06/12/05 Talk: Central Plains

[Brandon Clement]

I just drove though heavy rain 40 miles SE of Childress on hwy 287. When I came out on the NW side of the storm i hit warm air with the sun blazing and it looks like it is burning all the junk off and is here to stay. We will see....

 

[bill mudd]

DODGE city update:
The leading edge of this storm is now firing already already just west of Dodge...could be start of something
the temps are low but some clearing to the west of me could help

 

[Shane Adams]

Sitting in Shamrock right now at the Best Western. Looks like the rest of the group made a good call by staying out here last night (I wanted to go back to Norman because I am whipped). Our plan is to stay put - we like where we are.

You have to feel good when you're in your target and Jeff Piotrowski walks up and says he's "staying here till 1-2-3 o'clock."

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

SItting in Wichita Falls waiting for chase partner to get here. We should be leaving about noon or shortly after out west from Childress towards Floydada (general area).
Good luck everyone. We will need it.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Its Childress or Bust for me. I was going to play the outflow boundary up north, but it looks more like a cold front anymore and I just don't like the chances of anything riding that and producing tornadoes on that fact.

Looks like the area W of the current stuff going on just to my south is prime for supercell development. CAPEs look to be pushing 5000 in some areas and with Deep Layer sheer in the 45kt range look to be extremely conducive for supercells. Add to the fact that you have low-level shear vectors in the 30kt range with LCLs quite low and I think you may have the attendant risk of a big tornado or two. My concern right now is are storms going to be clustering up too fast and killing any kind of a discrete chance. I'm also very interested to see how far into SW Oklahoma this risk will lay. I'm gonna be watching for the OUN HWO to see what they say then I'm heading out in about 30 mins or so.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Leaving for Childress now...going to try to meet up with Rocky there as long as the action doesn't start first. Good luck and happy hunting.

 

[Billy Griffin]

sitting here in Lawton right now. Surface winds are really nice, blue skies to the west. The only thing I don't like is the latest discussions... seems like they're still uncertain and I didn't notice any mention of "significant" anywhere. I'll read on, good luck everyone !!

Correction... looks good just south of us, so think we'll head toward Vernon shortly, then make plans from there.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Seems OUN shares my feelings that we could see some really higher end severe wx if we get any sort of isolated supercells. But they also don't sound too confident that'll happen just yet. If things look to be more isolated or scattered supercell wise, this could be a huge day, or things could cluster up and it'll just be another day of severe wx. Such is the life in 2005, hopefully, with this being our possible last big hope here in the S. Plains, we can finally break through and have another huge day like last weekend was...

 

[J Gontesky]

--

 

[Jay Cazel]

A new Tor Watch Box

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am currently monitoring SPC mesoanalysis which shows strong instability heading up into eastern Kansas and I may head out today if conditions warrant. Tornado watch in effect for all of eastern Kansas except those counties that border Missouri. Good luck to those out today in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

 

[nickgrillo]

Currently sitting in Childress, TX with a decent amount of sunshine with a 84/68 T/TD. We might be here for a while, so if anybody wants to come on over here, your welcome. We're in the parking lot of the "Kettle", which has excellent WIFI. By tonight, it will mark one month since I first came here...

 

[rdale]

Pretty sure we all know a source for Tornado / SVR Watches...

===
* NOAA/NWS products or bulletins posted in their entirety are not allowed. If you post such a product, trim it to the bare minimum and always include original informational comments written by you.

 

[Jay Cazel]

Sorry about that....my cut and paste did not work very well.

 

[Glen Romine]

Interestingly a lot of dry air has mixed down (~mid 50 dewpoints in places) in the outflow residual across a good chunk of southwest OK. This could play a role in the later evolution, as it appears the deeper moisture is holding up in two pockets either side - though advection from the south could start to fill in a larger portion of this hole with time. I've been watching one of the lead cells in the early wave now in nw Greer county - but fear it won't turn right quick enough to avoid the fate of most others. Vis sat animation shows the cold outflow is surging south quickly in the eastern panhandle - and may cause a sqeeze play with the dry air pocket to the east. I was surprised to see how quickly the cell ne of LBB deteriorated, after looking impressive for a while. Hopes for dryline convection still seem reasonable further south - but worried about the limited space further north may offer. I'd try the patient game on storms developing much later to the east - say waiting around the Kingfisher area, or along the line from roughly LBB to south of CDS, where the western edge of the outflow may settle.

Glen