06/12/05 Talk: Central Plains

[John MacKay]

Well, it's looking better as far as trying to get convection to move out of the NC OK/SC KS area. There is still some wayward convection in the OK panhandle into NW parts of OK that will move into SC KS and the counties bordering KS in NC OK. Enid may miss those storms.

The bad news, convection is firing in E. NM into the W. Texas panhandle at this moment. And a severe thunderstorm watch (it just keeps getting worse) until 11 AM for the panhandles.

I'm really hoping some sort of cap starts forming, or else I may be sticking at home. Too much convection developing at the wrong time.

I also just went out to get the newspaper and saw some spots of blue sky toward the Wellington-Winfield-Ponca City corridor, so hopefully, there is going to be potential for some nice heating in the areas not getting rained on. Maybe it can burn off the convection in OK (it may not, but I'd like to see the sun get involved once in clearing out the area).

 

[Chris Sokol]

This morning's AFD is interesting reading:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/productview.ph...p?pil=OUNAFDOUN

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KS...NW OK...AND PANHANDLES HAS
NOT HAD MUCH SUCCESS IN MOVING OR DEVELOPING S OR SE SO FAR. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS IT WILL BE A BAD SIGN FOR OK AND N TX.
_____________________________________________________________

WE THINK THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF GIANT HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.
_____________________________________________________________

THIS ONE COULD GO EITHER WAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EARLY OR WIDESPREAD STORM INITIATION SHORT-CIRCUITS THE WHOLE THING.

*EDIT* New HWO is also out:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/productview.ph...p?pil=OUNHWOOUN

Time to start packing the vehicle...

 

[Tony Laubach]

Is it bad that I'm up before the sun... what a complicated crap shoot today is gonna be.. my chase partner will be here within the hour and we'll be on the road by 7am CDT. Our initial target is Dogge City by 2pm and hopefully as far south from there as we can before things start to go. It's going to be a complicated, close, and maybe painful day today with all the mesoscale uncertainties we're seeing this morning. Was not very pleased to get up to a SVR WATCH for the Panhandles, so hopefully that mess gets out of there shortly.

On the road in less than 30 minutes... hopefully will be in Dodge by 2pm and already shooting south!

 

[John MacKay]

It's looking like Enid might be an early target for me. I may need a nowcaster, so if anyone out there is available to do so, pm me by noon.

I think I'll play the NC OK target right now, and if anything big happens to the west (not too far though), I may go there.

Good luck to everyone today. I'm going to church in an hour, so I may ask for some help.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I left Jackson shortly after 2am and I just passed a sign that said Dallas 48 miles. I knew it was going to be a coin flip today and glad that spc has finally realized it. Today has potentioal to be a high risk day and it has the potential to be a 5% hatch. The bad news is driving all this way and seeing a svr watch issued. The moisture should not be a problem taday and the one big question is the cap. Today could be a historic outbreak or it could be like Friiday. Right now I'm just trying to get west and I will stop in Childress and pick my target. The sun is shining bright here, I will try bring some sunshine with me.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

As usual there's not agreement between Ruc and Eta as concerns instability. Ruc gives more of 4000 of cape while Eta a bit less. I like very much the strong deep layer shear that will be in place in those zones that could be support long lived supercell.
IMO there are two zones not bad: the first one is childress and the second one is Dodge city where there's a very strong mid level flow. I'm waiting for the next Ruc runs.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Will likely head north first (DDC) and reevaluate with incoming data a little around 1:00 ... if early convection continues to cloud the issue to the south, may wait around SW KS to see what happens. So far this is making me way too uncomfortable, reminding me of Friday. If southern target clears and can manage to hold off till maximum heating, it could be incredible in the Panhandles today. Have fun and be safe -

 

[bill mudd]

steady rain falling for past 2 hrs in DODGE and no visible signs of any sun yet...are you guys still confident on OKL panhandle?

 

[Jay McCoy]

With all the convection north I am thinking of targeting west oklahoma from I-40 south towards Childress where there has been no convection today and there has been some clearing. I work until 345pm so will have to play catch up anyway but am loaded and ready to leave.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm with Jay on this one. Bill, if you're chasing today, head south toward SW Oklahoma or Childress, Texas. I dont see it clearing out in the PH today with a constant flow of storms and rain coming in. Much of western OK has cleared out along with portions of western north Texas. Wish I could be down there for the show

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, we're probably going to shoot west on I40 to Shamrock and revaluate from there. There is elevated convection occurring in and north of AMA, with a few showers along the tx/nm line between ama and lub. Additionally, there is a patch of showers down near abilene/throckmorton, moving northeast. Righ now, I like the southern/southeastern TX panhandle area best. The storms near and north of AMA may end up reinforcing the OFB or at least deepening the stable layer up there, so I"m not sure how much I like the 'northern' target.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST THIS MORNING...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS MAY BE ADJUSTED OR EVEN UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

No high risk curse!

 

[Philip Flory]

I really don't have much of a clue what to think of this morning after looking at data for the last hour. A look at 12z RUC wants to initiate convection in W TX (S of AMA) next 2-3 hrs and move it EWD into SW OK by 2-3pm. This seems possible, especially givin current radar trends indicating precip redevelopment accross E NM the last 30-45 minutes. I am also somewhat concerned with current convective cluster over C TX.. current radar data indicates this may be trying to expand WWD. Im afraid convection could easily initiate in the next hr or two between the two complexes.. which would heavily limit any significant tornado threat. If convection can manage to hold off until closer to peak heating we may be in buisness.

Im going to hold off and wait another hr in ICT and continue to monitor radar trends.

 

[David Wagener]

Will be staying on plan today for heading to Elk City/Sayre and then probably south from there. Norman HWO is hinting at high risk upgrade if all pans out today. Beautiful morning here in Norman...and if all stays on course it won't be that way later on for some families across the state. Everyone be careful out there, there was a lot of water already dumped in various areas...and lets hope these things stay out in the open country.

Amy, Greg, Bryan and myself will be leaving around noon.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Heading towards Shamrock (we know where wifi is there!) then south, etc. as needed to adjust target. I like the boundary sitting from TUL->OUN->Childress (look at the dp gradient).... looks like the main play to me.

Aaron

 

[Austin Ivey]

sitting in clayton new mexico this morning. what a night! very intense convection passed over us at around 2am dumping a couple inches of hail.

today....for me its a tossup between moving south to amarillo or moving east to guymon and playing SW ks and OK panhandle. The RUC makes me like both areas by 0z. i guess it will be a matter of where the clouds clear first and if we can find some good boundaries to hang near.

sitting in almost 100% sunshine in clayton right now with a dry slot moving out of E. NM...... so think that SW KS/OK panhandle may have the most time for recovery when the dry slot rotates into that area first.

we will hang here until 11am mountain and then make the critical decision.