05/29/04 FCST: Central Plains

[Bill Hark]

I am in Hutchinson, Kansas checking data. There is already clearing and evidence of low level moisture streaming with scattered low level cu when looking out my window. There is already backed winds across central-east Kansas and most of Oklahoma. Dewpoints are already in the low to mid 60's across Kansas and 70 in Oklahoma. I am a little concerned that the 12 Z RUC doesn't have precip breaking out by 00Z except along the Kansas,Nebraska border. May be near the Belleville area. The most backed winds are in that area and into Nebraska. Most of the rest of the region has southerly winds except along the eastern Kansas, Oklahoma b
orders into Mo. I am slightly concerned about the cap farther south though a few isolated supercells are the best for chasing. I will probably start heading north to Concordia but I want to check more data. I am concerned about the local residents as entire towns can be destroyed by one of these potential large tornadoes.

Bill Hark

 

[Shane Adams]

If the SPC is believing the current RUC run, they'll drop the High Risk for N OK and S KS....but I don't think they believe it anymore than I do. I saw earlier where it was mentioned that, due to the unseasonably strong parameters this system is producing, the models would fumble some areas of the forecast. They're showing signs of this now, by bullseyeing the obvious area in the vicinity of the TP (using the standard tendancies). Prety hard to screw that up :wink:

I think the potential in NC OK is being undrestimated by models, and this isn't a regional bias. I just can't grasp that 12c temps can't be overcome with 4-5000 CAPE and such a sharp dryline, all interacting with the main energy later today. But, if the 1630Z cuts out S KS and N OK from the "hotspot", we've still got time to head north to my original target of Concordia.....but right now, I don't think that's neccessary.

We shall see in an hour or so......

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Dewpoint 72.5 and rising still in Velma. I'm debating between Hobart and Clinton right now (actually a little east of both). I'm not worried either way, the isolated nature of the cells indicates to me it will be hard to screw up today as a chaser in Oklahoma. (Now that I've said that, watch it happen for me). Mesoanalysis shows pockets of 3000 cape already in western Oklahoma. The cap was stronger Monday, and we broke that thing with little problem. With a sharper dryline, more moisture, and better parameters, I don't see much uncertainty on if Supercells will form in Oklahoma, its just a question of where. I'm still solid on Hobart area for now, but I am still debating a northward shift to I-40.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Looks like OKC is still included in the high risk in the 1630 Outlook. Time to start getting ready...

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm keeping Hobart, if not a bit further south and west. If a storm gets going in SW Oklahoma, there is some stronger flow at the mid-levels there and I think a storm will go absolutely bonkers in the enviroment down here (actually they will anywhere around the region, but that's another story). So I'm leaving now, good luck to everyone and be safe!

 

[Chris Hayes]

Someone should start a Now forum. Looks like the biggest and potentially most chatastropic event of the year is gonna get underway. shame i'm not there

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

NWS Public Severe Weather Outlook Statement

NWS just posted a PSWO for severe weather in the Southern & Central Plains today. Here are some excerpts from that statement:

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EASTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Chasers, Stand By!! 8) LJK.

 

[Jason Montano]

I'm in Wellington again, at the good ol' motorlodge WiFi hotspot, looks like I am going to head a little west and north. I think Great Bend might be a good area, NWS seems to think the dryline will be located there at time of initiation. I tell you what the low level clouds are sceaming by from the SSW, great 850 winds.

PS: be sure to watch your speeds guys, the cops are out in full force for memorial day weekend.

 

[Justin McCauliffe]

Well, I'm stuck in Denver watching my parent's dogs. Its too bad really, since this is a chase that will be really close to my hometown of Manhattan. So, I'll be doing some arm chair chasing.

However, if I were chasing I'd just drive west till I got to Salina than head up to around Concordia. I think the triple point will really pay off for anyone near it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc0...hr_sfc_mcli.gif - Paints a nice picture of where the triple point will be at 00z.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Sitting in Salina, KS; right when I was expecting.. going to grab some Wendy's and gas (not like that), then decide whether to hang here in Salina or shoot a hair south towards McPhearson. Right now, I am pretty content with things right here, clear skies, warm temps, and nice dewpoints. Winds are screaming from the south right now (they always issue wind advisories when I come thru KS).

Reading up on everyone's posts and checking the latest surface analysis; things look like they'll come together in/close to this area. Right now, I am in no hurry to leave. Will wait it out for a little bit and see what develops.

From Salina...