06/12/05 Talk: Central Plains

Sunday is starting to look interesting in the central plains. Too early to tell for sure but could be a similar setup to this past weekend.
 
Normally I would just post a link to the text ~ but that will be over written and the content lost so I am posting it here. While the Forecaster seems very bullish about next week ~ the tropical forecasters are suggesting that we could have a tropical storm in the SW Cab. to deal with and this may cut off the guld moisture by next week. Too far away to dwell on any out come just yet however.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger...tl_latestBW.gif

The AFD from Norman can be found on the June 10th Thread
 
The UKMET has this a a moderate storm / hurricane making landfall at New Orleans on the 12th June at 12z.

New orleans is about 30N,90W

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 20.7N 84.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 10.06.2005 20.7N 84.5W WEAK

12UTC 10.06.2005 21.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.06.2005 25.2N 86.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.06.2005 27.1N 88.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.06.2005 28.7N 89.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.06.2005 29.8N 90.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.06.2005 32.1N 90.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.06.2005 34.2N 90.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.06.2005 35.7N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
 
New Orleans AFD
INTERESTS REMAIN FOCUS ON THE ENERGY EVOLVING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS
WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW FROM THIS ENERGY AND TAKING IT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION. HPC
EXTENDED GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...ITS HARD TO
GO AGAINST THIS THINKING AND THE OVERALL FORECAST SHOULD SOMEWHAT
REFLECT THIS TREND. CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION AND FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL
PLAY A KEY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.


Mobile AFD
CURRENT GFS SHOWS
A LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND
AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWFA FRI NIGHT AND SAT ALSO...THOUGH WILL
HOLD OFF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR NOW. WITH
EXTRA CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SE WILL HOLD TEMPS
TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE OF SLIGHTLY BELOW ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN
THE EXTENDED PDS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONTINUING THROUGH MON
 
The path of this potential tropical low/cyclone will play a tremendous role in this weekend's activity I think. I have a very bad feeling that if we see a tropical system develop in the Gulf, we're going to lose our moisture surface owing to the northerly flow on the west side of the low (through much of the western Gulf). If that becomes the case, we'll end up with modified continental air that's being circulated around the cyclone.
 
Sunday will be the first time since the end of May that I'll be able to get out and chase something without the leash of the real world holding me back. Pending my target for Sunday, I may end up making a very long marathon out of it as I get up or work at 6:45am Saturday and work til about 12:30am (yes, nearly 18 hours). Either I take a quick two hour nap at home or leave straight from work and crash in the car. More refinements will be made once I dive into the forecast...
 
Sunday is my last chase day from what I can see - if there is a snowballs chance in hell the CO upslope or N KS to W KS is a possibliity on Sunday some one feel free to PM me with details as Im sure it will pale with the final TX targets....that will be out of my reach
 
I am really liking the setup for tomorrow, particularly I like NW OK. I don't have time to write up a FCST, but tomorrow looks pretty decent for supercells/tornadoes if this solution pans out, and as of now, I am targetting NW OK...
 
Here are a few posts from NWS Offices in the target areas for tomorrow... good points are in a dark blue/purple.. this is all based upon my KS/OK border target area and the allotted amount of time I have to reach places beyond that...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST, INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE WEST WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING
. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL SET UP SOUTH OF
KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REAL NASTY WEATHER THERE ALSO
AT ANY RATE,
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION
AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE IS
FORECASTED TO BE NEAR DRYLINE DURING PEAK HEATING[/color]. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MARCH ITS WAY EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
KS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

SUNDAY COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX DAY FOR THE FA. STRONG
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROTATE IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SFC LOW IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WEST TX WITH FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FA AND DRYLINE
IN/NEAR WESTERN OK/W N TX BY AFTN. WITH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND BNDRYS
NEAR/IN AREA TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.../45-50KTS OVER NW OK/.
HOWEVER....MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS DEPENDS ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVERNITE
AND SUN MORNING...WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
INDICATION THAT INITIATION MIGHT OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH AS IT
DID FRIDAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BECOMING A BIGGER CONCERN


It's about 6.5 hours to Liberal (411 miles) from my place in Lakewood, which assuming we depart my place at exactly 6am (7am CDT), we should arrive no later than 2:00pm CDT with stops. Assuming convection can hold off then, it's another 2 hours (118 miles) to Woodward, Oklahoma if NW Oklahoma verifies as the place to be.

