John Sickels
EF2
Sunday is starting to look interesting in the central plains. Too early to tell for sure but could be a similar setup to this past weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST, INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE WEST WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL SET UP SOUTH OF
KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REAL NASTY WEATHER THERE ALSOAT ANY RATE,
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION
AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE IS
FORECASTED TO BE NEAR DRYLINE DURING PEAK HEATING[/color]. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MARCH ITS WAY EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
KS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
SUNDAY COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX DAY FOR THE FA. STRONG
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROTATE IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SFC LOW IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WEST TX WITH FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FA AND DRYLINE
IN/NEAR WESTERN OK/W N TX BY AFTN. WITH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND BNDRYS
NEAR/IN AREA TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.../45-50KTS OVER NW OK/.
HOWEVER....MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS DEPENDS ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVERNITE
AND SUN MORNING...WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
INDICATION THAT INITIATION MIGHT OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH AS IT
DID FRIDAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BECOMING A BIGGER CONCERN
It's about 6.5 hours to Liberal (411 miles) from my place in Lakewood, which assuming we depart my place at exactly 6am (7am CDT), we should arrive no later than 2:00pm CDT with stops. Assuming convection can hold off then, it's another 2 hours (118 miles) to Woodward, Oklahoma if NW Oklahoma verifies as the place to be.
I think I am going to aim to be in Dodge City by 2pm so we can drop straight south into NW Oklahoma on Hwy 283 from there if we need to. That may also shave 30 minutes as its more of a direct shot to and from Dodge as opposed to Liberal (395+116 vs 411+118).
Tricky game plan tomorrow... hopefully things can hold out.. a 2pm arrival time in Dodge City will be awesome if the prime intiation points can stay close to the area. Otherwise it may be a close call! Either way, I think we should arrive in time.
Here's my visual explanation of where I think the best chances lie for my target region... I do expect to drop a bit south of Dodge, but hopefully not by much. And FYI, this isn't going to be a new habit of mine (doing outlook images), but I have a strong feeling about tomorrow in regards to where the best setup will be and this does a better job of showing it!
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