WINTER STORM NOW 12/01/07-12/02/07: KS, MO, IA, NE, SD, MN, MI, WI, IL, IN, OH, NY, PA

Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller

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Winter storm initiation is underway as radar is showing moderate precipitation rapidly developing in the Plains as we switch from models to actual realtime analysis of this winter storm event.

Moderate freezing rain was rapidly developing over central Kansas and South central Nebraska early this morning mainly NE of a Dodge City to Goodland, KS line. Intensification of precipitation appears to be rapid with large scale moisture advection.

This thread is for current radar and surface observations and discussion as-it-happens through the life of this winter storm event.
 
Update for:
KSUX

2:54 AM, Midlevel saturation overspread Sioux City according to Radar
3:11 AM, First flakes of snow began to fall, no mixture
3:40 AM, Light snow began falling steadily.

Temperature here has actually dropped a degree and winds have picked up substantially since precipitation onset at least here locally. Snow is powdery and is blowing on the roads and sidewalks.
 
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A light glaze on some exposed surface here at Dodge City with 30F...holding tough... probably at or below 32F until about 13 or 14z perhaps. Then by 20z, 50-60mph wind gusts from the southwest! :eek:
 
Window for freezing rain has already closed for KC metro. Got a very thin layer of ice on vehicles in the parking lot here in north KC. Parking lot itself is more wet than slick, not much accumulation there. Blessedly, it looks like intense moisture advection helped offset the wetbulbing, with sfc temps only dropping ~2F across much of northeast KS and northwest MO at the onset of precipitation.
 
Not all that bad here in Lincoln, stepping out the front door is a bit treacherous but at this time I'd estimate only half of what is falling is freezing, sidewalks are slick in some spots and just sort of slushy in others, roads appear to be primarily just wet. Warm surface air is already working North Beatrice is reporting 32 already, still appears just to the North of the Omaha Metro will get the worst, the Wayne NE to Storm Lake IA area should be or will be shortly experiencing rain and their surface temps remain in the lower 20, 19 at Sioux City cold surface air should hold tough there a little longer.
 
Damn, I went to sleep a little after 1 with nothing going on anywhere. Wake up 5:45 and dang does it look like a mess outside. Will have to get some pictures before the power goes out. Trees look to be sagging some already. I wonder who, if anyone, that gets freezing rain will manage to not get above freezing. Warming looks like it's on schedule more than I figured it would be already.

I80 Omaha to Lincoln closed....impassable.
 
Dustin Wilcox said:
Not sure if that isn't just more of a precautionary move, as based on treated road conditions here in Lincoln I can't imagine its really all that bad if they treated it.
Click to expand...

They were reporting several jackknifed semis on it. Wouldn't take many of those, lol. Man, whoever near here that doesn't break 32 today is hosed. Wonder if the Storm Lake IA area will or not. 22 there still.

http://www2.dor.state.ne.us/Webcams/Default.aspx Some good web cams on there. Blair's looks like it's going to be blocked before long, lol. Click on Gretna then the west of bridge one.
 
Our forecasted high temp today is for 30F! :eek: Snow is falling in portions of western and central Iowa and light snow is invading my area but as of yet is not reaching the ground. A cold front will impact my area tomorrow dropping the temps into the lower 20Fs tomorrow afternoon and lows will be in the single digits to lower teens Sunday and Monday night which will only make this more of a nasty situation due to the probability of many persons here not having heat because of widespread and extended power outages (if this storm pans out).
 
I stayed up as long as i could, at least 2:30. I just got up maybe 10 minutes ago. I went upstairs to look and even though its dark out, i can see the trees are iced over. The grass is covered as well. Not sure how the roads are, they look slick, but could just be wet. I dont know how long the ice will last, its already 30.
 
Latest Surface Analysis shows the Low over Utah already at 996 MB!! Nothing here yet, appears to be evaporating before reaching the surface. Total saturation should occur very soon here, and get things under way, temp sitting at 27 degrees...
 
Ahhh, the calm before the storm. Just cloudy here right now, with some virga streaking overhead. Still a few hours away from precip. The wind is very light out of the SE. Boy will that change by this afternoon!