I think I am going to aim to be in Dodge City by 2pm so we can drop straight south into NW Oklahoma on Hwy 283 from there if we need to. That may also shave 30 minutes as its more of a direct shot to and from Dodge as opposed to Liberal (395+116 vs 411+118).

Tricky game plan tomorrow... hopefully things can hold out.. a 2pm arrival time in Dodge City will be awesome if the prime intiation points can stay close to the area. Otherwise it may be a close call! Either way, I think we should arrive in time.

Here's my visual explanation of where I think the best chances lie for my target region... I do expect to drop a bit south of Dodge, but hopefully not by much. And FYI, this isn't going to be a new habit of mine (doing outlook images), but I have a strong feeling about tomorrow in regards to where the best setup will be and this does a better job of showing it!

050611-outlook.gif
 
Im in DODGE right now...and a big tower earlier has completely evaporated...the temps are going up and it appears to be clearing....tomorrows my last day to chase B4 my migration back to all too sunny CA
(thanks for the guidance Tony L and Scott)
Dont figure to see as many chasers on the KS side of this storm, but who knows?
 
I'm getting concerned that this darn convection over the TX panhandle doesn't seem to want to get out of here very quickly. What initially looked like it was weakening, now looks like a solid line moving very slowly eastward. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm starting to get another "uh oh" feeling about tomorrow.

Still many hours to go, but at this point, midnight now, it's still going strong. :cry: Even looks like new convection going up back to the west of the initial MCS / squall with more stuff on the front range of the NM mountains. :evil:

I don't have enough hair left on my head to keep dealing with this !!
I sure hope I'm wrong and this stuff all blows up into Kansas. Not wishing bad luck on Kansas chasers, but hey, we chasers here in Oklahoma are suffering from severe SDS as we haven't had much of anything. Come one Mother Nature, throw us a bone, something... please ?

Anyone else starting to get a sour stomach and bad feeling about this?
Guess it's too early to throw in the towel just yet. Trying to be optimistic here. :?
 
Going along with what Billy was discussing, this may actually push the main severe threat further south into West-Central Oklahoma. Will have to wait and see just how far south convection developes/extends overnight, and how quickly the area affected by the MCS recovers by mid-morning/early afternoon. One of my biggest concerns is that the amount of convective activity tonight will make for a weak CAP on Sunday. If the whole dryline and frontal zones light up at the same time, or if convection starts to initiate too early in the day, it's game over.

Not going to make a decision on a target area until around 10AM, as there are still too many variables in tomorrows setup.
 
Ill be watching outflow boundaries for tomorrow. I am seeing that storms are staying north of Plainveiw. In the latest ETA/NAM It looked like theres supposed to be a DL buldge near lubbock and AMA tomorrow b/w 18-21z.. now if we can get some sun tomrrow in these areas and the initiation can hold off unlike Friday i would watch the outflow boundary south of AMA and north of Planview. it looks like it might stall there over night. Now i just Hope that it doenst decide to head much more south. and gain more Precip. will have to sleep on this one and see what turns up in the morning.

Congrats to those who scored today. I wish i had not of had to get my car from Hastings NE today. but we did get a great lightning show near Woodward, Ok
 
None taken, Billy

I've only chased twice, and both were in 15% tornado areas. It already looks like I'm going to be in the Medicine Lodge or Enid areas if I want to go after something tomorrow. Isolated storms building in E. Wichita and areas east of Wichita.

I'm more willing to drive farther to a point right now because this will be one of the last favorable setups of the season in the S KS and OK areas. I'll be damned if another line messes up another good setup. Most of the rivers from Wichita south have minor flooding ongoing as it is. I'm sick of these lines of non-severe thunderstorms piling up the flooding rains.

I'm still hopeful if this line will finally move. That's been another problem this week in my area, as the thunderstorms just want to sit around.
 
I hope you're right Kurt, but I'm looking at WV imagery and it's just making me more sick at my stomach with every refresh. The nose of the jet is hauling a$$ almost into NM already, and newer convection is firing rapidly all over the mountains/highlands of NM and back west of Amarillo.

