Robert Dewey
EF5
Re: Any comments on the SWODY3?
While one can certainly look at the synoptic setup and say it's favorable for severe weather across the Midwest/Great Lakes, it would be hard to focus in on any specific area this far out... But, looking at the latest 12Z ETA coming in, I would say that the WI/IL/Eastern IA look good for FRI, but that will probably change, and it's too far to get any more specific than that...
Got mildly excited by the SWODY3 this morning, with all of WI in a slight risk, much of it within the 25% line (which if everything pans out as expected should turn into at least a MDT risk by Day 1). However I've seen the SWODY3 bust so many times that I no longer put a whole lot of stock in it. I'm not much for interpreting forecast models yet so does anyone have any comments? On the money? Way off? Or is Day 3 just too far off to tell and everybody (including SPC) might as well not even try?
While one can certainly look at the synoptic setup and say it's favorable for severe weather across the Midwest/Great Lakes, it would be hard to focus in on any specific area this far out... But, looking at the latest 12Z ETA coming in, I would say that the WI/IL/Eastern IA look good for FRI, but that will probably change, and it's too far to get any more specific than that...