcels all below 500 J/Kg), I suspect that if a mixed parcel from say 900-800mb was calculated, there might be significant elevated instability over MI and ON Saturday morning. Along the max PW axis the 850 dews/temps are progged at about 58/60. That seems pretty good. I wish the eta output would include maximizing the 100 mb thick mixed parcel cape at whatever height it might be found. The 0-6 Km SRH looks good too…..mostly >200 m2/s2. This is better then most of our summer events.

I wonder if we may get a major squall line here in ON Saturday, even if it is an elevated system. We need rain here, as our streams are running quite low. Precip amounts might be decent if we get some warm advection precip first, and not just the squall line.
 
I don't take the models seriously at all until they are within 60hrs. Anything beyond that is more or less a vague, murky prediction.
 
Any comments on the SWODY3?

Got mildly excited by the SWODY3 this morning, with all of WI in a slight risk, much of it within the 25% line (which if everything pans out as expected should turn into at least a MDT risk by Day 1). However I've seen the SWODY3 bust so many times that I no longer put a whole lot of stock in it. I'm not much for interpreting forecast models yet so does anyone have any comments? On the money? Way off? Or is Day 3 just too far off to tell and everybody (including SPC) might as well not even try?
 
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