I went to bed around midnight wondering if the models were a bit too wet too soon with this storm. But now just looking at the models I'm amazed at how much the precip just exploded all over the place out to the west.

The general consensus in my area is a quick 1-2" of snow, followed by brief sleet, and then a 3-6hr period of freezing rain. So, anywhere from 1/3"-2/3" of glaze expected, along with 40+mph wind gusts.

Man I hope we all can be lucky enough to retain our electricity!
 
Looks like most locations south of Hwy 30 in E NE are very near freezing if not already creeping above; melting has began here in Lincoln. Trees and powerlines ended up with a pretty solid coating 1/4"-1/3", we're lucky surface temps weren't just a little cooler.

I-80 from Lincoln to Omaha now reopened as well. Looks pretty awesome outside, I'm guessing some will have some pretty cool pictures to show!!!
 
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1/5 inch of ice in Hastings

Just took a few measurements outside and came up with 1/5 inch of glaze here in Hastings as of 700am. Things really deterioriated within the last few hours. We are currently holding at 30F and thankfully the freezing line is only a few hours away with afternoon highs in the mid 40s possible. Considering what we currently have here...this can't bode well for folks back in my home state of IA. Wow did this thing come together rapidly once the isentropic lift kicked in!
 
Yeah anywhere in northern IA(maybe as far west as Sioux City area) that doesn't break 32 is hosed. Radar filling in a bit back to the south. If the sfc winds can stay backed there long enough, that should really hold off the warming some. Teens to low 20s up there, I'm guessing can hold on for a good while. Then the cold front starts to push southeast later, which will lock areas up there below freezing. It may be interesting as that upper low center pivots out much later too. Wind picking up here and the trees are beginning to talk.

Interesting to loop the sfc pressure/wind on the spc meso page and watch the tendancy for them to back in nw IA right now. Feed all that cold air west right into that heavy precip area.
 
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Ames has a dusting of snow, not much for freezing rain yet maybe a very thin layer on a few objects. You can truly see which areas across Iowa have received the ice by checking out the IEM Webcams. Several of the cameras already 'iced over'... I-35 south of Des Moines is under travel not advised conditions. We must have a bit of ice on the roads, just heard a car spin its' tires on some outside...

The freezing rain had begun to fall once again here, its' quick to accumulate and I can already see it now on the roofs and windows where I couldn't before. I'll likely be updating my blog through the whole day, have a couple of neat links on there as far as freezing rain conditions thanks to the IEM...
 
Unless I'm missing them, I'm not seeing too much in the way of sleet observations being reported. That is far from what some of the models were suggesting. That can be confirmed by the lack of high reflectivities, or bright banding, across the entire precip area. This is not what you want if you want to keep your power lol. This means there's a very wide swath of freezing rain, with just a little snow on the northern and eastern edges, and not all that much sleet mixed in. It appears to really be coming down out in central and western IA, on into eastern NE.

BTW, why is the DMX and OMA radar still stuck in clear air mode?
 
We've had some sleet here, although not much and its' been mixed in with the more prominent freezing rain. So it's still there and falling, but it seems like the freezing rain has definitely taking over quicker than some models thought.
 
rdale said:
Probably because of the lack of high-reflect returns... No need.
Click to expand...

That's not the reason. Local radar has showed the higher returns. They can also be seen on the spc meso page radar.
 
We've had a bit of sleet, but mainly freezing rain here in Western IL.

It looks as if the heaviest glaze will occur roughly along a Sigourney, IA - Sterling, IL line. I wouldn't be surprised if some locations in far NE IA or NW IL receive 0.50"+ glaze.
 
Posting on behalf of Craig Maire.

There is already a half inch of sleet on the ground in Waterloo, IA. It is supposed to turn to freezing rain and there is a possible ice accumulation of an inch or more. Craig is heading out to video tape what he can and will report later.

be safe man
 
Well, some snow flurries are beginning to fall here finally. To the west out in the QC the live news break-ins show they've picked up a quick burst of snow. Just enough to whiten the ground. Winds are picking up a bit finally, probably a bit over 20mph. Stronger winds are still out in IA where radars show it's really coming down.

Edit: Make that snow is falling now. Went from flurries to more respectable snowfall in a matter of a few minutes...
 
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