Billy Griffin
More storms going up - now all going linear in southern Kansas moving north. 6 hours away from daylight and storms not only continue, but more are forming in their wake. Thoughts anyone?
06/12/05 Talk: Central Plains
- Thread starter John Sickels
- Start date
Chris Sokol
EF5
Yeah...Elk City is looking more and more like the target of choice.
Well at the moment im still glad there is a target tomorrow wherever that may be.
Billy Griffin
If this keeps tracking the way it is, and convection backbuilds any, we'll have two options, actually three... (or more)
1. Del Rio, TX
2. The Ozarks
3. Sit home and watch the TV Land Mini-Marathons
4. Watch old chase videos and remember "back when" it used to storm in Oklahoma.
(my dry sense of humor there)
Convection all over the TX panhandle, southern KS, with new stuff showing up on WV imagery near Midland, TX moving northeast.
I'm getting heartburn !!
1. Del Rio, TX
2. The Ozarks
3. Sit home and watch the TV Land Mini-Marathons
4. Watch old chase videos and remember "back when" it used to storm in Oklahoma.
(my dry sense of humor there)
Convection all over the TX panhandle, southern KS, with new stuff showing up on WV imagery near Midland, TX moving northeast.
I'm getting heartburn !!
Chris Sokol
EF5
Convection is now starting to extend further south...beginning to wonder if this line will fire all the way to Midland. Storms now going severe in MW Oklahoma. One interesting item is the isolated convection going up east of Wichita...looks like 3 or 4 cells may be trying to get going.
New day one has a Moderate risk area in SW OK extending SW into Texas. 15% hatched tornado centered on Childress. Looks like lunch in Texas...
New day one has a Moderate risk area in SW OK extending SW into Texas. 15% hatched tornado centered on Childress. Looks like lunch in Texas...
ABOUT FACE LADIES AND GENTLEMAN
SPC not only has gone MDT for Sunday, but I want to know what the hell got up there rear ends for going w/ 15% Tornado probability, thats bordering on high.
SPC not only has gone MDT for Sunday, but I want to know what the hell got up there rear ends for going w/ 15% Tornado probability, thats bordering on high.
Nic Wilson
EF2
I'm not really surprised at all by the MOD..matching it up with the axis of highest instability (around 3000 J/Kg). The convection in place should be well north and east of the risk area by late morning. Today showed that these warm sector areas can recover quickly in mid-June (as witnessed near AMA today). I plan on leaving BOU around 8am MDT and will play the north end of the 5% tor in the Scott City vicinity per my forecast in the FCST thread. If anything, I believe the sfc low will be further north tomorrow as hinted at by the latest RUC...so I am still confident that there should be some nice supercell development further north as long as the clouds depart in a timely fashion. Should be interesting to see what the mesoscale features look like 8 hours from now--should have a better grasp on the set-up then...but SPC's outlook looks reasonable to me. This is one of the most potent trofs we've seen come thru this season.
John MacKay
EF2
I hope something happens down there, as it looks like I will have to go west a ways to the southwest. I am not going that far for a tornado or two, however (panhandles anyway). I hope by some act of God, the grungefest gets out of Oklahoma (NC and C). That's the only place I'm willing to drive to in Oklahoma tomorrow to see something noteworthy.
It may be my last opportunity this year. It could be too conditional for me to drive that far. I'll find out tomorrow after the rivers flood some more. :x
Preliminary thinking may have me somewhere between Pratt and Alva along highway 281, depending on how the convection is going late in the morning.
It may be my last opportunity this year. It could be too conditional for me to drive that far. I'll find out tomorrow after the rivers flood some more. :x
Preliminary thinking may have me somewhere between Pratt and Alva along highway 281, depending on how the convection is going late in the morning.
Brandon Clement
EF4
I just woke up from a quick nap and was not shocked to see the new outlook. I would have been very shocked if it was still slight, lets just hope the SPC jinx doesnt' continue. I will be leaving Mississippi in a few minutes without a chase partner. If anyone would like to meet up give me a shout. I should be to my target (SE of Amarillo) about 12-1. Good luck to everyone!
nickgrillo
EF5
Wow. I am currently a hotel room in Woodward, OK and I just measured a 69MPH gust, with a 62MPH gust following seconds later. Sustained winds were about 50MPH for about 5 minuites...
bill mudd
EF4
Ground observation:
not to want to cofirm any of this but storms are firing to the west and getting precip here in Dodge, and there is so much haze I can't see stars...
"just a feeling" (not to quote anyone)
hmmm 25 year, whaa? hope Im wrong
not to want to cofirm any of this but storms are firing to the west and getting precip here in Dodge, and there is so much haze I can't see stars...
"just a feeling" (not to quote anyone)
hmmm 25 year, whaa? hope Im wrong
David Wagener
EF2
Watching this line progress into Western Oklahoma now and hope it keeps on moving or dies out. Would expect the outflow boundary to just up just north of Childress back towards The City. Other than that, not going to waste time with long explanations tonight as it won't settle until these storms find a place to die out.
Initial feeling all day was in an area from Sayre to Childress to Altus to Elk City. I think this should still be pretty good. Will probably leave Norman to get to Sayre and then decide which way to go. The NW may hold some promise still - as I always tell myself to follow the low and avoid moderate risks. However, the name of the game is to gamble and sometimes you just have to put in on the line.
If we clear out like we did today...I have a feeling a lot of chasers coming out of the city will be torn which way to go on the north/south roads off of I-40.
Planning on leaving at noon right now unless it looks like we need to go sooner or later if its going to be a crud day.
Initial feeling all day was in an area from Sayre to Childress to Altus to Elk City. I think this should still be pretty good. Will probably leave Norman to get to Sayre and then decide which way to go. The NW may hold some promise still - as I always tell myself to follow the low and avoid moderate risks. However, the name of the game is to gamble and sometimes you just have to put in on the line.
If we clear out like we did today...I have a feeling a lot of chasers coming out of the city will be torn which way to go on the north/south roads off of I-40. Planning on leaving at noon right now unless it looks like we need to go sooner or later if its going to be a crud day.
Anthony Silver
EF4
IMO, I think the setup tomorrow is a big question mark. It's all gonna depend on where the MCS activity and the outflow boundaries end up by tomorrow morning. Unfortunately I wont be able to chase tomorrow, but if I did have the time, my target areas would be in one of two places 1) Western TX, into the Oklahoma Panhandle or 2) North Central OK into Southern Kansas. For those of you who like night chases, Eastern KS and Western MO might be in line for a fairly significant nocturnal severe weather event after 10 PM, based on the earlier AFD and HWO from the Pleasant Hill Forecast Office. It doesn't surprise me that the SPC placed parts of OK and TX under a 15% hatched tornado threat. I do agree with them to some extent considering the instability, shear and shortwave that's near that region. The only thing that would shoot down any tornado potential is morning convection. If the storms clear out early, then explosive supercell development would occur by peak heating. If the storms linger around, all bets are off.
Chris Sokol
EF5
Things are clearing out nicely in SW Oklahoma/W Texas. Much of the area did not see much if any precip at all. Moisture should not be as much as an issue, and if we are lucky, cloud cover will be minimal.
Still targeting Childress for around noon.
Still targeting Childress for around noon.
Anthony Silver
EF4
Sounds good for that area. I just looked at the radar...I dont like the monster MCS that's out in Central KS at the moment. Looks like it's headed directly towards KC, and once it gets here it will probably be around for a while. Guess we can kiss our severe weather potential goodbye until late tonight when the next piece of energy is supposed to make it in here. :x