I'm thinking Chris may be right on the outflow boundaries pushing things further south, but in response to that, I'll also say that I'm dog-gone sick of messing with these stupid boundaries.

Why can't we just get ONE darn classic set up that will verify?

I was hoping the system would slow down and kick out late tomorrow, but the way it's looking, at least to me, I'm scared this stuff will just continue to fire, along with more convection ongoing through the night and we'll wake up to a lot of rain, clouds and sorry sad faces among chasers.

Gees, I hope I am wrong. Even though I criticised the forecaster last week, I still wanted this to verify. I have always wondered what crow tasted like anyway. :wink:

I'm just getting a bad feeling on this folks. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
I'm just thinking this stuff continuing to fire is going to erode any kind of cap we have and it's all just going to be an ongoing round of storms from now through Monday morning.

I'm no pro by any means, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
 
More storms going up - now all going linear in southern Kansas moving north. 6 hours away from daylight and storms not only continue, but more are forming in their wake. Thoughts anyone?
 
More storms going up - now all going linear in southern Kansas moving north. 6 hours away from daylight and storms not only continue, but more are forming in their wake. Thoughts anyone?

Yeah...Elk City is looking more and more like the target of choice.
 
If this keeps tracking the way it is, and convection backbuilds any, we'll have two options, actually three... (or more)

1. Del Rio, TX

2. The Ozarks

3. Sit home and watch the TV Land Mini-Marathons

4. Watch old chase videos and remember "back when" it used to storm in Oklahoma.

(my dry sense of humor there)

Convection all over the TX panhandle, southern KS, with new stuff showing up on WV imagery near Midland, TX moving northeast.

I'm getting heartburn !!
 
Convection is now starting to extend further south...beginning to wonder if this line will fire all the way to Midland. Storms now going severe in MW Oklahoma. One interesting item is the isolated convection going up east of Wichita...looks like 3 or 4 cells may be trying to get going.

New day one has a Moderate risk area in SW OK extending SW into Texas. 15% hatched tornado centered on Childress. Looks like lunch in Texas...

ASSUMING PERSISTENT W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES INDEED EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / SRN OK...THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
 
ABOUT FACE LADIES AND GENTLEMAN

SPC not only has gone MDT for Sunday, but I want to know what the hell got up there rear ends for going w/ 15% Tornado probability, thats bordering on high.
 
I'm not really surprised at all by the MOD..matching it up with the axis of highest instability (around 3000 J/Kg). The convection in place should be well north and east of the risk area by late morning. Today showed that these warm sector areas can recover quickly in mid-June (as witnessed near AMA today). I plan on leaving BOU around 8am MDT and will play the north end of the 5% tor in the Scott City vicinity per my forecast in the FCST thread. If anything, I believe the sfc low will be further north tomorrow as hinted at by the latest RUC...so I am still confident that there should be some nice supercell development further north as long as the clouds depart in a timely fashion. Should be interesting to see what the mesoscale features look like 8 hours from now--should have a better grasp on the set-up then...but SPC's outlook looks reasonable to me. This is one of the most potent trofs we've seen come thru this season.
 
I hope something happens down there, as it looks like I will have to go west a ways to the southwest. I am not going that far for a tornado or two, however (panhandles anyway). I hope by some act of God, the grungefest gets out of Oklahoma (NC and C). That's the only place I'm willing to drive to in Oklahoma tomorrow to see something noteworthy.

It may be my last opportunity this year. It could be too conditional for me to drive that far. I'll find out tomorrow after the rivers flood some more. :x

Preliminary thinking may have me somewhere between Pratt and Alva along highway 281, depending on how the convection is going late in the morning.
 
I just woke up from a quick nap and was not shocked to see the new outlook. I would have been very shocked if it was still slight, lets just hope the SPC jinx doesnt' continue. I will be leaving Mississippi in a few minutes without a chase partner. If anyone would like to meet up give me a shout. I should be to my target (SE of Amarillo) about 12-1. Good luck to everyone!
 
Wow. I am currently a hotel room in Woodward, OK and I just measured a 69MPH gust, with a 62MPH gust following seconds later. Sustained winds were about 50MPH for about 5 minuites...
 
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